Argosy Property

[Waltzing]

i remember that unit and i picked the big book... everyone else got the small one...

what nightmare always start with beginner guide and then move up...

[Basil]

Not a prediction - just a reminder of the negative correlation between the price for real estate (and REITS) with interest rates as well as the correlation between the price for pseudo bonds with interest rates.

Economy 101.

Gosh are you suggesting you can get an edge on the market and predict the likely future by studying the past.  Surely not 
I'm content to collect the 6.1% net PIE yield forever and a day with this one.

[BlackPeter]

Gosh are you suggesting you can get an edge on the market and predict the likely future by studying the past.  Surely not 
I'm content to collect the 6.1% net PIE yield forever and a day with this one.

As always - it depends.

I assume you realise that there is a difference between extrapolating based on one occurrence of some event, or if you apply generally observed and acknowledged patterns.

Lets take some examples:

If you watch an apple tree with ripe apples and apply Newtons laws, than it is fair enough to assume that these apples (if undisturbed by pickers) will at some stage follow the laws of gravity and fall down to the ground. Important information if you like to make cider.

If we watch however one of Aucklands boy racers crash into one of your neighbours houses, than we can't extrapolate that they will do that next Friday night again - or ever - its just a much more complicated system.

So - ripe apple falling from the tree is something which makes sense to assume. Same thing with the correlation between interest rates and REIT prices.

Boy racer hitting your neighbours house has - as a prediction - a lesser chance to happen again - same as with past performance is no indication for future performance.

But I guess at the end - its all chaotic systems - and even the apple could be hit by a stray bullet of one of Auckland's less friendly inhabitants and explode before it hits the ground. However - its more likely it will drop rather than that it won't.

So at the end - its all about likelihoods. Pick a statistical relevant sample (it worked with many apples before) and you are likely to be fine. Pick a statistical irrelevant sample (this company had two great years, so the next year must be good as well) - and your outcome will be average.

[winner (n)]

A myth, once circulated, can last a long time. That's because our cognitive machines are rife with glitches.

Just saying

[Waltzing]

All the Action lately is in GMT... the marlets loves it....

[BlackPeter]

Well, not a chartist - but I used to draw these lines some time ago ... and to me it looks the SP is now braking out of a falling wedge pattern.

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Anybody who does not worry about falling wedges dropping onto their feet might see this as a bullish signal.

I do.

Discl: holding

[Basil]

I hold quite a few already, noting the deep discount to current NTA of $1.57 and strong tax paid PIE yield and think most classes of property move in closer unison that many are prepared to admit.
Shares trade ex divvy on Tuesday with a theoretical ex price of $1.1134.
At that price the forecast tax paid yield for FY24 is 6.65 / 111.34 = 5.97% = 8.9% gross for those on a 33% tax rate.  About half their portfolio is industrial property.
Hard to see you going too far wrong with those fundamental's.
On the TA front of which I am not expert, but it looks like it would break above the 100 day MA shortly if it were not for it going ex divvy on Friday.  I'm no expert on wedges that's for sure unless they come with sour cream and cheese lol, but it does look interesting BP.   I think it's very unlikely this will become an "abandoned baby" anytime soon even if it has felt that way at times in recent months.   I just hold indefinitely; this is as boring as it gets.  Boring with high yield is good. 

[Waltzing]

YUP with rate at there peek ... a slow climb out is looking likely...

where are rates going to be in 24 months time..

At times like these it always feels like you have plenty of time to react..

But it was march 2020 not long ago...

[Hectorplains]

I hold quite a few already, noting the deep discount to current NTA of $1.57 and strong tax paid PIE yield and think most classes of property move in closer unison that many are prepared to admit.
Shares trade ex divvy on Tuesday with a theoretical ex price of $1.1134.
At that price the forecast tax paid yield for FY24 is 6.65 / 111.34 = 5.97% = 8.9% gross for those on a 33% tax rate.  About half their portfolio is industrial property.
Hard to see you going too far wrong with those fundamental's.
On the TA front of which I am not expert, but it looks like it would break above the 100 day MA shortly if it were not for it going ex divvy on Friday.  I'm no expert on wedges that's for sure unless they come with sour cream and cheese lol, but it does look interesting BP.   I think it's very unlikely this will become an "abandoned baby" anytime soon even if it has felt that way at times in recent months.   I just hold indefinitely; this is as boring as it gets.  Boring with high yield is good. 

Yup, they have good occupancy rates and weighted average lease terms. 

[Cod]

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To identify an exit, compute the target price for by adding the height of the pattern to the upward Breakout level. Pattern height is the difference between the highest high and the lowest low. The upward Breakout level is the highest high.

[winner (n)]

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To identify an exit, compute the target price for by adding the height of the pattern to the upward Breakout level. Pattern height is the difference between the highest high and the lowest low. The upward Breakout level is the highest high.

So ARG $1.55 here we come

Does TA say how long to get there?

[Cod]

Winner
Often, the steeper the descending broadening wedge's trend lines, the faster the price objective is reached.
Retracements are generally twice as fast as the falling wedge was in its formation.
05-01-2022 to 01-05-2023 time 481 days 481/2 = 240 days till 1.55.

NB.
- In 79% of cases, the exit is bullish.
- In 23% of cases, a descending broadening wedge occurs in a consolidation movement.
- In 81% of cases, the pattern's price objective is achieved when the resistance line is broken.
- In 40% of cases, the price makes a pullback in support on the descending broadening wedge's resistance line.
- The break out point (exit) generally occurs at 60% of the length of the falling wedge.

[Basil]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARG/413414/396834.pdf

[Waltzing]

In an attempt to understand all these patterns does it help to study SIN, COS,TAN?

well anyway when it come to fractals its all triangles according to our head tech engineer..

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.07429.pdf#:~:text=Pascals's%20triangle%2C%20shown%20in%20Figure,Sierpinski%20triangle%20or%20Sierpinski%20gasket.

How does one construct a smart building that can rebuilt itself with the help of REGN AI?

You come into work and its where is MY BUILDING!!

AT least he did not tell the Earth Flat joke of Doctor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Feynman...

A lady approached the good doctor and said she knew the earth was flat and it was TURTLES all the way down....

TURTLES... its in his book... you can buy it at your local New York second hand book shop...

A local Librarian had a copy in hamilton as she frequented New York Books shops on tour...

ARG really should have expanded into the Golden Triangle... Its the Next Auckland.

RANDOM.. like the weather today a warm winters day...

[Cod]

Nice back test to breakout line moving away to rise till xmas.
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