HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Waltzing]

MR AI on the company and the share price target difficulties due to the wild swings in monetary policy and the direct to market monetary injections due to zero interest rates..

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/1846d4bc-73fa-4760-93ac-a4f455750a15

what AI appears to be seeing is that some of these companies were investable back two years ago and some will be investable again possible in 2027..

what is really interesting is that if we had had excess to these tools back in 2022 might would investor have done and i suspect everyone would have made a lot of money and anyone who did is just lucky or a genius and had some luck...IE they made money despite the landscape being a deck of cards stacked against the investor.

[Basil]

I started buying in mid 2016 at $2.70. There was no analyst coverage for many many years, no A.I, just my own analysis and belief this was a really well managed, solid and enduring business trading on compelling metrics. That remains the case today although HLG is arguably even more compelling now. . It used to just be a fabulous dividend story, now it's a strong growth and dividend story still trading on very attractive metrics.

[Ferg]

Nice one Waltzing....but as Benjamin Franklin famously said "don't believe everything you read on the internet".

Gross Profit Margin: 59.3% (up from 59.4%)

MR AI on the company and the share price target difficulties due to the wild swings in monetary policy and the direct to market monetary injections due to zero interest rates..

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/1846d4bc-73fa-4760-93ac-a4f455750a15

what AI appears to be seeing is that some of these companies were investable back two years ago and some will be investable again possible in 2027..

what is really interesting is that if we had had excess to these tools back in 2022 might would investor have done and i suspect everyone would have made a lot of money and anyone who did is just lucky or a genius and had some luck...IE they made money despite the landscape being a deck of cards stacked against the investor.

[Waltzing]

Off Topic.

Most of us are mere mortals some people are born with computers for brains and they are a breed of accountant that when the power goes off they wont need computers to produced financials as they can add subtract divide and multiple with pen and paper....

Remember the days when HLG was just an unloved NZ stock. A history of this company deserves a book if there isnt already one and the last chapters are still being written.

The accuracy of the AI documents is never going to be perfect as fragment's get left in the NN with weightings and as one person said recently on CNBC , (its all just some maths tricks)..

Notice in the documents the similar and repeated descriptions and that is in CONCISE mode.

In future we might try for a consolidated mode as previous reports were only several pages long and now it generates in artifact mode a much larger document.

[Ferg]

That is some really impressive work Waltzing and a comprehensive report.....for a 'concise' report that is already quite long.  I like the fact it also addresses the bear case and risks and doesn't just focus on the positives.  Is that where you wanted to get to with your analyses?

Yeah that ability to look at a page of numbers and know which one is wrong.....that is years of training. Sorry about leading with that reply...... 

The relatively lower Australian operating profit....do you think they are pushing costs across the Tasman to preserve NZ profits and imputation credits?

My investment case sits just above your conservative case.  Do your returns take into account dividend withholding tax?  I expect that as Australian earnings grows, we will likely see a reduced imputation credit % which means a higher dividend withholding tax and less cash in our hands.

Nice work and thanks for sharing!

[Waltzing]

Off Topic.

We asked the AI to research companies performance in light of Policy settings and GDP statistics and also as a back drop investigate the difference in the two QE strategies adapted by reserve banks between 2008 and 2020.

Recently it did an IMPUTATION policy review and got it wrong according to SIR B but that is because it found conflicting  documentation..

It then reworked the document.. Its just a machine.. GIGO...

We can ask it to review and see if it smart enough to do the IMPCR but some humans here will have an idea already on that...

NZ retail has gone no where and the really interesting retail is MHJ... most people hate the company but from a GDP statistics perfective its the perfect storm stock..

Dont just analysis the good performers as KMD and MHJ are far more interesting from a what if perspective and are distressed assets along with SKC... and they are all retail...BRISC being particularly interesting and some here have picked it performance perfectly... IE... going know where and under extreme pressure..TRA is retail again with finance tacked on..

No doubt management in these companies learn from each other as those groups will all know each other and meet for drinks now and again.

Ai is really good at auditing software debug reports.... but as for creative new paradigms.. not so...

[Shareguy]

MR AI on the company and the share price target difficulties due to the wild swings in monetary policy and the direct to market monetary injections due to zero interest rates..

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/1846d4bc-73fa-4760-93ac-a4f455750a15

what AI appears to be seeing is that some of these companies were investable back two years ago and some will be investable again possible in 2027..

what is really interesting is that if we had had excess to these tools back in 2022 might would investor have done and i suspect everyone would have made a lot of money and anyone who did is just lucky or a genius and had some luck...IE they made money despite the landscape being a deck of cards stacked against the investor.

It looks pretty good Waltzing. What do you think Basil.?

[Basil]

It looks pretty good Waltzing. What do you think Basil.?

These A.I. reports are getting better and well worth reading for a general overview. Thanks for sharing Waltzing. Contains some errors that being time poor at the moment doesn't allow me to drill down into but highlights a lot of the factors investors need to consider.  A.I. is no substitute for doing your own research though.

We now have 3 analysts covering HLG.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/
Its well worth noting that average analyst forecasts for the next 3 years align well with the bull case outlined in that A.I. report which suggests a $14-15 price target 3 years hence is reasonable as well as high (8.3% and growing gross yield), along the way.  Average analyst forecasts are as follows (DPS in brackets is grossed up for estimated 50% imputation credits)

        FY26     FY27    FY28
EPS     77       85       93
DPS   66(77) 75(87) 82(95)
Sales   505     536     564

[Basil]

The relatively lower Australian operating profit....do you think they are pushing costs across the Tasman to preserve NZ profits and imputation credits?

They're doing that as much as they can and that came straight from the horses mouth.

[Waltzing]

At some point we will run them through again but not today...Usually take 2 or 3 goes for AI to check its own work..we have urgent work todo as a big piece of software called the Software Machine has arrrives and once that runs AI inside itself we wont need a human to load up and push the enter key...

[Basil]

It was a solid first effort mate and that ARG A.I. report you emailed me the other day was also very good.

[Waltzing]

least that can be done for the life time of service to the business community put in my many accountants who have been required to work in an ever increasing compliance code that culminated in the Labour Governments Spanish inquisition into where the rich were hiding there jewels... imagine what could be coming in the future...

anyway there is a lot people out there moving today on the Main routes to Port of Tauranga today and the roads are barely coping.

We should get AI to look at shipping loadings into the country...
 

[Waltzing]

HLG - AI audit of statistic, step 1.

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/420c2cf4-0b0e-492e-aee7-0fa32981340c

[Waltzing]

It appears that AI can see everything on the internet now and AI is watching... NOTE wellington IT is watching..

Ai has read and noted the comments and reviewed it documents...

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/a2872727-c4c2-4c08-b25a-dad3c3a16669

It has audited its original document.

Well really whats a few percent points here and there when the whole country is always a few percentage point out here and there from time to time.. season to season....

[Red Baron]

It appears that AI can see everything on the internet now and AI is watching... NOTE wellington IT is watching..

Ai has read and noted the comments and reviewed it documents...

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/a2872727-c4c2-4c08-b25a-dad3c3a16669

It has audited its original document.

Zhis eez all very vell Valtzing man.    Yes you have received a near perfect zummary of ze financial advancement of HLG vrom your AI bumker.  Kudos vor zhat, but....You ztill have to read it.    Zo vhy not just read ze annual report, vhich eez where zhis eenvormation may be vound anyway?   

Zhat vay, you ztill get your eenvormation.    But you do not have a 'cropping varmer' een  La Paz Mexico (in ze zame vater catchment of ze zite of ze AI datacentre zhat gave you zhis report), who hates you.

RB