Argosy Property

[BlackPeter]

Total melt down in wellington likely to be a cabinet reshuffle soon? country run by lawyers in wellington? 

Finance minister a lawyer? Maybe her second degree was economic?

NATS in real trouble .. it should have been slash and burn on day one... but none of the incumbents can read a balance sheet.

Does this mean a panic 50 or even 75 point cut?

Triggering a rush to buy PIE yield? as the yield on TD's crashes?

The Nats will now panic and do a behind the scenes cuts to everything they can find? or are they now stuffed...

Things clearly don't look very flash at the moment. The question is just what the other side would deliver, and sofar they well might look still worse ...

[Waltzing]

they are worse... they cant count..

these stocks are hedges against a mal functioning economy...

they need to go 100 .... this just shows that the RBNZ has a huge staff that are studying anything but up to date data...

they have been out for how many quarters now? or is it YEARS!!!

If the country has been under performing for over 2 years its now structural.

[winner (n)]

From another thread Basil asked Could ARG go to $1.40 over the next 12 months? 
A. Yes!

Answer ....YES

[Basil]

Could say similar about KPG. Could KPG go to $1.25 over the next 12 months ?    YES!

[winner (n)]

From another thread Basil asked Could ARG go to $1.40 over the next 12 months? 
A. Yes!

Answer ....YES

Up 3 cents to $1.26 so far today
A lot of term deposits must have matured ...got to put the money to good use
Your $1.40 getting closer by the day

Go Argosy

[Basil]

Topped out at around $1.70 in the last cycle.  I reckon we're still very early in the cycle this time and ARG could go to $1.80 or even more over the course of the next few years as the virtuous cycle of lower interest rates plays itself out.

The virtuous cycle:
Lower interest rates leads to more economic activity, higher occupancy, more earnings, lower capitalization rates which boost NTA, lower funding costs which boosts earnings which boost dividends and many investors looking for decent returns turn to REIT's.  Additionally, the new investment boost immediate 20% tax deduction for new buildings really helps ARG.

Hope RBNZ cut 50 bps next week and kick start the moribund economy. 

[winner (n)]

Topped out at around $1.70 in the last cycle.  I reckon we're still very early in the cycle this time and ARG could go to $1.80 or even more over the course of the next few years as the virtuous cycle of lower interest rates plays itself out.

The virtuous cycle:
Lower interest rates leads to more economic activity, higher occupancy, more earnings, lower capitalization rates which boost NTA, lower funding costs which boosts earnings which boost dividends and many investors looking for decent returns turn to REIT's.  Additionally, the new investment boost immediate 20% tax deduction for new buildings really helps ARG.

Hope RBNZ cut 50 bps next week and kick start the moribund economy. 

Cant resist it mate - you sounding more like Westpac Kelly and other reckonomists evert day ..... and even like Mike Hosking lol

Sorry

[winner (n)]

NZX says Argosy NTA is $1.53 and a dividend yield of 6.178%

If share price goes to NTA and dividend remains the same I suppose yield drops to more like 5.0%

Better than the bank still

But the time to buy more is now eh

[winner (n)]

Not much return on ARG bonds for income hunters

ARG010   3.39%   
ARG020   3.70%   
ARG030   4.12%

[Basil]

Lower capitalization rates on higher occupancy rates on more buildings and at higher lease rates per sq m to drive big increases in NTA over the next few years...you read it here first.  NTA and share price about $1.80 - $2.00 in FY28 or FY29 I reckon.   In the meantime just sit back and collect all those lovely tax free quarterly PIE dividends and get stuck into more shares via the DRIP.  That's my plan.  All you need is truck loads of patience to take advantage of the full benefits of this property cycle.

[Waltzing]

Who did that... WHO DID THAT!  There is no reason to get ahead of the economic cycle and start a buying freeze...1.255...

[winner (n)]

This chart from a recent preso sort of says ARG doesn't trade above NTA

The grey columns have shrunk lately that's good

Just as well this virtuous cycle is different and share price will go above NTA ..,and an increasing NTA as well

.You cannot view this attachment.

[Basil]

They've got quite a few properties under development equals more annual rent plus annual rent reviews on existing properties have been about 3.5% from memory.  That combined with lower capitalization rates on rent as we traverse the bottom of the interest rate cycle and with their gearing level, I'd be very surprised if there weren't meaningful NTA increases over the next 3-4 years.  NTA went from $1.45 in FY24 to $1.53 in FY25.   Worth noting is that NTA was $1.74 in 2022 when interest rates were low.  That gives you a heads-up on where the NTA is headed. We're half way through FY26 already and I expect a similar increase to just over $1.60 this year and further NTA increases in subsequent years.  Even if the share price just went back to trading at NTA, like I said earlier that could be circa $1.80-$2.00 3-4 years from now.    Lower funding costs to boost profitability too...check out the interbank swap rate chart at the bottom of this article.  https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/135448/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-tuesday-bnz-cuts-key-mortgage-rate-sharply  $1.40 is not my target mate.  I'm thinking much higher than that over the due course of time.  They say with age comes wisdom.  I'm not so sure about that but I've been working hard on my patience level's over many years.  Sometimes patience is the hardest skill to master and yet can be the most rewarding.  I think that's the case here. 

[Waltzing]

yes it a buy and dont sell... in an ever increasing risk weight world.. or rather back to normal.. circa since the first big buildings went up.. when was that? Did the guys running those big buildings in the Nile valley make money from them and how much?  whos a whatsit could tell us.. archaeologist Gertrude Bell ... she ran around the place on a camel..and her modern versions.. Bettany Hughes ...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bettany_Hughes...

how much are those buildings worth now...the ones with the pointy bits poking up to the sky's..big investment at the time.. are they paying for themselves now.. anyone got the rate of return on those adjusted for inflation??

gives a whole new meaning to "Investing for the Future"...

[Waltzing]

.... 1.26... how soon 1.30? amazing...building in NZ... lots of big warehouses going up on the motorway south in the wakatoo...