HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[winner (n)]

Let's be honest.  HLG's N.Z. operations need a disciplined numbers man to turn around their pretty woeful performance.  If James Glasson can make the big bucks in Australia with Glassons, the model here needs change.  I want to see improvement here and a much-improved level of imputation credits going forward.

NZ businesses are mature / unexciting or whatever like description you want to use ...almost beyond redemption

Sales over the years just keep pace with sector sales ......they have about 5% share of a slow growing sector at best....no share gains here....even though they do a lot of good things in an effort to make the offers more exciting.

Saying they need a disciplined numbers man to turn it around is almost tantamount to calling in the receivers ...well not quite but accountants aren't renowned for adding vibrancy to a retail fashion business are they?

As long NZ businesses plod along and don't let profits slide too much theGroup will likely continue to do well.

[Basil]

Pretty sure they have a fairly talented purchasing team making the fashion buying decisions.
In total the N.Z. operations have nearly twice as many stores as Australia and yet its only contributing less than a one third of group profit.    Hmmm

[winner (n)]

For what's it worth Tony Alexander's spending survey reports that a net 25% of respondents say they going to spend less on clothing and footwear

Net 25% = More % minus Less % ......could be something like 63% going to buy Less and 37% goingbto buy more ...but then I think one can answer the same so no doubt some maths behind the net 25%

Doubt whether this indicates much as to HLG prospects ......peacockers are unlikely to participate in such surveys eh.

[Waltzing]

HLG 60 % off sales ... in the central WakaToo today... 

 Bargains galore....

 its now a race to keep those feet coming to the stores...

come back in 2025? any news going to be pretty boring?

[Basil]

For what its worth, today I have lowered my earnings estimate for the second half of FY23.
There is now a substantial body of peer group market evidence that the slowdown in consumer spending is hurting the retail sector and notwithstanding HLG being positioned at the value end of the apparel spectrum its harder to see how they're not materially impacted as well.

I have lowered my expectations for the second half of FY23 estimate from 25-27 cents to 20 cents giving full year earnings of 55 cps.
My confidence in the long-term growth story of Glassons Au is undiminished.
I have no opinion on which direction the share price will go in the short term.

[LoungeLizard]

For what its worth, today I have lowered my earnings estimate for the second half of FY23.
There is now a substantial body of peer group market evidence that the slowdown in consumer spending is hurting the retail sector and notwithstanding HLG being positioned at the value end of the apparel spectrum its harder to see how they're not materially impacted as well.

I have lowered my expectations for the second half of FY23 estimate from 25-27 cents to 20 cents giving full year earnings of 55 cps.
My confidence in the long-term growth story of Glassons Au is undiminished.
I have no opinion on which direction the share price will go in the short term.

Yes, it looks that way doesn't it. HLG are a very well run company but they are not immune to the consumer spending downturn that is hitting everyone else (like KMD). They will probably hold or expand market share in OZ, but margins might be under pressure to do so. However HLG have shown great resilience in the past to get through tough times, and I expect them to do the same again, whilst still paying a good dividend. The SP in the short term is, as you say, anyone's guess, but there's very few sellers at the moment. I'd be happy enough with a 20c dividend to tide me over

[Waltzing]

In the short term hoping for a 5 dollar or 4.50 if you pastel in across the bottom....

 ave from the point in time the AUS earnings kicked in... when was that?

does anyone think that NZ will rebound with a trade surplus not the worst since 1975?

maybe winner will tell us the trade deficit doesnt matter but it does!!!  it means debt is increasing!!!!
 

[Onemootpoint]

The business is still well run (long term positive) but it is caught up in the wider economic issues (as businesses do).

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/clothes-home-goods-slip-down-the-list-as-shoppers-spend-on-essentials-20230711-p5dndu.html

[winner (n)]

Jeez Basil ...that's some earnings downgrade

H2 profits less than last year? But then $33m isn't too bad eh

[Waltzing]

Yes waiting for the final numbers and we can build on the models...

[KW]

Now that China has rejoined the world, the Chinese companies will also be picking up market share again.  They had been largely absent over the past few years due to long shipping times, and unreliable delivery.  So Shein and  Temu will be targeting that low end of the market. 

Anecdotally I went into KMart yesterday, it was the quietest I've ever seen it in there.  Stock was still neatly folded on the shelves.   I didnt even have to queue for a self checkout machine.  Things must be bad.

[Red Baron]

Anecdotally I went into KMart yesterday, it was the quietest I've ever seen it in there.  Stock was still neatly folded on the shelves.   I didnt even have to queue for a self checkout machine.  Things must be bad.

Nein.  'Bad' is vhen the self checkout machines themselves go out on ztrike.

RB

[Waltzing]

Yikes Have Glassons got enough Barbie pink  in stock!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyhrYis509A

Go Tonya ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxheEETnkT0

[Basil]

Imagine the effect on the share price if they could somehow get Margot Robbie to model their clothes and be a brand ambassador.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/margot-robbie-stuns-with-most-dramatic-barbie-look-yet-at-london-premiere/HAA4SNNV4NCYHH4QEC7WOFFC3A/ Don't think that was a cheap outfit on sale at Glassons LOL
She's Australian, Glassons is sort of Australian.  Let's do this, anyone got Margot's phone number LOL

[Waltzing]

Pink is in according  to kiwi/Aussi fashion designer...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mW1dbiD_zDk