THL - Tourism Holdings

Left Field · Apr 17, 2025, 08:43 AM

USA market revenue downturn up to 50% hurting THL

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/450270

....As widely reported in media, there has also been a sharp drop in interest for inbound travel to the USA. thl has experienced a substantial slowdown in new bookings, and elevated cancellations of bookings for the USA rentals high season. Booking intakes for this market from key European countries in the past week have been approximately 40 to 50% down on last year's levels.

.......As a result, thl believes that underlying NPAT in FY25 will be significantly below the current analyst consensus of $45.2M.....

Shareguy · Apr 17, 2025, 10:38 AM

People are avoiding the US. Serious ramifications for US tourism. Not a surprise given Trumps actions.

https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/us-tourism-plunges-into-travel-meltdown-as-new-trump-era-policies-trigger-seventy-percent-drop-from-canada-and-seventeen-percent-from-europe-what-you-need-to-know/

KW · Apr 17, 2025, 12:00 PM

Quote from: Shareguy on Apr 17, 2025, 10:38 AMPeople are avoiding the US. Serious ramifications for US tourism. Not a surprise given Trumps actions.

https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/us-tourism-plunges-into-travel-meltdown-as-new-trump-era-policies-trigger-seventy-percent-drop-from-canada-and-seventeen-percent-from-europe-what-you-need-to-know/

Must be the reduction in Fentanyl traffickers across the Canadian border. Should pick up soon, as they start smuggling Jack Daniels instead.

Basil · Apr 17, 2025, 12:53 PM

Interesting what they said about demand and margins on used campervans worldwide. Clearly shows how this has affected consumer confidence everywhere.

BlackPeter · Apr 17, 2025, 05:29 PM

Quote from: KW on Apr 17, 2025, 12:00 PMMust be the reduction in Fentanyl traffickers across the Canadian border. Should pick up soon, as they start smuggling Jack Daniels instead.

Hardly. Its just that the fasists are already in the US, and no decent human being wants to travel there anymore.

US now is like Germany used to be after Hitlers Machtübernahme in the 1930íes: The laws are not anymore respected, and the Führer / POTUS runs the party, the courts and the parliament. People are imprisoned without due process and without a chance to get their day in court.

You might love it there, you should try, but most people prefer to have their holidays in safer places.

Minimoke · Jun 16, 2025, 08:34 AM

Current SP $1.46/

Takeover offer received at $2.30.. Non binding and a few hurdles to go though yet

BlackPeter · Jun 16, 2025, 10:20 AM

Quote from: Minimoke on Jun 16, 2025, 08:34 AMCurrent SP $1.46/

Takeover offer received at $2.30.. Non binding and a few hurdles to go though yet

Interesting ... and looks like good timing for a T/A after chump managed to bring the share price with his brainless policies into the basement. Anybody buying the company now just needs to wait for the looser chump to fade away. If the banana republic of America subsequently stops kicking its friends and re-establishes a law based system, than tourism might start to flourish again.

Price offer looks ok-ish as well - I would rate THL currently more like $2.50 ... 2.60, but hey, $2.30 is not that far from that and obviously - industries like tourism carry in todays world huge risks which need to be priced in as well. Clearly a much more credible offer compared to the MCK lowball game we just went through.

Basil · Jun 16, 2025, 10:46 AM

Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 16, 2025, 10:20 AMcompared to the MCK lowball game we just went through.

Hope CDL hotels are taking notes about the premium to VWAP being paid here. That's what MCK shareholders need to see. ACC are kingmaker there and just FYI, Crackity and I are in the communication loop with him and have sent our detailed thoughts on the matter.

On the THL bid, I think in the current very heightened geopolitical risk environment, that's a very bold bid which I would be taking with both hands, (actually selling on market today if I was a shareholder)..

Mos · Jun 17, 2025, 11:37 AM

Quote from: Basil on Jun 16, 2025, 10:46 AMHope CDL hotels are taking notes about the premium to VWAP being paid here. That's what MCK shareholders need to see. ACC are kingmaker there and just FYI, Crackity and I are in the communication loop with him and have sent our detailed thoughts on the matter.

On the THL bid, I think in the current very heightened geopolitical risk environment, that's a very bold bid which I would be taking with both hands, (actually selling on market today if I was a shareholder)..

Agree re THL which has been a serial under deliverer over the past few years. Sold at 2.30.

KW · Jul 31, 2025, 05:00 PM

Methinks the whole tourism industry is in decline. Cost of living concerns, clamp down on tourists in places like Venice etc, restrictions on AirBnB, price gouging from tourism operators in places like Las Vegas, end of post-covid "revenge travel" ....

Flight Centre down today.

Flight Centre was dumped, down 8.9 per cent, as it said it would just miss the bottom end of guidance. The travel retailer had already revised that guidance lower in February, blaming growing Middle East tensions, difficult travel conditions in the United States and extra costs in Asia.

Basil · Aug 04, 2025, 10:54 AM

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/tourism/tourism-holdings-rejects-230-per-share-takeover-bid-as-undervalued/57GD7KJAXRHLLK4NUXPT7QSU3U/ paywalled

Board rejects $2.30 takeover offer and thinks they can grow profit massively in the years ahead.
Yes we're probably at the bottom of the cycle but their profit growth target looks very ambitious to me.

Mos · Aug 04, 2025, 07:07 PM

Quote from: Basil on Aug 04, 2025, 10:54 AMhttps://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/tourism/tourism-holdings-rejects-230-per-share-takeover-bid-as-undervalued/57GD7KJAXRHLLK4NUXPT7QSU3U/ paywalled

Board rejects $2.30 takeover offer and thinks they can grow profit massively in the years ahead.
Yes we're probably at the bottom of the cycle but their profit growth target looks very ambitious to me.

Yes, THL have no track record of hitting their previous aim high targets, so hard to believe this time it is different.

Gerald · Aug 04, 2025, 07:37 PM

Impressive the price barely moved. Maybe there was almost no arbs, or someone thinks BGH will back back for round 2 with an improved bid.

Basil · Aug 05, 2025, 10:32 AM

Quote from: Mos on Aug 04, 2025, 07:07 PMYes, THL have no track record of hitting their previous aim high targets, so hard to believe this time it is different.

What do you think will happen next ? Hostile takeover at $2.50 maybe ?

Mos · Aug 05, 2025, 05:44 PM

Hard to know. I would not be surprised by no further bids given the Board response. Risk that the Board continues to have a rose tinted view on likely future performance - hard to fathom where this optimism comes from given actual performance since the merger. Can't see the USA operation turning around anytime soon and suspect camper van sales will continue to be soft in multiple markets. What are your thoughts?