HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

Left Field · Jan 31, 2023, 04:54 PM

Business desk warns of head winds for retailers.....

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/retail/are-storm-clouds-on-the-horizon-for-listed-retailers

( but doesn't mention HLG, so all good.)

Basil · Jan 31, 2023, 05:14 PM

Market cap now $334m...chances of NZX50 inclusion keep looking better.
Most young people (HLG demographic) don't have mortgages.
Homeowners are going to do belt tightening on big ticket items, no question about that but young people tired from years of lockdowns and unnecessary Covid oppression are determined to put that misery behind them, get out and enjoy themselves and look good in cool clothes doing it.

I have seen a couple of articles, (sorry should have kept them for reference) suggesting young people's mental health was more severely affected by Covid oppression than other age groups. I've seen studies of PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder) that suggest it takes at least as long as the trauma endured for people to get over it. Maybe young people haven't fully developed the mental resilience others have and really did feel the lockdown oppression more?

My core thesis is HLG demographic have a durable and serious determination to have some serious fun to shake off the trauma of the last 3 years.
We also all know that young people want to look cool to fit in.

I think the very widely foreshadowed slowdown in retail spending has already been fully baked in and then some as well for good measure into HLG.
Just a thought. What if all the naysayers are wrong and young people keep spending on affordable fashion?

Waltzing · Jan 31, 2023, 05:21 PM

every time the market warns abou retailing it used to nose div or (go wavy)...

but that was before they somehow create and grew glassons AUD and that line along the bottom angled up....

notice how it does not take much vol for the price to move and it looks like to wait for feb was not going to work...

oh well ...

Fiordland Moose · Jan 31, 2023, 10:46 PM

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 31, 2023, 03:51 PMBloody seasonally adjusted numbers - always make things look really good or really bad - like clothing etc falling 13% in December is really really bad- disastrous

But compared to December 21 they were UP 8.6% - not disastrous at all ... but some would say the start of a trend.

Now that's a lot better eh

Suppose commentators will say the boom in clothing sales has peaked and we will see low growth or even a decline over the next 12 months

Never mind - we'll know how up to January how Glassons went and then a few months later at ASM time how Feb/March/April are going

The seasonally adjusted decline for December is bogus for the reasons I alluded to in post 304. Over the last 2 maybe 3 years there has been a new trend to start black friday sales earlier and they last longer which has pulled sales forward from December, and that has been compounded by more people taking part in those sales this year with rising inflation. Economist seasonal adjustment models are based off longer term trends and they can't cope with rapidly changing trends in monthly data.

The only relevant datapoint is thus quarterly sales data as it nets all that out nicely.

December quarterly apparel grew robustly. The underlying volume data won't be released by the ABS till 6 Feb but I remain confident that will show growth both reported and seasonally adjusted (quarterly seasonal adjustments are still reasonably accurate as the pull forward nets out during the 3 month period).

All that said I did over the last week or two exit my position from Universal Store which has a similar demographic (if more menswear based) to HLG. A sensational outcome, although I did get a bit of fomo when I saw a KKR buyout fund became a substantial holder today.

Waltzing · Feb 01, 2023, 10:57 AM

FF surely the only figures that can be used to create a trend line is something with over 12 months data sets?

Monthly being to short is what your saying?

Winner has yet to plot the increasing in EPS adjust the increase in Glasson in AUD outlets with the online numbers removed?

i think winner was a corporate stats man working for Gold Mans but got his start in Soloman Brothers selling morgate bonds...

winner (n) · Feb 01, 2023, 11:09 AM

The seasonally adjusted HLG share price just hit $6.00

Waltzing · Feb 01, 2023, 11:27 AM

O Niel would say wait for the break out and that hasnt happened yet,,,, cant find the old book.... its travelled far,

and he woudl say the data need to confirm the break out with Vol to match.

But that was back in the 80's when everything was drawn on chart paper. Or did they have a printing press in the back room.

The NZX doesnt really conform to any US models as there is no VOL to speak of...

Waltzing · Feb 01, 2023, 01:44 PM

A day trader would say that was a sell yesterday...

KW · Feb 02, 2023, 03:29 PM

Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 01, 2023, 11:27 AMO Niel would say wait for the break out and that hasnt happened yet,,,, cant find the old book.... its travelled far,

and he woudl say the data need to confirm the break out with Vol to match.

But that was back in the 80's when everything was drawn on chart paper. Or did they have a printing press in the back room.

The NZX doesnt really conform to any US models as there is no VOL to speak of...

That's okay, you have me

Mark Minervini says that early (Stage One) breakouts are only successful 2% of the time - what you want to see is the trend solidify and then catch the second breakout (Stage Two) when the stock is already in an uptrend. Its too early for HLG, the 50 day MA is still below the 200 day MA, and its still putting in lower highs. It may (operative word MAY) have put in a double bottom with a capitulation shake out on 30 Sept. FY24 forecasts might be the catalyst needed, in which case PEAD (post earnings announcement drift) should kick in giving it a bit of momentum, but the corollary of that is if forecasts are lowered and the stock goes on to new lower lows. Keep in mind that analysts will be adjusting for inflation, and looking for real growth not just more $$$ sales.

Personally, I am not buying breakouts from below the 200 day MA, or where the 50 day MA is still below the 200 day MA. They usually turn out to be Fakeouts. (So MM ^ is correct)

Waltzing · Feb 02, 2023, 04:08 PM

Book will turn up under a pile of ther in due course we hope...

is the stage one and two a bit like the theory of picking a wave in a set to ride.. sometimes the 2 or 3rd can be the bigger wave...

BOP has some big surf but for long board next week looks better..

winner (n) · Feb 02, 2023, 04:35 PM

Might get the graph paper out later and do a point and figure chart

Usually very reliable at identifying trends ...takes time out of the equation

Now where are the coloured crayons

Waltzing · Feb 02, 2023, 06:14 PM

Pastel charting... a lost art form....

cant wait to see Winners() color choices...

winner (n) · Feb 03, 2023, 08:24 AM

Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 02, 2023, 06:14 PMPastel charting... a lost art form....

cant wait to see Winners() color choices...

Still working on it waltz ....

........but I'm surprised that it seems the HLG share price is still in a down trend

Teitei · Feb 03, 2023, 09:55 AM

Charting an illiquid stock like HLG?

Might as well use tea leaves?

Basil · Feb 03, 2023, 10:24 AM

Looking forward to first half profit guidance on or about 17 February.
I think HLG is capable of sustaining a 10% gross yield and that's what's important to me.
When those huge divvies come in, they are what I call "problem solvers".
Possibly worth noting the shares presently trade cum another big 20+ cents dividend in a couple of months and the next one should hopefully include some imputation credits. I am estimating the next one in April with be 24 cents with the potential for it to be significantly higher.