Argosy Property

[Waltzing]

buy some... buy some ... more of them...

[Waltzing]

well its even better buy now!!! its as if the central north island area is a dead zone... ITS NOT... travel out of auckland ... sorry no trains like in sweden where you can wonder along on electric rail and hope off with a bike and wonder around... but you can drive your car down to karapiro and see the developments from the car window and there are others not far off the main road on your car maps...

Huge warehouses going up on what was farm land off the main motor way...

the drive from auckland to the turns off to Tauranga Rotorua and see the growth..

and that is in the recession....

The country may actual be in an advantageous position if it stay politically stable...even thought wellington does everything it can to stop it...

all those liberal studies students who graduated at uni over the last 50 years and created the Great Southern Bureaucracy...



 

[Dolcile]

A lot of Red in the REITs today.  I wonder what is driving that ?

[Apollo]

A lot of Red in the REITs today.  I wonder what is driving that ?

At a guess the higher than expected rise in CPI inflation, it might mean higher interest rates and lower asset values, particularly interest rate sensitive assets like commercial property.

I was reading about the Japanese govt's long term interest rates rising but not sure if this would affect NZ.

Could be something else, I am just guessing.

[Basil]

A lot of Red in the REITs today.  I wonder what is driving that ?

Good question.  Feels like an overreaction to last weeks very slight inflation miss and talk of the OCR normalizing to a neutral level 3% next year but is that really all that bad ?

Average target price of 4 analysts is $1.278.  https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ARGOSY-PROPERTY-LIMITED-10859583/consensus/

P.S. Gosh, that was a sector wide move of significant magnitude today.  I also wonder what has spooked investors in commercial property shares ?

[Waltzing]

be the rise in the longer end of the yield curves .. its a recession a long one.. imagine the pounding the country has taken...

nerves on markets are shot... or rather dulled...

no one is expecting anything good...

else the current government would be well ahead in the polls....

wait till the next lot come in and cripple the growth....

then the OCR will be cut...

[winner (n)]

BNZ guy says -

We've pulled forward our forecast start to the Reserve Bank's tightening cycle. We now see a 25bps OCR hike in September and a follow up in December. We'd been talking about this risk in light of the improving eco-pulse. But couple that with today's uncomfortable shift in the inflation outlook and our old forecast for a Feb 2027 start looks late. Still a long way to go with plenty of twists and turns but we think this outlook better centralises the risk profile.

[Ferg]

If the Government have any influence then any raise just prior to an election is unlikely IMO.

[winner (n)]

Guy in local cafe this morning asked me what's up with the ARG share price

I said 'look at that dividend yield'

He ewplied 'yeah bright but I bought around $1.30 when Mark Lister from Craig's was telling punters to buy high yield REITs instead of keepin my cash on term deposits and now I'm 10% down'

I told him better forget them for a few years ...collect 5he divies and you'll be OK

Maybe bad advice ....dont come across him that often

[Basil]

Must admitted it's very surprising to see them at $1.17.

[777]

Change from last Friday on listed property.

PFI   2.360   2.230   (0.130)   (5.508%)
ARG   1.220   1.170   (0.050)   (4.098%)
SPG   1.340   1.295   (0.045)   (3.358%)
KPG   1.030   1.000   (0.030)   (2.913%)
GMT   1.930   1.905   (0.025)   (1.295%)
IPL   1.120   1.110   (0.010)   (0.893%)
PCT   1.155   1.150   (0.005)   (0.433%)

[Dolcile]

Seems over done to me.  I've put a big order in for some units in the Kernel NZ Commercial Property Fund. 

[Waltzing]

when the market realise that AI will take maybe a decade to mature and the funding crunch comes at a DOT COM moment investors may think defensive is good.. and some really big geo political risk land somewhere.. 1.00 to 1.20 might look cheap...

silver just moved big... and it was DOWN... before you could hock off the family silver.... pitty lots of silver round here could be moved...

[winner (n)]

Over the last month NZ 10 Year Rate gone from 4.39% to 4.62% .... and still trending up .........and property stocks are all down .... next week could be interesting

ARG -6.4%
KPG -4.7%
PCT -2.9%
GMT -1,4%
PFI -4.2%
SPG -8.3%
VHP -3.5%

[Otago K]

Over the last month NZ 10 Year Rate gone from 4.39% to 4.62% .... and still trending up .........and property stocks are all down .... next week could be interesting

ARG -6.4%
KPG -4.7%
PCT -2.9%
GMT -1,4%
PFI -4.2%
SPG -8.3%
VHP -3.5%

Yeah, seems to be some commentary around of OCR rates to lift in the second half of 2026. I'm starting to again doubt the sensibility of going overweight on REITs the last 20 months when I thought there were real buying opportunities.