HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[SuperMario]

Share price seems to be deflating. Could reach the single digit $5s if someone needs/wants to sell a chunk quickly.

The reverse jinx, classic.

[Waltzing]

if the share price plummets faster than a feeding gannet it will long term (2  years) probably be down not long...CPI not increasing at a steady pace as of todays CPI in the US..

[Basil]

Someone's been listening to you Basil - up 24c on lowish volumes. Bodes well for a real kick when results come out?

[Basil]

Media report

There is speculation that Hallenstein Glasson, and even Briscoe, may enter the NZX top 50 following the latest review over the next 15 trading days and index rebalancing.

Can you please post a link mate.
Thanks.

[winner (n)]

Can you please post a link mate.
Thanks.

Got chided a while ago for posting links to articles behind paywall so didn't bother

If I cheat and just paste in the relevant bit it saves you reading a lot of useless stuff to get to the good bits

Anyway here is the link
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-nz-stocks-rise-on-improved-business-confidence/3NXQ5T7PQBH4PNI66AFCV2Q5LU/

[Basil]

Got chided a while ago for posting links to articles behind paywall so didn't bother

If I cheat and just paste in the relevant bit it saves you reading a lot of useless stuff to get to the good bits

Anyway here is the link
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-nz-stocks-rise-on-improved-business-confidence/3NXQ5T7PQBH4PNI66AFCV2Q5LU/

Thanks for posting link, just wanted the context. Interesting!
Very limited amount I can do from my phone with no power but from a quick look it seems eroads market cap is now only $100m v HLG over $300m.
Seems to me removal of Eroad from NZX50 is highly likely, not sure about RBD or who might replace one or both but where there is smoke there is usually fire so HLG could get a major boost from 17 February record half year profit guidance and NZX50 inclusion!
Very pleased to be holding heaps   

[Basil]

Power finally back on and did a bit of digging around for more context.
Extract from that N.Z. Herald article

Two stocks in danger of dropping out of the top 50 had strong days – Eroad rose 17c or 19.1 per cent to $1.06, and Restaurant Brands increased 20c or 3.25 per cent to $6.35 after reaching a low of $5.50 earlier this month

Apparently, Rod Duke owns 77% so free float market cap, 23%, is $241m.
80% free float HLG (ex Tim Glassons stake) is $259.6m

In terms of possible RBD exit from the NZX50 a press article reports Finaccess capital own 75% so apparent free float market cap is now just $198m.  From the annual report HSBC nominees owns over 77%, (obviously includes the aforementioned 75% stake) and top 20 shareholders own over 93% so free float market cap could be less.

Anyway....regarding NZX50 possible inclusion - I bought HLG on its own merits and am expecting a real cracker profit guidance on or about 17 February.  HLG is knocking on the door of NZX50 inclusion and I feel with the way the company is performing it's only a matter of time, whether it's in February / March, (index rebalance used to be third Friday of third week of third month each quarter but it seems to be happening earlier now), or May /June 2023 quarter rebalance or sometime later this year or next, I feel it's something that's likely to happen sooner or later.

[winner (n)]

There were reports of ERoad exit from nzx50 in novemeber ...I presumed they had already gone and that's why share price dropped from 140 odd to sub 100.

Might be completely wrong though

[Basil]

Thanks mate. For what it's worth I googled EROAD exits NZX50 and it gave no results other than press articles on when they were added to the NZX50.

[Waltzing]

Ok... if you guys say so... maybe we havnt got enought of these....

just saying ...

looked at ages ago.. cant remember the numbers

2012 verson 

https://companyresearch.nzx.com/deep_ar/files/NZX_Equity_Indices_Methodology_June_2012.pdf

[winner (n)]

ERD got kicked off NZX50 and a MidCap Index just before Christmas

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/403510/384949.pdf

[Waltzing]

Anything other nags in the running? or is it just these 2 moving up to G1.

does the 2012 still apply?

[winner (n)]

Getting back into NZX50 will give share price a decent boost

Probably enough to get over 7 bucks

And don't overlook that current price is cum 25 cent plus divie

[Teitei]

HLG is too illiquid to get back into NZX50 imo.

Getting back into NZX50 will give share price a decent boost

Probably enough to get over 7 bucks

And don't overlook that current price is cum 25 cent plus divie

Too illiquid to get back into the index imo.

But yes, HLG will go to $7 if gets included into the index. Just imagine the institutions trying to buy a few million shares!

[Basil]

Deserves to be at $7+ on its own merits in my opinion and yes I have seen 20%+ movements in share prices on NZX50 inclusion before.  Time will tell if its included in the next NZX50 rebalance or one a little further down the track but as mentioned earlier, I think inclusion is only a matter of time.
No doubt inclusion will be like the icing on the cake in due course, but I bought this for the quality of the cake.    Some cake's don't need icing to be truly delectable.