HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Basil]

What I don't understand is how anybody could think that they are able to predict a fickle fashion-based market not just for the next season, not just for the next 2 seasons, not just for the next 2 years, but for the next two decades.

Mate with all due respect, Glassons have been around for over 100 years and Hallensteins for more than 150.
Its widely regarded as a superbly managed company.
A picture says a thousand words.  Maybe just have a look at that beautiful image Winner has posted above and soak that up and then ponder that Glassons Australia only has slightly more retail stores than Glassons N.Z. and yet the population in Australia is five times as many people.
That should give you an idea of the size of the a"dressable market"   If its not for you, that's fine mate, I'm not trying to sell it to you.
I'm pretty sure there will be other 13-30 years old's who come along behind my granddaughter who also think Glassons is cool.  They all seem to think that way, I've talked to a LOT of her friends.  The trend if your friend with Glassons Au.

[Waltzing]

well winner that chart is Perfect...

does that mean that the aussi fashion conscious buyer has taken over from the US..

 have we missed a trend here and havnt been reading the mode of the Kanga nation....

if this is in fact the case then KIWIs do have there heads in the bush's and NZ inc needs to join Kangaland ...

and become the nth state of AUS...

that chart is PERFECT...

well having some aussi stocks is good then...

[Waltzing]

if NZ and AUSS miss the TF war... and the US plunges into R country as the FED is now on hold it appear and STG-FLATION is already in place apparently...

NZ and AUSS could come out of this looking better than first though...

All eyes on the next 3 QTR GDP....

retail spending for this QTR ending 31 march is what we want to see...edge of the seat stuff..

dont forget to check out the latest Kanga Budget... and very surprised to see the size of the Navy defence budget...

will they also be the best dressed...

check out the new toys the kanga have at sea on WOW thread...

[BlackPeter]

Mate with all due respect, Glassons have been around for over 100 years and Hallensteins for more than 150.
Its widely regarded as a superbly managed company.
A picture says a thousand words.  Maybe just have a look at that beautiful image Winner has posted above and soak that up and then ponder that Glassons Australia only has slightly more retail stores than Glassons N.Z. and yet the population in Australia is five times as many people.
That should give you an idea of the size of the a"dressable market"   If its not for you, that's fine mate, I'm not trying to sell it to you.
I'm pretty sure there will be other 13-30 years old's who come along behind my granddaughter who also think Glassons is cool.  They all seem to think that way, I've talked to a LOT of her friends.  The trend if your friend with Glassons Au.

Sounds a bit like the Turkey problem.

Turkey gets fed every day by a nice and friedly human looking after his health. Turkey learned based on all data available to him that humans are nice and friendly and their purpose in life is feeding turkeys.

After he learned all this, Thanks Giving arrived and despite all his data he didn't got another feed, but the knife.

Apparantly EJ Smith confirmed in 1907 that despite his long experience he never has been involved in any accident. This was when they made him captian of the Titanic. Well, we know, how this story ended.
 
Look, it is not an uncommon fallacy to assume that things which went on for some time will always keep going that way. It's just - there are plenty of examples that this method (linear extrapolation) has its limits (to put it mildly).

Things tend to grow, they reach a peak and than they fall back (or decay). Humans do that, trees do that, companies do that, and apparantly even the universe might follow such a course.

If we talk companies - think Pumpkin Patch (unstoppable for some time), Kathmandu (yes, once they were a star as well), Polaroid, A2Milk - and thousands others who had amazing growth until ... they reached their limits or something changed.

But no doubt - this time will be different.

[Waltzing]

no doubt the current supply chain may change...

Would be interesting to see how over that 100 yer period there supply chain changed....

But you have to say has that history draw some of the BB (best of the best) or did they get lucky...

well so far its looking good.. and the up till 2020 one could plan a decade ahead...

well i  somethings just dont change....

I doubt anyone holding retail stocks think beyond the next QTR these days..

Its back to the past...

who said time travel doesnt work..

as Crammer said this morning on Jobs data .. its not the end of the world, its just feels like it...

people also always dress well at funerals...

[winner (n)]

Hey waltz...talking of supply chains did you know that 150 years ago Bendix Hallenstein set up his own clothing factory and made stuff for his shops.

No imports from China in those days

Bendix was a German .....like most Germans he knew his stuff

[Waltzing]

well there you have it folks...

one wonders if he brought with him a gramophone and listened to some Strauss in the evenings...

thank you winner... great to know...

[Basil]

BP HLG is the oldest company listed on the NZX and as Winner has stated above, can trace its roots back 150 years.  Food for thought. That's longer than some famous brands like Mercedes-Benz.
I'm not sure how much more proof you are looking for that a company has an enduring business model, but you won't find it on the NZX.  The market penetration of Glassons Au, in terms of its retail footprint compared to Glassons N.Z. (itself a more than 100 year old company) is only one fifth.  I think its clear to any objective observer looking at Winners chart, they have made strong and consistent progress over the last 8 years in building their market acceptance and brand awareness in Australia thanks in no small way to the excellent services of James Glasson, (degree qualified from the London school of fashion).  James of course stands to inherit a significant share of his father Tim Glassons 20% stake so in addition to his fabulous skillset, shareholders can take quite some comfort from the fact that he's seriously motivated to continue the excellent work he's started.

I think Glasson's Au has only recently hit critical mass and we're on for a very exciting future in the decades ahead. 

[Waltzing]

is it an indian summer... temperatures yesterday in the WakaTOO and the BOP have simply been wonderful this last few weeks and surely tourist numbers are they holding up?

retail needs a boost and nothing like perfect late summer to kick the spirits of the country off into a recovery?

lets hope so as the 1st QTR of the new year ends and the clip boards will be out tally up the numbers...

the extra 600 staff at the RNBNZ measuring everything ... they must know the answers?

or is it all in an Excel spreadsheet .....

[Basil]

Went dog walking with my 14 year old granddaughter at lunch time.  Checked in again with her and asked if Glassons is 100% cooler than Cotton on ?  500% cooler Grandad, she said.  I'm not sure how the 500% thing works, (presume that's five times as cool in teenage language) lol

[lorraina]

A very wise young lady.
Perhaps she would like a few HLG shares for her next birthday.?

[winner (n)]

Seems the estate  are selling Hickman's shares ...at least in an orderly fashion

[Basil]

Pretty big sell down in HLG in recent weeks.  In the last few weeks the $N.Z has gained nearly 10% against the US rallying from circa 55 cents to over 60 cents.  That'll help going forward.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/trump-tariffs-new-zealand-dollar-gains-us5c-in-three-weeks-amid-us-turmoil/VOJTDOV4QZB77AS4HYFZLSLMFE/

[BlackPeter]

Pretty big sell down in HLG in recent weeks.  In the last few weeks the $N.Z has gained nearly 10% against the US rallying from circa 55 cents to over 60 cents.  That'll help going forward.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/trump-tariffs-new-zealand-dollar-gains-us5c-in-three-weeks-amid-us-turmoil/VOJTDOV4QZB77AS4HYFZLSLMFE/

Always right to sell above $8.50 ; Enjoying (next to others) the TRA shares and the ARMR ETF's I bought from the proceedings.

[winner (n)]

Always right to sell above $8.50 ; Enjoying (next to others) the TRA shares and the ARMR ETF's I bought from the proceedings.

That recent $8.80 seems a long way off now eh Peter

Maybe Hickman estate still selling his shares

You always said HLG was a cyclical ....sure is