HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

Dolcile · Mar 29, 2026, 01:53 PM

Great posts

Just one small thing to add, I see there are $4.1m of commitments disclosed in note 6 compared to zero this time last year.

I looks like expansion continues :-)

winner (n) · Mar 29, 2026, 03:29 PM

Have I got this right ..... based on last 2 divies (Final FY25 and one just announced) the gross dividend is 69.9 cents giving a gross yield of 7.1% at Fridays share price of $9.85

Suppose better than the 3.8% for 1 Year or 4.8% for 5 years that Rabobank would give me.....but HLG share price going a lot higher so no worries

Somehow I thought HLG yield was higher

Basil · Mar 29, 2026, 04:36 PM

Your math's is correct Winner.
Very low imputation credits for the last dividend and this one is a function of poor N.Z. profits last year and the timing of tax payments regarding this year's much improved profit.

I expect the imputation level will be much improved going forward but that's dependent on N.Z. operations maintaining a healthy level of profitability.

By way of comparison TRA's forecast gross yield this year is 5.3% but just like HLG it's important to consider not just the current yield but the way it's grown over the years and the excellent prospects for sustained growth going forward.

Dolcile · Mar 29, 2026, 05:19 PM

There seems to be room to improve the payout ratio even allowing for growth. That cash has to go somewhere...

Dolcile · Mar 30, 2026, 06:45 AM

Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 29, 2026, 03:29 PMHave I got this right ..... based on last 2 divies (Final FY25 and one just announced) the gross dividend is 69.9 cents giving a gross yield of 7.1% at Fridays share price of $9.85

Suppose better than the 3.8% for 1 Year or 4.8% for 5 years that Rabobank would give me.....but HLG share price going a lot higher so no worries

Somehow I thought HLG yield was higher

Given the surging profitability it is more reasonable to estimate the future final dividend rather than use fy25 final.

lorraina · Mar 30, 2026, 07:33 AM

Forbar today.
EPS* (NZc)   66.2   85.5   95.1   102.7
DPS (NZc)   55.0   68.5   76.0   82.0
Imputation (%)   57   47   43   40
*Based on normalised profits
link
Valuation (x)   25A   26E   27E   28E
PE   14.9   11.5   10.4   9.6
EV/EBIT   9.6   7.4   6.7   6.3
EV/EBITDA   5.7   4.8   4.3   4.1
Price / NTA   5.3   4.6   4.2   3.8
Cash div yld (%)   5.6   7.0   7.7   8.3
Gross div yld (%)   6.8   8.2   9.0   9.6

We continue to view the risk–reward as attractive: (1) we forecast three-year EPS growth CAGR of +16% while trading on an undemanding c.11x one-year forward PE; and (2) we forecast a partially imputed 7.0% FY26 cash dividend. OUTPERFORM.
Target price: Increased +2% to NZ$12.80.

winner (n) · Mar 30, 2026, 09:35 AM

Basil - your deep value GARP screening methodology seems to disappoint you when it comes to high yield stocks, esp those that have a high payout ratio

Companies that have high payout ratios and above average dividend yields tend to have lower than expected/warranted PE ratios - mainly because they are seen as a yield stock rather than a growth stock.

HLG falls into this category. High payout ratio and not much in way of retained earnings.... and then we get back to that argument that Price Book might be a more relevant valuation method

Over time HLG has traded at at PB ratio between 3 to 5 times Book Value - currently just over 5 times

Interesting that BV (Shareholder Equity) has grown at 5% pa over the last 5 years..... some would say that 5 times BV is a reasonable price to pay today ...irrespective of future growth prospects

Basil · Mar 30, 2026, 09:45 AM

Very happy with my methodology Winner which has worked extremely well over the long run and filters out a lot of rubbish as well as highlighting many over priced market darlings.

I'm always thinking ahead. Caveat is of course the current geopolitical situation but a next year (FY27) PE ot 10.4 and gross yield of 9% are compelling metrics for a company with a proven 10 year CAGR in EPS of 14% and an outlook of more of the same.

winner (n) · Mar 30, 2026, 09:52 AM

Quote from: Basil on Mar 30, 2026, 09:45 AMVery happy with my methodology Winner which has worked extremely well over the long run and filters out a lot of rubbish as well as highlighting many over priced market darlings.

I'm always thinking ahead. Caveat is of course the current geopolitical situation but a next year (FY27) PE ot 10.4 and gross yield of 9% are compelling metrics for a company with a proven 10 year CAGR in EPS of 14% and an outlook of more of the same.

Fair enough as it screens out the rubbish

Just seems that it often frustrates you when stocks like HLG and TRA don't trade at where the formula says they could be at

Basil · Mar 30, 2026, 10:15 AM

By frustrating do you mean backing up the truck on TRA at $3.50 less than 3 years ago when nobody wanted it and now it's $8.50 ? Happy to "tolerate" that sort of frustration anytime lol

HLG has nearly quadrupled in price since I first bought in but the opportunity is still very clear in my opinion.

That said, The orange baffoon in the whitehouse is frustrating, that's for sure.

Fiordland Moose · Mar 31, 2026, 04:05 PM

From the AFR: Half a million young workers to get up to 42pc pay increase

https://archive.ph/20260331002612/https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/landmark-ruling-abolishes-junior-pay-rates-20260331-p5zk6q

Big positive for the customer base (particularly as petrol rises), though a CODB headwind for the business.

Copy and paste whole hyperlink above as the click will not work for some reason.

Basil · Apr 01, 2026, 07:05 PM

Most interesting thing in my opinion from Forsyth Barr's latest note is that HLG currently trades on a two year forward PE of 10, well below its 20 year median of 11.7, (remembering that median encapsulates 10 years of data (2006-2016) from when HLG was ostensibly a no growth N.Z. retailer).
Not only is its cheap compared to its 20 year average metrics, its outstandingly so relative to its most recent 10 year EPS CAGR of 14%, (assumes they make 85 cps this year).

My conclusion. In the current price none of the transformative change brought on by the exceptional growth with Glassons Au in the last 9 years is reflected in the current metrics. i.e it almost beggars belief the market is still treating HLG as a no growth N.Z. retailer. I think if things settle down in the Middle East maybe there's a real opportunity here for those not already well positioned ? FB forecasting 60% of group sales will be Glassons Au by FY28. Hallensteins Au sales are additional to that. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/consensus/

Waltzing · Apr 01, 2026, 10:39 PM

And the kanga's have just halved there petrol levies!!! They understand that shopping matters? wonder when wellington will understand what matter most... The mount is dead and its the biggest tourist stop on that coast...

Is NZ actually still in recession?

Dolcile · Apr 07, 2026, 05:40 PM

Nice close with HLG rightfully priced over $10 per share. Onwards and upwards.

Basil · Apr 08, 2026, 02:28 PM

Lets hope so and hope and pray the 2 week ceasefire is the beginning of a lasting peace. Very small top up of HLG by me today. Trading cum a 29 cent divvy that due to be paid in "5 minutes" time, $10.15 is really a little less than $10 on a forward earnings ex divvy basis.