HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Waltzing]

Hector plains wants photo shoot negatives....

id have to ask to publish the Hong Kong Ballet performance shoot..

and it would be denied for this site... "what site?" she would say... 

[winner (n)]

Things might be slowing down big time in Oz ...even for peacock

From Westpac

The Westpac Card Tracker Index continues to point to a further weakening in consumer demand. The Index declined 5.0pts to 130.6 over the two weeks to May 20, showing a continued downturn from the brief holiday-related bounce in early April. Adjusting for regular seasonal variations, quarterly growth momentum in consumer-related card activity is now firmly in negative territory, having been about flat in the March quarter.  I

[Waltzing]

Ok winner() it back to a trading stock then at 7% DIV and the last rate KICK is here...

market has been dumping stock cause it doesnt know where the rate KICKs are ending.. well they say it Here and NOW...

till it NOT...

[winner (n)]

NZD sinking into the 50's (USD) again

HLG got this covered?

[Basil]

My understanding is they usually forward cover the currency when they place orders with the manufacturers for the stock.  At a rough guess, I presume that means they have recently been placing orders for production of spring and summer stock and forward covering based on about 62 cents US.
If the currency stays down I'd like to think young consumers are getting conditioned to inflation with their price expectations these days so paying a few dollars more for each garment to prance and peacock around in and make a good impression, is neither here nor there.
Sigh...Oh to be young again eh mate and peacock around....

[Onemootpoint]

Even 62c is very low compared to not to long ago. But I think you are right. Price creep because of inflationary, supply chain, interest rates, etc is all around us, and we have to adapt to that. The question is, will the ones that enjoy strutting around in new clothing be enough to result in an even higher share price in the medium term? For the time being it seems HLG has found a temporary spot around the $6.00 mark. Volume is extremely low with not even a handful of  bidders at that level.

[Waltzing]

Dire , Dire....  bleak.... bleak....

[winner (n)]

Onemootpoint said ..... Price creep because of inflationary, supply chain, interest rates, etc

You forgot to add greedy corporations making excessive profits is one of the main causes of this inflation .......and HLG is one of the culprits

[Basil]

Even 62c is very low compared to not to long ago. But I think you are right. Price creep because of inflationary, supply chain, interest rates, etc is all around us, and we have to adapt to that. The question is, will the ones that enjoy strutting around in new clothing be enough to result in an even higher share price in the medium term? For the time being it seems HLG has found a temporary spot around the $6.00 mark. Volume is extremely low with not even a handful of  bidders at that level.

I guess it depends upon your definition of "medium term"  I think as the next 5 years, others will have a different view on their interpretation.  When I look at thew way Glassons Au has grown over the last 5 years which is my standard way to measure growth, I am very optimistic for the future of Glassons Au but I think Hallensteins and Glassons N.Z. are very mature, no growth business's.  Perhaps their lack of growth prospects got the outgoing CEO Stuart Duncan a bit frustrated?

It is pleasing not all of the NZX50 inclusion was given back.  Currently trading a little under 10 times my FY23 estimate of 60-63 cents eps.  I think we need to see more evidence around how resilient the business is in the current half before we get much more price discovery on the market.  This current recession won't last forever but HLG shares seemed priced as though it will...

Come on Winner, that's a bit harsh mate.

[Crackity]

Trading Update - OZ and after NZX market close and also Michael Hill not HLG though could be germane to Glassons Oz as it is their growth engine. Probably should post it to the company it refers to as well but my bbq is on 🤭



Given the prevailing economic conditions and resulting softening of consumer sentiment, trade has been more challenging for the jewellery industry in the second half, particularly in Australia and New Zealand, with New Zealand having also been impacted by significant weather events and a recent resurgence of security incidents and related costs.
Third party transactional data for the total Australian retail jewellery segment has shown a double- digit decline in sales for the first four months of the second half. However, Michael Hill group sales for the second half1 are only down 3.5%, demonstrating that Michael Hill has continued to take market share even in a more challenging environment. Mi

[Onemootpoint]

I guess it depends upon your definition of "medium term"  I think as the next 5 years, others will have a different view on their interpretation.  When I look at thew way Glassons Au has grown over the last 5 years which is my standard way to measure growth, I am very optimistic for the future of Glassons Au but I think Hallensteins and Glassons N.Z. are very mature, no growth business's.  Perhaps their lack of growth prospects got the outgoing CEO Stuart Duncan a bit frustrated?

It is pleasing not all of the NZX50 inclusion was given back.  Currently trading a little under 10 times my FY23 estimate of 60-63 cents eps.  I think we need to see more evidence around how resilient the business is in the current half before we get much more price discovery on the market.  This current recession won't last forever but HLG shares seemed priced as though it will...

Come on Winner, that's a bit harsh mate.

Can't disagree with that.

[Waltzing]

property stocks like GMT bottomed last october ....

and no more kick up the ... from the OCR to come...

boy its a nail bitter...

[Teitei]

Trading Update - OZ and after NZX market close and also Michael Hill not HLG though could be germane to Glassons Oz as it is their growth engine. Probably should post it to the company it refers to as well but my bbq is on 🤭



Given the prevailing economic conditions and resulting softening of consumer sentiment, trade has been more challenging for the jewellery industry in the second half, particularly in Australia and New Zealand, with New Zealand having also been impacted by significant weather events and a recent resurgence of security incidents and related costs.
Third party transactional data for the total Australian retail jewellery segment has shown a double- digit decline in sales for the first four months of the second half. However, Michael Hill group sales for the second half1 are only down 3.5%, demonstrating that Michael Hill has continued to take market share even in a more challenging environment. Mi

Market is certainly pricing in a retail downturn.

Question is 'will it come to pass?'

Warnings from the big retailers :

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/wesfarmers-boss-warns-economic-honeymoon-is-over/news-story/c7aebd5c3f60bf3a9ccedb3e1f5f43bb

The boss of Bunnings and Kmart owner Wesfarmers has warned that "the honeymoon is very much over" after years of ultra-low interest rates and pandemic cash handouts.

[Waltzing]

what happens in 2025 ... if XI has not invaded TW .... will there be a few years before existing the market... taking the profits and going to GOLD...

[Teitei]

what happens in 2025 ... if XI has not invaded TW .... will there be a few years before existing the market... taking the profits and going to GOLD...

China/Xi will not invade Taiwan - does not need to. Just like HK, matter of time before Taiwan returns back to its motherland. It's the West (US especially) which is stirring up tension to sell more arms and weapons. Taiwanese imo knows US will not come to its aid when push comes to shove.

So relax and focus on fundamentals!