HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[LoungeLizard]

I'd agree with Basil that a share split would be the best thing for HLG and its investors. The low liquidity can really distort the SP - sometimes for good, like right now, but if there's any bad news at all - which inevitably there will be - the SP can go off a cliff.Thats one of the risks with this stock that is not being considered in my view - if things go bad they will go really bad.

[Ferg]

Agree....as you say the VWAP is key, as is the buy/sell spread.  The overnight spread is 15c so we might easily see a 15c fall on opening tomorrow.

Lol....this aged well......

Note to self: don't comment on daily SP movements......focus on the bigger picture.

As Basil says the future is Glassons in Oz.  But I wonder about future imputation credits if most profits are being made there....although in the scheme of things that is a minor concern.  IMO NZ and Oz need to align their tax rules about cross-crediting franking & imputation credits.  Off topic I know but the sooner NZ Inc is absorbed into Oz the better IMHO.

[LoungeLizard]

Lol....this aged well......

Note to self: don't comment on daily SP movements......focus on the bigger picture.

As Basil says the future is Glassons in Oz.  But I wonder about future imputation credits if most profits are being made there....although in the scheme of things that is a minor concern.  IMO NZ and Oz need to align their tax rules about cross-crediting franking & imputation credits.  Off topic I know but the sooner NZ Inc is absorbed into Oz the better IMHO.

Sort of my point there Ferg - daily SP movements are not usually a concern, but with low liquidity, stocks vulnerable to let's call it "creative trading" , they are a concern. You can't keep your eye off the day to day news /trading  for one second.
Your/my prediction may or may not be right - either way it relies on some actual trading to take place.
 Half the day gone and 1300 shares traded !

[seaweed]

I'd agree with Basil that a share split would be the best thing for HLG and its investors. The low liquidity can really distort the SP - sometimes for good, like right now, but if there's any bad news at all - which inevitably there will be - the SP can go off a cliff.Thats one of the risks with this stock that is not being considered in my view - if things go bad they will go really bad.

I agree with a share split. 5 to 1 split would be nice. Have said this before. It might be easier for a $2 share to go to a $3 share than a $10 share to go to a $15 share. Please correct me if I am wrong. Also the smaller shareies amounts will probably become 5 times bigger making less transactions on your bank statements. Pages of bank statements with 1, 2, 3 etc transactions   Good discussions everyone. Now back to SEK which goes ex div 2 weeks after HLG.   

[Basil]

HLG goes ex its FY25 final divvy of 30.5 cps on Thursday 4th and the annual meeting is next Wednesday 10 December.
If you treat this dividend as part repayment of the purchase price, at $9.65 less 30.5 cps = $9.345 based on Forsyth Barr's forecasts HLG trades on 11.95 times FY26 eps and 10.8 times FY27 forecasted earnings.  If their dividend forecasts are met and there's 50% imputation level attached that's a gross yield of 8.3% and 9.2% respectively.  This for the oldest listed company on the NZX with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 9% per annum, excellent management and no debt !
Cheapest well proven Australasian growth stock on the market ?  Opportunity knocks ?
Disc: Already my #1 listed position otherwise I'd buy more.

[LoungeLizard]

HLG goes ex its FY25 final divvy of 30.5 cps on Thursday 4th and the annual meeting is next Wednesday 10 December.
If you treat this dividend as part repayment of the purchase price, at $9.65 less 30.5 cps = $9.345 based on Forsyth Barr's forecasts HLG trades on 11.95 times FY26 eps and 10.8 times FY27 forecasted earnings.  If their dividend forecasts are met and there's 50% imputation level attached that's a gross yield of 8.3% and 9.2% respectively.  This for the oldest listed company on the NZX with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 9% per annum, excellent management and no debt !
Cheapest well proven Australasian growth stock on the market ?  Opportunity knocks ?
Disc: Already my #1 listed position otherwise I'd buy more.

All true, maybe, but for defensive-minded investors, a fashion retailer demanding $10 per share just doesn't pass the smell test.
 At times like these, with the US and global economies hanging by a thread and NZ in a prolonged recession,  I personally wouldn't feel comfortable being loaded up with HLG shares, juicy dividend notwithstanding. My guess also is that the SP will slip badly ex-dividend as sellers chase a very small pool of buyers. HLG's poor liquidity is a big problem in my view as huge swings can occur on very small volume.
disc. waiting for the other shoe to drop

[lorraina]

 I am waiting for agm comments.
I am expecting a very positive updates on Glassons Australia trading and expansion plans.

[winner (n)]

At results time they said "The first seven weeks of the new financial year have delivered a solid start, with Group sales up +12.9% on the prior corresponding period, driven primarily by the Australian market and the ongoing contribution from stores opened or refurbished in FY2025."

Australia retail seems to be quite robust since so maybe +12.9% has increased to +15% p[us

[LoungeLizard]

I am waiting for agm comments.
I am expecting a very positive updates on Glassons Australia trading and expansion plans.

Expansion during a global recession. What could go wrong?

[Basil]

9% CAGR in EPS despite an endless recession in N Z. since Covid and a long recession in Australia.

Gosh, what if we've already passed through the bottom of the retail cycle  and there's years of double digit sales growth ahead ?

[lorraina]

My first business was a toy shop in Christchurch.
In 1974 or 1975 Canterbury economy was in a recession.
My mother's golf friends said to my mother your son will be finding business very tough this Christmas.
My mother replied,"he is too busy to read the newspaper, so does not realise there is a recession."
I would expect James Glasson currently will be so busy, he will be finding it hard to make time to attend the agm.
Malls love new blood.Glassons are there to provide it...lol 
Well all will be revealed next Wednesday.

[winner (n)]

My first business was a toy shop in Christchurch.
In 1974 or 1975 Canterbury economy was in a recession.
My mother's golf friends said to my mother your son will be finding business very tough this Christmas.
My mother replied,"he is too busy to read the newspaper, so does not realise there is a recession."
I would expect James Glasson currently will be so busy, he will be finding it hard to make time to attend the agm.
Malls love new blood.Glassons are there to provide it...lol 
Well all will be revealed next Wednesday.

I was mentoring a retailer and he asked what happens during a recession.

I replied 'did you struggle during 1999/2000' ....he said no and thats when I told him that was a pretty bad recession time. So no worries I sad

I sometimes worry about Basil reading newspapers and economist reports as much as he does ...only makes him believe that we are going through the deepest recession in decades. sorry Basil

[Basil]

Don't worry about me mate.  I fully cognisant that really good companies do well no matter what the economic conditions.

[lorraina]

I think customers are very savvy.
They avoid shops that are stale or going backwards.
Glassons shops always look bright and exciting.

[Pierre]

My first business was a toy shop in Christchurch.
In 1974 or 1975 Canterbury economy was in a recession.
My mother's golf friends said to my mother your son will be finding business very tough this Christmas.
My mother replied,"he is too busy to read the newspaper, so does not realise there is a recession."
I would expect James Glasson currently will be so busy, he will be finding it hard to make time to attend the agm.
Malls love new blood.Glassons are there to provide it...lol 
Well all will be revealed next Wednesday.

I am going to Christchurch to attend the meeting. I'm keen to meet the board members and join them in enjoying the positive update we are about to receive.
If the SP drops after it goes ex-div, I don't think it will stay down for very long.