StockTalk

Some number crunching today for background research threw up some interesting facts based on analysis of the last 5 years.

1. Average split first half second half EPS is 57% v 43%. That's what makes this years split so truly remarkable at 47% v 53% and what really stunned me on Friday. Such a significant shift that's so different to historical patterns hints at some fundamental improvement in the business, for example, lower stock shrinkage with their RFID stock technology, better inventory management using that technology and / or lower discounting. (It certainly can't be explained by lower costs of doing business as we know shipping and distribution costs will be well up) so a shift of this magnitude against known headwinds is really quite remarkable and noteworthy. I'm looking forward to finding out more about this when we get the full report late next month.

2. The Average dividend payout ratio for the last 5 years has been 88.4%

3. The dividend split first half is quite interesting and they always seem to go quite conservative with the first half divvy. (2022 was a real outlier at 90%)
Average payout ratio first half is 71.7%...that compares to just 61.7% in the first half for FY26, (a real outlier on the low side) so they kept 10% more of the first half 47 CPS EPS this year, i.e. 4.7 CPS held back, probably to do with the very low level of imputation. This does suggest there could be positive Implications for the final dividend.

4. Second half divvy averages 111% of second half EPS ! (Wow, I found that fascinating). That's extremely unlikely to happen this year due to the very unusual situation of higher earnings in the second half but on EPS forecast at 99 CPS and an average payout ratio for the last 5 years of 88.4%, total dividends of 87.5 CPS for FY26 would not be out of alignment with previous history. 87.5 CPS less the unusually low payout of 29 CPS for the interim dividend suggests the final dividend payable in December could be as much as 58.5 CPS...surely not !!

I would hasten to add that my preference would be for them to hold more back this year to speed up Glassons store expansion in Australia.

So what final dividend would I lobby for if I was a Director ? I'd be suggesting 40 CPS, (up from 30.5 CPS last year) to Tim Glasson and let's speed up the store expansion. But Tim's getting on a bit in years and might just want to enjoy his share of all the extra cash, (see comment below about how cash per share has been building up in recent years), so more than 40 CPS is definitely on the cards.

Interestingly HLG, (as we all know has no debt), had $1.13 per share in cash at the interim reporting date FY26 up from 98 CPS in FY25, 77 CPS in FY24 and 54 CPS in FY23. That's a pretty impressive war chest they're building there.

I know it doesn't fit into this downturn thread .. but still - anybody still monitoring the SP?

Looks like SP managed to pass above MA 200. Golden Cross next?

Maybe time to change the downturning threads as well ... anyway, I do like rising share prices ;

Quote from: moose on Aug 29, 2026, 03:23 PMSo if (when) the share price tumbles futher on this news will the NZX/ASX regulators ask for a "please explain" from the board as to why they misled investors about the reason for his departure? They obviously knew what was coming and its hard to see how they could justify misleading shareholders for something that is obviously price sensitive?

I think it gets suspended on Monday unless they find some new independent directors

Remaining

Chris Meehan (Non-Executive Director)Role: Co-founder, majority shareholder, and former CEO/Chair. He stepped down from his executive leadership roles following a board-led investigation into his workplace conduct but remains on the board to consult on major development projects.Background: He founded the Winton business in 2009. He has an extensive history in real estate valuation and property development. In his early life, he was a member of the Australian sailing team for four years.

2. Michaela Meehan (Non-Executive Director)Role: Co-founder and majority shareholder with Chris Meehan.Background: Holds an MSc in Economics and Business Administration from Copenhagen Business School with over 20 years of property and treasury experience. Formerly a Senior Product Manager at Carlsberg and an Olympian for the Danish Sailing Team.

3. Glen Tupuhi (Independent Director)Role: Sole remaining independent director after recent resignations.Background: Brings over 30 years in Māori development, health, education, and justice, alongside public service and iwi governance expertise

.4. James Kemp (Non-Executive Director)Role: Non-Independent Director representing cornerstone investor TC Akarua 2 Pty Limited (Macquarie Asset Management). Resigned from the nominations committee amid governance disputes.Background: Over 10 years in real estate private equity and investment banking across Australasia and the UK, serving as an Associate Director at Macquarie and on other property boards.

5. Josh Phillips (Alternate Non-Executive Director)Role: Alternate Director for James Kemp.Background: Associate Director in Macquarie's Real Estate Team focusing on residential sectors in Australasia and the UK, and a director for Local Residential.



So Meehans / Maccas and Glen left

Quote from: Crackity on Aug 29, 2026, 10:07 PMYet news from across the ditch this month suggests not all airlines in the vicinity did as badly or had as many excuses


Qantas reported a statutory profit after tax of $1.29 billion for the 2026 financial year (FY26), down roughly 20% compared to the previous year.

Financial Highlights

Underlying Profit Before Tax: $2.064 billion (down $330 million year-on-year)Statutory Profit After Tax: $1.29 billion (down from $1.61 billion in FY25)Total Revenue: $25.52 billion (up 7.1%)Shareholder Returns: Final fully franked dividend of 19.8 cents per share ($300 million); a previously planned $150 million share buy-back was cancelled.Employee Bonus: Around 25,000 non-executive staff will receive $1,000 in Qantas shares.CEO Commentary and Key PressuresGroup CEO Vanessa Hudson noted that the airline achieved high customer satisfaction and operational performance despite a severe external headwind.The Middle East Conflict: The ongoing geopolitical conflict had a net negative earnings impact of $420 million. It forced disrupted flight paths and doubled jet fuel prices, pushing the group's total fuel bill up significantly.

Segment Performance:Group Domestic remained resilient, delivering $1.44 billion in underlying EBIT.Group International and Freight profits declined to $650 million due to the heavy fuel cost pressures.Qantas Loyalty continued to shine, growing underlying EBIT by 12% to $625 million.Fleet Renewal: Hudson emphasized that the carrier is pressing forward with its massive multi-year fleet renewal program to improve long-term efficiency and rebuild the national carrier's brand reputation

Qantas has nearly 10B debt in thier book.

Yet news from across the ditch this month suggests not all airlines in the vicinity did as badly or had as many excuses


Qantas reported a statutory profit after tax of $1.29 billion for the 2026 financial year (FY26), down roughly 20% compared to the previous year.

Financial Highlights

Underlying Profit Before Tax: $2.064 billion (down $330 million year-on-year)Statutory Profit After Tax: $1.29 billion (down from $1.61 billion in FY25)Total Revenue: $25.52 billion (up 7.1%)Shareholder Returns: Final fully franked dividend of 19.8 cents per share ($300 million); a previously planned $150 million share buy-back was cancelled.Employee Bonus: Around 25,000 non-executive staff will receive $1,000 in Qantas shares.CEO Commentary and Key PressuresGroup CEO Vanessa Hudson noted that the airline achieved high customer satisfaction and operational performance despite a severe external headwind.The Middle East Conflict: The ongoing geopolitical conflict had a net negative earnings impact of $420 million. It forced disrupted flight paths and doubled jet fuel prices, pushing the group's total fuel bill up significantly.

Segment Performance:Group Domestic remained resilient, delivering $1.44 billion in underlying EBIT.Group International and Freight profits declined to $650 million due to the heavy fuel cost pressures.Qantas Loyalty continued to shine, growing underlying EBIT by 12% to $625 million.Fleet Renewal: Hudson emphasized that the carrier is pressing forward with its massive multi-year fleet renewal program to improve long-term efficiency and rebuild the national carrier's brand reputation

Quote from: Shareguy on Jun 28, 2026, 06:41 AM15 years of flat house price growth says Bill English.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/24-06-2026/nz-still-seems-to-think-house-prices-will-rise-good-luck-with-that

I see other way around. Property bust it not over yet. We are in the final stage of the current very long cycle. Property markets are slowing down globally. Next are stock markets. Not that far away. Perhaps  in 2027 or 2028?

Fable 5 by Anthropic - HLG Report.

  https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/f00c8792-ed4d-475c-ac47-7a065c71c7b7

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings (NZX: HLG)
FY2026 Full-Year Preview and Forward Analysis
From the 1 February 2026 Interim Report to the 28 August 2026 Full-Year Trading Update

Prepared by: AI Fable 5 Mythos Date: 29 August 2026 Watermark: Fable 5 Mythos Reporting currency: NZD unless stated. Financial year ends on or about 1 August.

Source documents (project knowledge):

HLG Interim Report, six months ended 1 February 2026 (unaudited), authorised 27 March 2026.
HLG Trading Update for the full year ended 1 August 2026, released 28 August 2026 (preliminary, unaudited, pre-dividend declaration).

Supplementary sources: RBA Monetary Policy Decision, 11 August 2026 (Media Release 2026-19); NZX market data as at close 28 August 2026; HLG Modern Slavery Statement FY2023 and company sustainability disclosures;  Full audited results and dividend declaration are scheduled for 29 September 2026.

1. Executive Summary

HLG has guided to a FY2026 result that is a structural step-change rather than a cyclical bounce. The 28 August update confirms Group sales of $563.0M (+19.6%; +15.6% constant currency) and net profit before tax (NPBT) of $83.0M–$84.5M (+42.1% to +44.7%) against $58.4M in FY2025. The implied second half (H2) is the strongest half in the company's recent history in absolute NPBT terms and materially exceeds the Chairman's own March 2026 caution that H1 growth would be "much more difficult to replicate".

Quote from: Mr Cashflow on Aug 13, 2023, 09:12 PMSuddenly, SAN has caught the  eye of investors. May be contrarians who want to take positions in neglected stocks.

Those who invested in 2023 are winners.

High Jet Fuel, high maintaining cost, the  Fees,  levies, and landing charges
along with periodical black swan events are hitting airlines hard. So the recovery is long way off.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/air-new-zealand-loss-middle-east-conflict-caused-205m-hit-to-result

Air New Zealand loss: Middle East conflict caused $205m hit to result