HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[winner (n)]

With the greater and increasing portion of their total sales and profit coming from Australia the change in the AU/NZ exchange rate will surely be working in HLG's favour. AUD100 is worth NZ115 today.

A few months ago the xrate was 107 so 7% difference

As you say thats could be a big gain on those Aussie profits

[Basil]

With the greater and increasing portion of their total sales and profit coming from Australia the change in the AU/NZ exchange rate will surely be working in HLG's favour. AUD100 is worth NZ115 today.

Good point.  For me the most interesting insight of recent days was the Barramundi annual meeting wherein the presentation highlighted that the average ASX stock is trading on a PEG (price earnings to growth rate) ratio of 3.3 and Barramundi trumpeting how their average PEG ratio across their portfolio is 2.3, obviously something they are proud of and trying to make they case they are getting good value for their growth stocks.

HLG been growing EPS for the last 5 years at an average CAGR of 9.2% so Barramundi would be happy paying a PE of 2.3 x 9.2 = 21 and make the case they are getting good value for the growth.  The ASX200 average is 3.3 so if HLG which is mainly an Australian company now were priced on that average market metric it would be on a forward PE of 3.3 x 9.2 = 30.

HLG trades on an FY26 PE of 13.1 and only 11.9 times FY27 EPS (average of 3 analysts earnings forecasts).  (Additionally there's a 30.5 cps divvy due next month).  This really shows what a dirt cheap Australasian growth company it is.  Add in the zero debt, strong balance sheet with ~ $1 cash, vastly experienced management and huge runway for growth in Australia and you can see why its my #1 listed investment position.
My contention is simply this. Through HLG you are getting Glassons Au growth at a genuine bargain price.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/

[winner (n)]

Another good piece from Boston Consulting

I'm sure Glassons people in particular are on top of these changes. Just look at the number of Instagram and TikTok followers they have... ...that's why they are growing so strongly.

Reinforces some of the anecdotes that Basil relates about his young family members.

Link below but summary -

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Women's Wear Daily and Boston Consulting Group recently set out to explore what really matters to young consumers, and how leading brands are adapting to win over Fashion's Next Gen.

Members of Gen Z and Gen Alpha—consumers aged 28 and under—are projected to account for 40% of the US fashion market over the next decade, but few apparel brands have cracked the code for how to win their business.
But a
Because Fashion's Next Gen follows different rules than prior generations did, brands need to shift from the traditional funnel to a self-reinforcing flywheel in a highly fragmented, social-media-driven journey from discovery to purchase.

Heritage no longer determines brand value, and brand loyalty is less important than cultural relevance, authenticity, and creator energy: this cohort is more product-driven than brand-driven.

As 40% of younger consumers use AI to shop, brands need to engage a smart AI strategy to win. That includes thinking beyond yesterday's SEO strategies and preparing for agent engine optimization.


https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/how-gen-z-gen-alpha-rewiring-fashion-industry

[winner (n)]

Hope somebody from HLG does a rave about AI and AI Agents and how they are using it to grow sales in this world of changing consumers

Here's another piece on such things

The agentic commerce opportunity: How AI agents are ushering in a new era for consumers and merchants

https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-agentic-commerce-opportunity-how-ai-agents-are-ushering-in-a-new-era-for-consumers-and-merchants?stcr=E98036F638124901BEB53FC47DE604DB&__hScId__=v70000019a64381bf998a935f4bbe5bf30&__hRlId__=5b85b3a7340948120000021ef3a0bcf9&__hDId__=5b85b3a7-3409-4812-848a-7a9f60452ae2&__hSD__=d3d3Lm1ja2luc2V5LmNvbQ==&cid=mgp_opr-eml-nsl-mhl-mgp-glb--&hlkid=351accf07f7d4d8c9657e3b384bd0520&hctky=9198018&hdpid=5b85b3a7-3409-4812-848a-7a9f60452ae2

[LoungeLizard]

An AI agent-driven economy? Somehow, I don't like the sound of that....

[Waltzing]

yes how it makes up sales numbers by selling to jake people it invented to keep the numbers going in the right direction?

Think HLG is doing ok without them...

 

[Pierre]

ATH of $10.20 for HLG today. Nice!

[LoungeLizard]

ATH of $10.20 for HLG today. Nice!

Don't get too excited there, Pierre.

 The weighted average for the day was $9.93, and the SP only shot up in the last minutes of the day, via a few trades of a handful of shares. Maybe it is Sharesies, maybe not. In the last week or so the FMA were prosecuting "an experienced retail investor" for alleged market manipulation of the STU share price. Apparently his modus operandi was "lodging orders that repeatedly impacted the closing prices of STU shares and were therefore likely to have the effect of creating a false or misleading appearance of trading."

I said on the STU thread that this goes on all the time in NZ particularly in low volume stock.
What's the bet that HLG's SP drops 20c or more on opening?

[Pierre]

Don't get too excited there, Pierre.

 The weighted average for the day was $9.93, and the SP only shot up in the last minutes of the day, via a few trades of a handful of shares. Maybe it is Sharesies, maybe not. In the last week or so the FMA were prosecuting "an experienced retail investor" for alleged market manipulation of the STU share price. Apparently his modus operandi was "lodging orders that repeatedly impacted the closing prices of STU shares and were therefore likely to have the effect of creating a false or misleading appearance of trading."

I said on the STU thread that this goes on all the time in NZ particularly in low volume stock.
What's the bet that HLG's SP drops 20c or more on opening?

The SP has fluctuated a bit over recent weeks so anything is possible tomorrow. However, $10.20 is the highest level it has reached so maybe a little excitement is permitted?

[Basil]

Has been above or around $10 for a little while now..There was an overhang of about 30,000 at $9.90 that was taken out today and was onwards and upwards from there. Decent block of over 80,000 crossed a couple of days ago at $10.09. Annual meeting and trading update less than a month away on 10 December. Goes ex a record 30.5 cps final divvy early Dec.

[LoungeLizard]

The SP has fluctuated a bit over recent weeks so anything is possible tomorrow. However, $10.20 is the highest level it has reached so maybe a little excitement is permitted?

Sure, a little excitement goes a long way.
Weekly fluctuations are different to the sort of trading I'm talking about. Trades in very small parcels - one way or the other - usually at the very end of the day - that are completely out of step with the average or trend. There's no logical reason for it that I can think of other than to pump the SP or to force it down. Either way that's market manipulation, small scale or not.
 I wonder what the threshold in trading would be for a brokerage firm/ bank to report such activity to the FMA, as they are obliged to do?

[Ferg]

What's the bet that HLG's SP drops 20c or more on opening?

Agree....as you say the VWAP is key, as is the buy/sell spread.  The overnight spread is 15c so we might easily see a 15c fall on opening tomorrow.

[Basil]

Talk of alleged market manipulation is nonsense in my opinion. After the 30,000 was taken out there seemed to be a steady rise through the rest of the day due to more buyers than sellers, simple as that.

[Pierre]

Lounge Lizard clearly has a negative view of HLG and doesn't appear to perceive or value the long. Australian runway ahead of the company which offers the potential for ongoing significant annual growth.
That's  fine, we're all allowed our own opinions.
HLG's SP has risen by about 30% over the past 6 months from around $7.70 to its current level of around $10+.
To suggest that a movement of 10 or 20 cents on a few shares at the close of trading today might be market manipulation seems a bit OTT to me.
I suspect investor interest is increasing as the ex-dividend date of December 4 and the trading update on December 10 approach. Watch for more movement in the SP over the next 2-3 weeks.

[Pierre]

Don't get too excited there, Pierre.

 The weighted average for the day was $9.93, and the SP only shot up in the last minutes of the day, via a few trades of a handful of shares. Maybe it is Sharesies, maybe not. In the last week or so the FMA were prosecuting "an experienced retail investor" for alleged market manipulation of the STU share price. Apparently his modus operandi was "lodging orders that repeatedly impacted the closing prices of STU shares and were therefore likely to have the effect of creating a false or misleading appearance of trading."

I said on the STU thread that this goes on all the time in NZ particularly in low volume stock.
What's the bet that HLG's SP drops 20c or more on opening?

Glad I didnt take your bet. Opened today at $10.19. May not stay at that level though.