THL - Tourism Holdings

[winner (n)]

Oh dear ...F24 npat about $50m ....eps 23 cents less than I showed on that chart

Never mind goingbto double npat over next 2 years

Share price should double eh

Today it's  BUY

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/430552/417869.pdf

[Sideshow Bob]

Smashed'em bro!!

$2.20 first trade, down to $2.00 now.

Ouchie!!

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear ...F24 npat about $50m ....eps 23 cents less than I showed on that chart

Never mind goingbto double npat over next 2 years

Share price should double eh

Today it's  BUY

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/430552/417869.pdf

Well, yes - 2024 and 2025 are a shocker - and sticking to the 2026 NPAT goal with the disclaimer of really optimistic assumptions and no write offs (which they say are likely) - hmm.

But then - if we assume they now achieve their reduced 2024 and 2025 targets and make in 2026 only 77m NPAT (vs. the 100m they "target"), they still look cheap at an SP of $2.

How many more downgrades do we expect - balance?

[Basil]

Today we'll hear if things aren't really too bad or if things are really bad

Updated an old chart to show the ups and downs of thl over the last 17 years. Took a guess at F25 eps at 27 cents

Be interesting to see where profits and share price go from here

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Thanks for that.  I really appreciate your contributions on here.  I got to thinking this morning.  Bit surprised the average PE is 16 ?  Where's the growth over the years, share price before today's announcement was the same as 2007, 17 years ago.  WTF ?

Maybe this is just a pure cyclical tourism company and deserves a PE more appropriate to a pure cyclical, say 8-9 ?

What does today's announcement tell you about how weak 2H is and the prospects for FY25?

I really don't think most consumers are in a position to outlay serious money on a used campervan now...maybe some are, the cashed-up baby boomers but I don't see an uptick in people's inclination towards major capex items until at earliest, FY26.

Balance was right on the other channel this morning to say he's looking for an under $2 share price as a possible entry point but how much lower is appropriate given current headwinds?

Sorry mate, I have a lot more questions than answers with this one.  Disc: No position and haven't held for many years.

[Bev]

Global Warming.

If the recent weather events become the new "normal" is NZ going to be as attractive, in the future, as a year-round tourist destination.  Flooding, roads and bridges destroyed. 

personally, I would factor this into the share price valuation.

[BlackPeter]

Global Warming.

If the recent weather events become the new "normal" is NZ going to be as attractive, in the future, as a year-round tourist destination.  Flooding, roads and bridges destroyed. 

personally, I would factor this into the share price valuation.

True, but all these things are true for any tourist destination.

Have a look at South East Asia, currently suffering under a huge heat wave (but google as well your favourite SE destination together with "rubbish"), have a look at South America and google "Brazil flooding", and even in Europe are the adverse weather events on the rise.

So, yes - climate change will clearly impact on tourism, and might (will?) reduce it worldwide, but I suspect that NZ (and Australia) might be some of the lesser impacted on countries.

Mass tourism is more likely to be badly impacted (more and more countries fight back against mass tourism anyway), but the high value tourism is in my view likely to be more resistant. Not so sure about the UK and the US though, and THL is renting out campervans over there as well.

[Waltzing]

Its called a cliff...

[Left Field]

Results out.... $51.8 m NPAT and scrapping their $100 NPAT goal by FY26 as 'unrealistic.'

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/436867

Summary:
 •Underlying net profit after tax of $51.8M, within guidance range
 •Statutory net profit after tax of $39.4M due to $12.4M impairment of goodwill attributable to UK/Ireland divisions
 •Record EBIT results from New Zealand Rentals & Sales, Action Manufacturing and New Zealand Tourism divisions
 •Final FY24 dividend of 5 cents per share, 100% imputed and 0% franked, providing a full year FY24 dividend of 9.5 cents per share
 •Continued growth in rental fleet to 7,921 vehicles, up 10%
 •Group Return on Funds Employed of 10.0%
 •Despite operating conditions for the coming period being uncertain, we expect an increase in underlying NPAT in FY25 compared to FY24
 •Prevailing economic conditions make it unrealistic to achieve $100M net profit after tax goal by FY26, however we remain steadfast in our belief that we have the necessary components and will advance towards our goal as tourism rebounds and general economic conditions improve

[BlackPeter]

Results out.... $51.8 m NPAT and scrapping their $100 NPAT goal by FY26 as 'unrealistic.'

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/436867

Summary:
 •Underlying net profit after tax of $51.8M, within guidance range
 •Statutory net profit after tax of $39.4M due to $12.4M impairment of goodwill attributable to UK/Ireland divisions
 •Record EBIT results from New Zealand Rentals & Sales, Action Manufacturing and New Zealand Tourism divisions
 •Final FY24 dividend of 5 cents per share, 100% imputed and 0% franked, providing a full year FY24 dividend of 9.5 cents per share
 •Continued growth in rental fleet to 7,921 vehicles, up 10%
 •Group Return on Funds Employed of 10.0%
 •Despite operating conditions for the coming period being uncertain, we expect an increase in underlying NPAT in FY25 compared to FY24
 •Prevailing economic conditions make it unrealistic to achieve $100M net profit after tax goal by FY26, however we remain steadfast in our belief that we have the necessary components and will advance towards our goal as tourism rebounds and general economic conditions improve

Another amazing example how to run down a great NZ company - go overseas into unknown terrain and get yourself a bloody nose!

Lousy returns in North America and UK/Ireland pulling down the whole company.

Why do Kiwi entrepreneurs who do well always need to go overseas to crush their earnings?

Not that we would have needed another example for this fallacy, but hey - here we go.

[winner (n)]

Another amazing example how to run down a great NZ company - go overseas into unknown terrain and get yourself a bloody nose!

Lousy returns in North America and UK/Ireland pulling down the whole company.

Why do Kiwi entrepreneurs who do well always need to go overseas to crush their earnings?

Not that we would have needed another example for this fallacy, but hey - here we go.

He probably never thought punters would go cruising instead of hiring campervans

Better acquire a cruise company and diversify

[BlackPeter]

"Everybody must go" = seriously, what can go wrong if our frugal government invests $500k into this amazing catchphrase?

But no doubt - Ossies will understand the spirit and come in droves. Hope all the THL campers are oiled and well maintained, just waiting for them to hit our shores.

Just looking at the chart ...

You cannot view this attachment.

Well, yes its a cyclical stock, SP currently in the lower quadrants and Bolling bands start to narrow down - so, what could possibly go wrong?

Ah yes, and if they do go wrong (like in UK and US) - maybe they could sell the surplus campervans into the areas bombed out by Russia and Israel?

[Left Field]

Results not looking auspicious

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/447298

-Underlying net profit after tax of $26.5M, down 33%.(1)
 -Statutory net profit after tax of $25.3M, down 36%.
 -Group Return on Funds Employed (trailing 12 months) of 8.1%.
 -Underlying EBITDA of $113.3M, down 5%.(1)
 -Continued recovery in international tourism underpins rental fleet growth of 11% and rental revenue growth of 8%.
 -Ongoing vehicle sales challenges result in 4% decrease in sale of goods revenue and lower margins for ex-rental and retail RV sales.
 -Interim FY25 dividend of 2.5 cents per share, 100% imputed and 0% franked.

[Basil]

-Ongoing vehicle sales challenges result in 4% decrease in sale of goods revenue and lower margins for ex-rental and retail RV sales.

Had a good healthy debate about this one with Rawz at the recent stock talk get-together in December.  My main argument was that the market for high value discretionary spend items like campervans and boats is very, very soft and likely to remain that way for the foreseeable future.  The other insight an accountant friend of mine who managed one of the largest privately owned rental car firms for many years was this.  It's not what you buy rental assets for that matters when it comes to making money, it's what you can sell them for that really counts.  Glad I stayed away from this one.

[Rawz]

Had a good healthy debate about this one with Rawz at the recent stock talk get-together in December.  My main argument was that the market for high value discretionary spend items like campervans and boats is very, very soft and likely to remain that way for the foreseeable future.  The other insight an accountant friend of mine who managed one of the largest privately owned rental car firms for many years was this.  It's not what you buy rental assets for that matters when it comes to making money, it's what you can sell them for that really counts.  Glad I stayed away from this one.

Yes mate not looking good. No surprises about the historic numbers. What I was interested in was the outlook statement and its clear as day that its still very tough out there in all markets with margins on the re-sales under pressure.

I did disclose on the other place that I sold THL and moved the funds to SEK. Main reason was I thought SEK was in a more positive news cycle. THL time will come and I think everyone should have it on the watchlist as there will be a bag or two in it when the secondary RV market returns and this cyclical makes its run back up.

THL did note a few competitor and manufacture liquidations/consolidations in the report. Everyone knows those that survive the bottom of the cycle will thrive on the way back up.

The company has $864m in PP&E which is mainly the rental fleet. Then $237m inventories which is mainly the ex rentals held for sale. Gives solid asset backing of $1.1b vs net debt of $478m. Difference being $622m vs market cap of $409m

[BlackPeter]

Well, looks like I was right about the outbreak out of the Bollinger channel (#55) - just got the direction wrong. Hey - these things happen, and statistically it is 40% down and 60% up.

Still - there are opportunities ahead - interesting to see the following comment in the announcement:

-opportunities in North America for non-tourism bookings related to the LA fires and ongoing discussions concerning larger wholesale vehicle sales opportunities;

I suppose sales and rental opportunities courtesy to global warming will be more and more. Maybe the market turns out to be not that soft, as some of the posters here expect?

But yes, who would hope for further catastrophes anyway? The do say, that hope is not an investment strategy, don't they?