HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Fiordland Moose]

Sorry my point was for the young kids living at home (say the 10 to 15 year olds) their parents are likely the ones paying for the clothes, and those parents likely have mortgages. And I'd suspect your right that the oldest brackets in the similarweb demographic data are buying as gifts. None the less the demographic is young and that CBA report I linked to does give a quite a different take on relative strength in spending, particularly given rent, utilities, and food price inflation. Older spenders have probably still have accumulated savings left over from covid lockdowns would be my guess for why for the divergence.

One thing glassons does have going for it are products are dirt cheap. That gives them less margin to play with and customers may be sensitive to all the costs being passed on, but probably a better place to be than a youth fashion retailer of super expensive products (say kinda like Cue - a bit older, but just by way of example).

I just dispute that glassons is immune from a slowdown just because its customers are young.

[Whome]

Sorry my point was for the young kids living at home (say the 10 to 15 year olds) their parents are likely the ones paying for the clothes, and those parents likely have mortgages. And I'd suspect your right that the oldest brackets in the similarweb demographic data are buying as gifts. None the less the demographic is young and that CBA report I linked to does give a quite a different take on relative strength in spending, particularly given rent, utilities, and food price inflation. Older spenders have probably still have accumulated savings left over from covid lockdowns would be my guess for why for the divergence.

One thing glassons does have going for it are products are dirt cheap. That gives them less margin to play with and customers may be sensitive to all the costs being passed on, but probably a better place to be than a youth fashion retailer of super expensive products (say kinda like Cue - a bit older, but just by way of example).

I just dispute that glassons is immune from a slowdown just because its customers are young.

Good comments -and I do appreciate your insight.

[Waltzing]

yup this cycle is a big one but in 3 years time you will look back and realise with money flowed out 6 months ago from the markets but it will one day flow back..

Thats why some sectors of the  market are a trade and some a hold, some accumulate.

Non farm payrolls in the US powered back..

This has been a great time to do R&D...

[KW]

In my view it would be a terrible look for someone who had been promoting a stock and singing the dividend yield & growth potential to their large following only to have later & *inescapably* been found selling down into the pop at the same time.

To be fair, it was the obvious play.  We all saw what happened before and after the power companies got added to a global ESG index.  The illiquidity of the NZX kind of guarantees this outcome.  If I had owned HLG shares I would have sold them after that run up, and then bought them back a few weeks later when they crash back to earth.  A fundamental belief in the value of a company does not exclude executing a well timed short term trading move to take advantage of unusual market conditions. 

Bonus points if you added to an outsized position before the index announcement :-)

[Waltzing]

The dancers and party people dont know there is a recession...

Teaching Turn from AUS...no one stops dancing for recessions... new shoes, new dresses, new jewels.... they just did not get the memo..

The Kangas wont stop kicking up their feet...

[Whome]

Heh Waltz, is that a selfie 

[BlackPeter]

To be fair, it was the obvious play.  We all saw what happened before and after the power companies got added to a global ESG index.  The illiquidity of the NZX kind of guarantees this outcome.  If I had owned HLG shares I would have sold them after that run up, and then bought them back a few weeks later when they crash back to earth.  A fundamental belief in the value of a company does not exclude executing a well timed short term trading move to take advantage of unusual market conditions. 

Bonus points if you added to an outsized position before the index announcement :-)

No question that this trading behaviour would make sense, and nothing wrong with it.

I think the discussion was not about a potential (and clearly sensible) trade pattern ... but questioning whether it would be ethical to ramp up a stock the ramper himself is selling at peak.

But I guess, first - we don't know whether this really happened (it was just an open question / unconfirmed assumption), and secondly if it did, we probably just need to accept that these forums are full of people with hidden agendas. Buying or selling shares (or anything else) based on the recommendation (or hype) created by another anonymous poster (no matter how Hero or Guru (s)he is is always a no-no.

Its a dangerous world out there ...

[LoungeLizard]

As far as I can tell the best quality publicly available information around Glasson's demographics comes from Similarweb.
https://www.similarweb.com/website/glassons.com/#demographics

From that we see:
*30% between 18-24 years old
*33% between 25-24 years old
*15% between 35-44 years old
*11% between 45-54 years old
*7% between 55-64 years old
*4% above 65 years old

I know Glasson's demographic. And the data disproves that "the SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY will still be living at home with their parents. And even if living with their parents, their parents overwhelmingly have mortgages, which is the group you had previously signaled out as the most at risk to rising rates (you can't have your cake & eat it too).

I don't think 2H FY23 will be a disaster and the full year FY23 result will look good positive given 1H performance and the residual but faltering strength in 2H. That said, I reckon the run rate will clearly show a deterioration in the 2H, FY24 will be difficult and it will carry through or worsen inFY25. Clearly you don't think the same so I'd love to know your factual basis for it.

You've seen my graph on apparel volumes relative to trend I'd love your perspective.

Given you've posted now on a different subject tonight and declined to answer my question, and together with history, I think it would be fair to question if you've sold down some of your shares into the index pop despite all your proclamations on what a fantastic long term dividend yield and growth stock it is. If that's not the case you should set the record straight and admit you got the stock index pop wrong (similar to the WHS when you advocated people
"BUY NOW before the closing match"). In my view it would be a terrible look for someone who had been promoting a stock and singing the dividend yield & growth potential to their large following only to have later & *inescapably* been found selling down into the pop at the same time. I recall you saying at the end of 2021 the WHS would be $5 by xmas and $7 by next year, and then a few weeks later you posted you had sold out at $4.11 during the interim period, so I think it's 100% fair and justifiable to ask.

Pretty unfair slurring of others there FM. Beneath you. We're not children - we all make our own decisions to buy and sell. This forum is for others to share their knowledge and predictions but - do I have to say this? - every needs to do their own research as well. Something that a lot of experienced investors have been at pains to point out again and again.
I bought into HLG prior to index inclusion - which I wasn't aware of until Basil/Winner pointed out the likelihood. Retail isn't my thing but the metrics also looked good - particularly in OZ. I bought in, was glad I did, thanked Basil and Winner in the process, and a few days after inclusion came to pass I decided to sell down half, and take the profits. The other half are still in play because I think HLG have proved to be a very resilient company (look at thir performance over Covid!) and the yield is very good.
If others who were enthusiastic about HLG prior to inclusion have done the same I see no problem with that all. Why should that be a problem for you? Selling down during a "pop" but still liking the company enough to come back in later is a smart play - they are not mutually exclusive you know.

While I'm at it - I see the slagging off on the other forum regarding WHS. Again this is perplexing and typical of the feuding that drove me away from that forum (that and being banned...). So let's get this straight. A certain someone - let's call him Beagle - was enthusiastic about WHS and bought in based on their research and, along with others, opined that the share might reach $5 or more soon. Then the annual report came out which showed increased operating costs, narrowing margins and - crucially - cash flow drying up. That certain someone read the report, didn't like the look of it and sold out at a good price. Again - why is that a problem for you? The only constant in investing is change. THat's why I am on NZX at 8.30 sharp each morning to read reports and announcements. If Beagle got his finger on the sell now button whilst others were still having their breakfast then good on him. I see no underhandedness at all. And neither should you.

[lorraina]

The trust I am a trustee of holds HLG .We are long term holders,neither traders nor momentum investors.Divies plus modest growth suits best our objectives.
I thought the trust may sell if the share price hit between $7.30 and $7.50.
That did not happen.
Had also thought of selling HLG and recycling the funds into NZA,whose share price I feel will double in the next year to 18 months, when they reintroduce good divies ,however a $14 mil market cap company may not be quiet suitable for the trust.
In the meantime HLG remains in the trust's portfolio along side some LOV.[free ones]

[Waltzing]

well Whome ... if i was as good as this amazing person id be doing the teaching ... you can teach whats in a book but the good stuff they hand down to each other. Its almost a secret society...

But the point is that people under a certain age are busy living. 

One tall PHD dancer i know did not even know there had been a thing called the GFC as she was teaching at UNI...

 

[Fiordland Moose]

LL I thought it fair to ask if he sold some given the volume of posts made in the long run up including numerous v. high price targets (well above spot and eventual peak - why sell if below target?), how it was such a good hold ('most comfortable 10 year hold'), best yielder on NZX, saying back in May wouldn't sell for below 10 bucks if a takeover offer was made, the huge growth ahead of it, etc. So yeah I was curious if he still held all his shares after making all those statements, and I obviously don't know or have a view on if he did either way. Goes without saying a disclosure is his prerogative alone. but on reflection I could have asked the question without being as snarky as I was so that's my bad (will work on that).

normal broadcast operations can now recommence.

[Crackity]

LL I thought it fair to ask if he sold some given the volume of posts made in the long run up including numerous v. high price targets (well above spot and eventual peak - why sell if below target?), how it was such a good hold ('most comfortable 10 year hold'), best yielder on NZX, saying back in May wouldn't sell for below 10 bucks if a takeover offer was made, the huge growth ahead of it, etc. So yeah I was curious if he still held all his shares after making all those statements, and I obviously don't know or have a view on if he did either way. Goes without saying a disclosure is his prerogative alone. but on reflection I could have asked the question without being as snarky as I was so that's my bad (will work on that).

normal broadcast operations can now recommence.

Classy mea culpa Mr Moose - kudos

[LoungeLizard]

LL I thought it fair to ask if he sold some given the volume of posts made in the long run up including numerous v. high price targets (well above spot and eventual peak - why sell if below target?), how it was such a good hold ('most comfortable 10 year hold'), best yielder on NZX, saying back in May wouldn't sell for below 10 bucks if a takeover offer was made, the huge growth ahead of it, etc. So yeah I was curious if he still held all his shares after making all those statements, and I obviously don't know or have a view on if he did either way. Goes without saying a disclosure is his prerogative alone. but on reflection I could have asked the question without being as snarky as I was so that's my bad (will work on that).

normal broadcast operations can now recommence.

Fair enough FM. And it goes without saying that I appreciate and value your insights. They will, in time, be part of the insights of an AI generated guru, if he/she/they don't already exist

[Basil]

Okay it's time for me to weigh-in on this.
Congrats LoungeLizard, I'm really pleased you and many others have done really well out of this.
Thanks to Whome and KW too for your excellent posts.
The facts are in a flat lifeless market HLG is up 25-30% inclusive of December and April dividends since I backed up the truck into a heavily overweight position in October-November 2022 and for those that chose to sell some on index inclusion and who brought at about $5.10 late last year like I did, they're up 44% inclusive of dividends on what they sold at $6.85.

Aside from monetary gain, I got a lot of pleasure out of this as it genuinely gives me a kick to see others also getting outsized returns in this lifeless market.  I correctly picked HLG index inclusion as the cherry on top of what is undoubtedly a high-quality company and that lead to returns that have vastly outstripped the market.

Its a very, very strange person indeed that wants to try and make something dark and sinister out of this.
Bringing up the WHS yet again for what is this, the seventh or eighth time?, WOW, just WOW. it's hard to have any respect remaining for such a person despite their sometimes quite obvious intelligence displayed, albeit periodically.  That so called apology doesn't cut the mustard, not anywhere close.
Bizarre why someone would carry a grudge when I so clearly called the top for the WHS at the time and thoroughly articulated the reasons why with several very fulsome posts. Anyone who followed me out saved themselves a ~ 60% destruction of their capital.  Gosh, you'd be forgiven for thinking I got the call 60% or even more around the wrong way. Welcome to the real world FM when, especially during Covid, the fair value of a company can change substantially in a very short space of time.

Couple of insightful little things I will say on the subject of unusual human psychological behavior.  My niece is a top psychologist.  Take notes FM.
Vince once told me this.  Not everyone is going to like you on a public forum.  Its crystal clear you don't like me so you go looking for anything to grind that axe of yours's on. BFF's on Turners,, someone hand me a Tui...  Please get over your obsessive stalking of my investment strategies for the sake of all others on this forum.  I get it you don't like my posting style, we all get that.  Please put me on ignore if what or the way I post grinds your gears too much.

Mrs Beagle has her own unique cliche to explain why some people continue to take exception to things you do without any good reason.  If someone really doesn't like you for whatever reason, even the way you stir your coffee cup will annoy them.

It goes without saying I am under no obligation whatsoever to anyone to provide more fulsome details of my strategy.  I've chosen to share more with some of my friends and that's entirely my prerogative as to who I choose to share that information with.

It's extremely disappointing that anyone would try and make returns that have been so good for so many people over recent months with HLG into
something dark and sinister.     That's all I have to say and I won't allow anyone with a sick attitude to drag me down their level with further debate.
Disc: I remain with a sizeable stake in HLG as I believe its a very high-quality company that will perform very well over the long run.
Those who think they can accurately predict the impact on HLG in the short run with the headwinds readily apparent., have far too much hubris for their own good in my opinion.

[KW]

normal broadcast operations can now recommence.

Actually its a fairly good learning opportunity.  If you've been hanging around the market long enough you kind of know when price pops are unsustainable.  They are usually the result of people rushing to buy stock based on a rumour, news article, or other information not related to a change in the company's trading conditions or internal financials.  These moments are available to be exploited, regardless of how one views the future potential of the company.  Index inclusion is one of those things, its a brief liquidity event, and once its over normal transmission will resume. 

In other words, being added to the index did not make HLG worth $6.94 even if you honestly believed that its future growth and financials will one day make it worth that price.  So if you sold part or all of your position, and either bought it back at a cheaper price later, or decided to recycle the gains into another stock that then has greater immediate potential for share price growth, then thats being a successful investor.  Even if HLG had remained at $6.94 a share, that would likely mean that it was fully valued and wouldnt go anywhere much for the rest of the year (or longer) and the risk of it dropping back to $5.83 in a retest of its support level was always on the cards and a high probability.  Telling people that HLG is worth $7 does not change the fact that once it gets there, that then begs the question - is there better opportunities to deploy that capital elsewhere once something is fully valued?  Even on a yield play, the yield at $7 might now be less than something else you could buy for the same money, so even income investors might look to rotate out. 

And you may choose to sell just to adjust your position sizing if you are now holding what you feel to be an uncomfortable proportion of a single stock. Portfolio rebalancing after large price moves is something virtually all professional investors do.  (Athough they usually do it after the wrong type of price moves (ie. proper breakouts) and end up selling too early LOL)

The big lesson to learn though is that you need to set your position well ahead of the index inclusion announcement date (in this case May 3) as by then most of the big moves will have been made 

But I'll summarise with the classic "Buy the Rumour, Sell the News".  Its a classic for a reason.