HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

Started by winner (n), Oct 03, 2022, 01:26 PM

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winner (n)

#1457
Apr 28, 2025, 03:52 PM
Warren sold a few more of Kevin's shares the other day

Getting there ...only 315,316 to go

Basil

#1458
Apr 28, 2025, 04:20 PM
60% of volume is a pretty disappointing and aggressive way to effect the sale of those trust shares. I guess the estate executor has a job to do and they're doing it. Decent volume of over 70,000 today so I guess we are getting there.

winner (n)

#1459
Apr 28, 2025, 04:49 PM
Quote from: Basil on Apr 28, 2025, 04:20 PM60% of volume is a pretty disappointing and aggressive way to effect the sale of those trust shares. I guess the estate executor has a job to do and they're doing it. Decent volume of over 70,000 today so I guess we are getting there.

Wonder if they could have come to an 'arrangement' with somebody like James Glasson to take the lot at a reasonable price instead of selling on market but I suppose that's not proper and not allowed

Tim Glasson couldn't take them ....would need to make a takeover offer ..yes?

Basil

#1460
Apr 28, 2025, 05:44 PM
Yes I think so mate. 500,000 is close to 1% shareholding and Tim holds 19 point something percent already.

Waltzing

#1461
Apr 30, 2025, 11:55 AM
breaking down ... must hold here..

Basil

#1462
Apr 30, 2025, 01:06 PM
Glassons Au going from strength to strength.  Plenty of work for management to do with improving Hallenstiens performance.  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450744/attachment/442370/450744-442370.pdf

KW

#1463
Apr 30, 2025, 02:19 PM
Quote from: KW on Apr 23, 2025, 12:09 PMBouncing off support at present and clawing its way back to the 200 day MA.  Will it hold?  Bit of a hard ask in this market, so no prediction here. 


So far, so good.
 
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Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

Waltzing

#1464
Apr 30, 2025, 03:07 PM
some more OCR cuts might help....

china could break the trends everywhere though...they may haved started QE in an attempt to hold off folding ..

BlackPeter

#1465
Apr 30, 2025, 04:51 PM
Quote from: KW on Apr 30, 2025, 02:19 PMSo far, so good.
 
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One could draw a beautiful down-channel, starting in February. And yes, the SP is well within this channel.

Basil

#1466
Apr 30, 2025, 05:33 PM Last Edit: Apr 30, 2025, 05:36 PM by Basil
I suspect the very aggressive selling of Hickman's estate shareholding has had a fair bit to do with the recent share price weakness.   Obviously, overseas drama's flowing through to local market weakness is also a factor.  I see another good volume day of over 90,000 shares so we're certainly getting there in terms of clearing out that overhang.

winner (n)

#1467
May 03, 2025, 10:31 AM
 OZ retail stats have clothing stores for March sales up 7% on last year

Glassons with share gains should have had a great sales month.

Looking good

Basil

#1468
May 03, 2025, 01:36 PM Last Edit: May 03, 2025, 06:02 PM by Basil
That's good.  Interestingly, last year we all thought they got quite a sales boost from Taylor's Swift's concerts in Australia in late February 2024 but that theory doesn't appear to hold water with group sales this half up 5.4%, (7 weeks from 2 February).  I reckon Glassons Au sales up ~ 10-11% so far this half and N.Z. sales are flat. 

By my reckoning HLG is on track for approx 62-63 cps in eps this year.  I worked this out before looking at market screener and I am encouraged to see the two analysts covering this, their average forecast eps this year is 62.3 cps.  https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/ 

Been doing a bit of modelling of first half - second half profit split.  For the last 6 years that has averaged 56.9% 43.1% split, and eps growth from 2019, (unaffected by Covid) to 2024 has been a CAGR of 4.4% per annum.  I think growth has been slowed a bit by Covid and the almost endless recession that followed and they can grow eps a bit faster going forward.  How much faster, maybe CAGR of 6% ? but the actual rate will ebb and flow with economic cycles.  (6% growth is consistent in my valuation methodology as being good value at a forward PE of 14.5 which gives me fair / good value of $9.00 on this year's earnings).

Possibly worth noting that the average analyst forecast is for much stronger growth in FY26 and FY27 with eps growing to 73 (17% growth) and 81 cps (11%).  Average analyst price target is $9.25.  We're in the last quarter of HLG's FY25 year and it's always best to look ahead because that's what the market does, so looking at FY26's numbers, the average analyst has eps of 73 cps and the shares closed at $7.63 so a forward FY26 PE of only 10.5.  Well shy of where I see the fair PE of 14.5.  (Briscoes with its very limited growth prospects trades on a mid 15's PE)  Hmmm

Probably worth remembering how long this company has been trading, managements capabilities, their fortress balance sheet with no debt and ~ $50m cash on hand, (worth ~ 84 cps).  The sustained selling pressure from Hickman's estate share sales seems to have abated, at least temporarily.  Wonder how many there are still to go ?

Basil

#1469
May 06, 2025, 11:36 AM
Quote from: Basil on May 03, 2025, 01:36 PMThe sustained selling pressure from Hickman's estate share sales seems to have abated, at least temporarily.  Wonder how many there are still to go ?
264,000  https://www.investdirect.nz/app/news/urn:dt:7007709
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