Your Predictions for 2023

[Waltzing]

Interesting that EX Hong Kong ext pats are now oeprating from Dublin...
David Roch ....

says market going no where this year ... down 10 percent by end...

and russia a permanent problem for the west even after a change of personal at the top table...

there is a major war on and it will move the load on the engine of growth even though some say it wont...

another  year of this to go unless the US gets a move on supplies F14 tomcats to Ukraine...

Biggest radar ever on a plane... bonkers speed and ahead of its time.. could still work today... f15 was good but not as good as the tomcat could have become...

alway over spend on R&D...it pays in the end..

 

[Hectorplains]

Yes it should never have been allowed... but same happened to Jef bay in south africa..

the winds from high rise housing apparently change the dynamics on beaches ... well apparently...
 
modelling of the enivironment did not exsist although the book ONE planet was published back... just wait checking tha dat...

unfortunately 1972...

all to late....

but a lot of work went into it..

Were you surfing back then - on the longboards?

[Waltzing]

"longboards?"

endless summer one ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmHQ9v2ijsQ

born just after 1955...i sneaked into the 50's!!!! by 11 months!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lC7cRmZzevI

but recorded my fastest speeds last feb on a local lake....even faster than at 21... know your equipment ... or better yet get it custom built...

know your maths or at least know the law of maths that controls energy when you unlease your energy....

[Basil]

Interesting that EX Hong Kong ext pats are now oeprating from Dublin...
David Roch ....

says market going no where this year ... down 10 percent by end...

and russia a permanent problem for the west even after a change of personal at the top table...

there is a major war on and it will move the load on the engine of growth even though some say it wont...

another  year of this to go unless the US gets a move on supplies F14 tomcats to Ukraine...

Biggest radar ever on a plane... bonkers speed and ahead of its time.. could still work today... f15 was good but not as good as the tomcat could have become...

alway over spend on R&D...it pays in the end..

 

Maverick be pleased you're talking about F14's.
Turn the sound up to 100% and enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZfM2VMs_vI
Not sure there's many still fully operational these days ?
F22's is where its at these days.  The fun really starts at 3 minutes 50 seconds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hACjS-79Wb4
Little known fact as to why F22 airshow displays are quite short.
On full afterburner they consume about 300 US gallons, (1135 liters) a minute, (yes a minute)...this gives them less than 7 minutes endurance at full afterburner.

[Waltzing]

The problem with the F22 is the productio line would cost to much to restart or rather the f35 has apparently taken the production line away for its own use.

Even if the F35 program doesnt go the full cycle the technology from its R&D will be the future on which anything is built including the new engine designs and softwae platforms...

in fact id be surprised if whole new software development platforms arnt being created as we speak for AI based flight simulations....

New Chips will mean the US could leap ahead again just like they did with the F22.

The japanese are now gearing up along with the SK to build next generation fighters and thats why we see the New Axis of EVIL gearing up to fight now rather than later...

even of the fight scenes in Topgun were all wrong  the ideas were right and of course no one puts stuff in the bottom of a volcano right?

and only volcanos are shaped like that apparently...

there wrnt enough consultants on the movie...

reminds one of the last bond movie where clearly someone forgot to remind the directors and script writer of "Master and Commader"

lucky the UKE's appear to understand its not a movie and they are now using HI MARS fingers of steel to effectively wipe out the ugly bears in mass and a new HI mars missle is coming with a head that spreads lots of little finegrs of death....

shocking stuff...

invest in defence...

 

[Basil]

Safest bet of the year.  Ukraine will keep raining down more Himars rockets on the Russians
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/explained-the-us-made-himars-rocket-launchers-that-ukraine-has-used-to-kill-over-100-russian-troops/ar-AA15UrSD

Terminator becomes real soon ?  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-drone-advances-could-bring-dawn-of-killer-robots/KPARIPD7C5EKNH75ETL5BO6QAM/

[Hectorplains]

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/inventions/weird-2023-predictions-made-100-years-ago-and-how-many-came-true/news-story/c5d280ff44316502a74369e6777b4b59

The four day working week, kidney warmers and other weirdness but probably about as accurate as predictions made today for the year.

[Left Field]

Here's my predictions for 2023

• Ukraine will win back most of the territory lost to Russia since 2014.
• Putin will fall (likely from a multi-story building.)
• In terms of the NZX, recession fears fade, while property remains flat.
• China's economy continues to struggle to return to previous 'highs'.
• Western democracies regain strength in the new 'cold war'.

[Waltzing]

deleted ...

[Fiordland Moose]

My (current) gut feel:

I reckon things may stay a stronger for longer, but the long mooted recession eventually occurs in middle or later half of 2023.  Aggregate demand will continue to outstrip supply in the early months of 2023, driven by a cannibalisation of household savings and robust nominal wage growth.  I note the household surveys, but don't put too much stock into them (everyone is surly).

The RBNZ will continue to hike until at least a 5.5% terminal rate is reached, maybe eventually higher, but may not be a linear journey.

I think in NZ (and more likely offshore) as a few volatile/commodity related components of CPI become naturally disinflationary - and may temporarily drive down overall CPI - the doves will gain a disproportionate voice in politics and monetary policy. I see a real risk too early pauses and/or reductions in cash rate occurring before rising again as continued wage growth starts to rebound and lift CPI after temporary falls.

That could give way to a few false rallies in tech, discretionary and overall equity performances in 2023 (even if they fall harder in 2024).   The tech bulls still want to run at the first sign of lower interest rates and they want to run hard, and it'll take time for the markets to beat that out of them. I believe what we are in for will resemble the post GFC period of 2011-2012, where we had shallow w shaped recessions, coupled with very weak equity market performances, and lots of discretionary business challenges. I don't think the end is near, but I think sentiment has a very long way to fall and it will take time.

I think tourism will run hard for the first 6-9 months in Australasia. Beyond that who knows but probably tappers off and eventually falls.

There will be some pivotal decision gateways on Onslow and the attendant impact on our generator companies

I think the Australian economy will continue to run relatively red hot - too hot - for the first 6-9 months of 2023, because their reserve bank governor is a bigger wet blanket than ours. That may (unduly) underpin trans-tasman related equities throughout 2023.  I think the NZD/AUD will remain strong before eventually weakening as AU has to lift its interest rate track at the same time NZ hits its terminal rate and the market prices in future cuts due to a weakening economy.

But none the less I see heaps of pressure on wage growth and underlying input growth, coupled with softening demand, that will shrink margins and company earnings even as revenue grows on the back of inflation, for the wide majority of NZX listed companies.  There are still many companies in the consumer discretionary, tech and now travel industries that are (currently) experiencing robust demand and layering heaps of costs into them, when on the horizon a perfect storm of softening demanding and rising costs will combine to shock margins later in the year.   I believe investors have a misplaced optimism when reported GDP numbers come in high and lagged company reports show positive trends - go back to 2011 and 2012 and look at the number of business failures and tanked share prices occurring during a modest recession, and it should give pause for thought.

I believe and hope there will be *some* opportunities to invest at below the cycle / fundamental value but it won't be obvious and it will take time to occur, and patience will be required. Calendar years don't perfectly encapsulate business cycles and a lot of these things could spill over into 2024 (or not). Reckon it'll be another tough year but we are slowly getting there.

Revisting this thread and my contribution to it.

No crystal ball is perfect but the year is going about how I thought.

My portfolio and dividends in great nick. Pretty good showing in the stock picking competition too.

[Ferg]

It's about time we dredged up this old thread to look at our predictions from late 2022/early 2023....

The jury is still out on my predictions although I see David Seymour will get a ministerial position.  The other predictions are still waiting for additional data.  I'm 50/50 on my #1 where GDP was negative in Q1, but not Q2.  I wonder if there is still a chance for Q1 to be revised such that there was no recession in 2023?  HPI prediction might be safe but I'm not so sure about #4 where share prices have no nett loss over the year - although I notice I didn't stipulate how that was measured.  My bad.

How are everyone else's predictions going?

My predictions which you can all mock me for in 12 months and 12 days time:

1) No recession in NZ in 2023, in other words we do not have 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during 2023
2) David Seymour gets a ministerial appointment in 2023
3) NZ median house price to stabilise i.e. annual growth >= 0% as measured from 31 Dec 2022 to 31 Dec 2023
4) and H1 of 2023 will have plenty of opportunities to buy the dip of the dippity dip with share prices rebounding in H2

All are based on the assumption there is not another pandemic, or significant world health event, in 2023.  Otherwise anything can happen.

[Basil]

Labour will lose the 2023 electionThankfully they did.
Property will fall by another 10-20% It pretty much did
RYM will do a capital raise Correct again and what a bloody fiasco it was.
OCA will still attract an inordinate number of posts on both sites as people struggle to reconcile all the positive talk from the company with its poor financial results Correct again but its all going to come right really soon many keep telling me for the last several years
HLG will stun to the upside with earnings and dividends that will really please shareholders Correct again but there are now clouds over their FY24 numbers
The market will have another tough year with minimal overall returns Correct again
Bonds will perform well Got that one wrong but they are starting to come right
The war in Ukraine will continue all year and fuel prices will take off again Another one right
Inflation will cool to 5% by year end I think we're getting there
The Reserve Bank will remain behind the curve and will eventually look really stupid as they overtighten and keep rates higher for longer than is necessary. Definitely got that right.
Bealge will catch a large Kingfish from his new boat this summer and be absolutely ecstatic about it.
Buggar, that is still a work in progress.  The summer that never was.  Maybe this summer.

Happy with those predictions.