THL - Tourism Holdings

[Waltzing]

Warning: Post not directly related to stock:

Tourism and small floating Towns....

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68118822

[winner (n)]

Good to see management's comment that this bolt on acquisition is expected to deliver 15% ROFE in year one. THL seem to demonstrate real focus on commercial disciplines that will create value as they continue to grow the business globally. 

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425114

Good to see ...but cynically investor relations practice guidelines say always include phrases like 'eps accretive' or similar like in thl's case 'deliver x% ROFE' when announcing acquisitions

Give punters the warm fuzzies eh

Nonetheless a good acquisition ....cements there place in South Australia

[Basil]

Was very busy at Taupo earlier this week. Never seen so many people at Huka falls.  Plenty of campervans there.  Sorry, no idea if THL is a good buy or not.

[Waltzing]

Are the camper vans going to be lining up next year as the tourists discover this paradise...

what about gisborne...  https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinations/nz/gisborne/300446405/the-best-beaches-in-tairwhiti-gisborne

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/new-zealand-heralds-best-beach-competition-ohope-beach-voted-best-family-beach-for-the-third-year/QCSHBSQE25F4HJABYCQVHGTCJA/

[KW]

If anyone wants another way to play the boomer campervan trend, have a look at CHL on the ASX.  

[winner (n)]

Oh dear ...big profit downgrade coming ...not surprising ...one been on cards for a while now

Reasons for trading halt: THL requests this trading halt to allow it to finalise its updated expectations for FY24 earnings and to provide updated guidance to the market, which is likely to be materially lower than its existing guidance.

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear ...big profit downgrade coming ...not surprising ...one been on cards for a while now

Reasons for trading halt: THL requests this trading halt to allow it to finalise its updated expectations for FY24 earnings and to provide updated guidance to the market, which is likely to be materially lower than its existing guidance.

Hmm - given that they would have at current SP $2.85) a forward PE of 7.8 and a forward earnings CAGR of 11.5, (which would make it a Zulu company with a dream PEG of 0.68) ... am I wondering how much of this downgrade is already priced in.

Anyway, their earnings would need to drop a lot to make this share looking unattractive, but sure - who knows the future of tourism in NZ? Our current bunch of governing inepts is probably throwing our tourism sector together with our environment under the bus ... and they will even make sure that the victims pay the bus fare - so, who knows what the future will bring?

[winner (n)]

At Interim they said F24 npat would be about $75m (less than pro-forma underlying npat $81m in F23) and heading to $100m in F26

Wonder what 'materially lower than its existing guidance' means

You'd have to hope that it's no less than $60m ....being an eps of 27 cents. That would be less than 28 cents eps achieved in 2020 ($41m npat on less shares)

If they only make 27 cents this year you'd have to say the Apollo merger still got a long way to go to become truly accretive ......the old saying might be true "where did all the synergies go"

I need to update my thl file going back to 2006 (I think) ....truly a morbid satisfaction with a company with more disappointments than real successes .....performance wise as well as share price wise.

One conclusion I once came to was that thl profits and share price were inversely correlated to tourism activity

Be interesting tomorrow

[Ricky Bobby]

Bloody hell! Why did I jump back in...

Trading halt is never a good sign... been drifting down for a good month now and this explains it.

[BlackPeter]

At Interim they said F24 npat would be about $75m (less than pro-forma underlying npat $81m in F23) and heading to $100m in F26

Wonder what 'materially lower than its existing guidance' means

You'd have to hope that it's no less than $60m ....being an eps of 27 cents. That would be less than 28 cents eps achieved in 2020 ($41m npat on less shares)

If they only make 27 cents this year you'd have to say the Apollo merger still got a long way to go to become truly accretive ......the old saying might be true "where did all the synergies go"

I need to update my thl file going back to 2006 (I think) ....truly a morbid satisfaction with a company with more disappointments than real successes .....performance wise as well as share price wise.

One conclusion I once came to was that thl profits and share price were inversely correlated to tourism activity

Be interesting tomorrow

Just checked - latest analyst consensus NPAT was $55m (35cents EPS), which is below the $60m you talk about.

So, lets hope they downgrade only from their earlier forecast and not from analysts expectations.

Not sure I can gauge their current business activity. Based on guts feeling, we used to have in the good old pre-Covid times more campervans on our roads, and all the vans which are now populating the neighbourhood as emergency housing (or rent out units) have been sold by THL & Co during Covid, so - not a money spinner these days.

[winner (n)]

Just checked - latest analyst consensus NPAT was $55m (35cents EPS), which is below the $60m you talk about.

So, lets hope they downgrade only from their earlier forecast and not from analysts expectations.

Not sure I can gauge their current business activity. Based on guts feeling, we used to have in the good old pre-Covid times more campervans on our roads, and all the vans which are now populating the neighbourhood as emergency housing (or rent out units) have been sold by THL & Co during Covid, so - not a money spinner these days.

My Marketscreener shows F24 profit forecast as $75.28m or 34.53 cents per share

Then has just $100m in 2026 in line with thl target

[Waltzing]

ok winner they arnt goint gangbusters then?

No gangbuster stocks on the NZX then...

Inflation not likely to come down soon as apparently to many US have 30 year debt locked in for housing...

Not enough short term debt to move the inflation needle quickly...

[winner (n)]

Thl CFO resigned last October ....a guy comes back from parental leave and becomes acting CFO until new CFO ex Scott Tech starts July

Maybe Acting CFO Steve thinking it easier to look after kids than sort out whstbprobablyba bit of mess at thl ...but he may beca guy who likes challenges

[BlackPeter]

My Marketscreener shows F24 profit forecast as $75.28m or 34.53 cents per share

Then has just $100m in 2026 in line with thl target

Mea culpa - you are right. Must have missed at some stage to update the number of outstanding THL shares in my spreadsheet. Bl**dy CR's !

[winner (n)]

Today we'll hear if things aren't really too bad or if things are really bad

Updated an old chart to show the ups and downs of thl over the last 17 years. Took a guess at F25 eps at 27 cents

Be interesting to see where profits and share price go from here

You cannot view this attachment.