StockTalk

Quote from: Basil on Jun 01, 2026, 06:34 PMGosh talk about being on the gravy train. 

Yes, same Chair as Oceania. Hmmm

Gosh talk about being on the gravy train. 

Quote from: Basil on Jun 01, 2026, 05:33 PMThink I read somewhere quite recently that the CEO of EBOS is the highest paid CEO of any NZX listed company.
Paying a king's ransom for mediocrity ?...you folks be the judge.

Got A$2.4m sign on payment lol

AI Overview               

EBOS Group CEO Adam Hall's total annual remuneration package is valued at approximately A$5.4 million (A$1.35 million base salary), not including an additional one-time sign-on incentive of A$2.4 million.The material components of his annual employment agreement include:

Fixed Base Salary: A$1,350,000 (inclusive of superannuation contributions).

Short-Term Incentive (STI): Up to A$1,822,500 per annum (135% of his base salary). This has a stretch component and is evaluated against annual target objectives.

Long-Term Incentive (LTI): A long-term performance rights plan valued at up to A$2.23 million, measured over three-year performance periods.

Sign-On Incentive: A A$2,400,000 package provided in two parts to compensate for foregone incentives from his previous employer:Cash: A$960,000 paid shortly after his commencement.Performance Rights: Valued at A$1,440,000 vesting in three equal tranches on the first, second, and third anniversaries of his start date.

Craigs have released a comprehensive paper outlining that based on valuing GNE's hydro assets at the same multiple as its peers, you're almost getting all GNE's other assets for free.  I had a good read through this today and they make some excellent points and the research looks sound.
If I recall correctly a couple of years ago Jarden opinioned along similar lines.

Craigs outlined the execution risk of creating so much generation to displace legacy generation assets in the next 6 years.

Their price target is $3 but I note they are the outlier with the consensus price target at $2.58.

Interestingly in Craigs view dividend growth can recommence after the fixed period that we're currently in subject to inflation adjustments, from FY29 onward.

I am not entirely convinced and think their debt will be pushing up towards the top end of the comfort zone as the development of their full suite of ~ $2 Billion of new renewable assets reaches a conclusion in FY32.

That said, its an interesting one from a dividend hounds perspective because not only do they have the highest yield by a country mile compared to the other Gentailiers, its appears they can maintain this in the medium term after they roll out their full suite of new renewable assets and then money made from legacy assets for as long as they last is cream on top of what looks like a fairly tasty cappuccino.

I've rethought my investment thesis and come to the initial conclusion that this will probably remain a sound dividend hounds investment for the foreseeable future despite the relatively limited life of GNE's legacy assets..  I'm a real doubting Thomas about Craigs estimate of 21 cps dividends in FY32 but I believe its plausible they could maintain their current trajectory of nearly matching annual inflation adjustments for future dividends from their current lower base.

Its still a mystery to me why the board promises they will match inflation adjustments but never quite gets there.  This pattern goes right back to when they were first listed.    Its puts me off a bit however I think they're a sound hold here.  Time will tell if they can get back to $3.  I have serious reservations about that and my gut tells me the consensus analyst target price of $2.58 seems far more plausible.  I'd be very happy for GNE to prove me wrong of course.
Noting too, the chart looks pretty good and it busted out to a fresh 1 year high last Friday.  A long way to go to get back to its glory days of $3.90 though. 

Think I read somewhere quite recently that the CEO of EBOS is the highest paid CEO of any NZX listed company.
Paying a king's ransom for mediocrity ?...you folks be the judge.

Matt Peek a bit concerned with new management. This what he said last month -

EBOS (-17%) delivered core operating earnings in line with
expectations, however flagged that higher lease costs from its
distribution centre renewal programme continue to weigh on
'bottom line' profit performance. This adds to caution about the new
management team's command of the business, with the share price
trading around a 25% discount to the average price-to-earnings ratio
over the last 10 years (around 15x versus 20x). We think the current
valuation is attractive for what is fundamentally still a business with
both attractive defensive and growth characteristics.

Quote from: Plata on May 30, 2026, 12:18 PMI started buying back into this recently. The way I see it is if you try value this using PEG or equivalent it wont screen as very attractive. But this ignores the wider picture that the majority of the ASX200 is in the same boat. On a comparitive basis the valuation here is pretty undemanding and I believe that most of EBO sub-units have been shown to be pretty resiliant over the last 6 years to various shocks. If the NZ chem warehouse contract was lost at the same time as the AU one I think things would be looking much rosier here sentiment wise. Thats double edged sword of having such big key customer contracts is the loss of even one can obscure otherwise quite satisfactory performance.

Insider buying while limited has been consistent throughout this downtrend with no selling, also notable.

You might be right about fundamentals and the future growth outlook

But it seems to me that the market has lost confidence in management. This been compounded by their communications which seem tolack any enthusiasm.

I don't rate that new CEO that highly, think a few market movers agree

Liz Coutts been Director for 23 years but at least she has said she's moving on soon.

Somehow Ebos need to get the market enthused about them if there is going to be any decent uplift in the share price.

I started buying back into this recently. The way I see it is if you try value this using PEG or equivalent it wont screen as very attractive. But this ignores the wider picture that the majority of the ASX200 is in the same boat. On a comparitive basis the valuation here is pretty undemanding and I believe that most of EBO sub-units have been shown to be pretty resiliant over the last 6 years to various shocks. If the NZ chem warehouse contract was lost at the same time as the AU one I think things would be looking much rosier here sentiment wise. Thats double edged sword of having such big key customer contracts is the loss of even one can obscure otherwise quite satisfactory performance.

Insider buying while limited has been consistent throughout this downtrend with no selling, also notable.

Insert from Craig's

The lucky country does it again
A better than expected 2H, with underlying growth on pcp
Group PBT -8.5% vs pcp to $351m vs CIPe $338m / market consensus $349m. This was a better result than we expected, mainly due to a strong contribution from Australia which reported 2H PBT up 23% in AUD, with some fx translation benefit boosting this further. For the group 2H PBT was marginally down vs pcp (-1.4%), but after adjusting for the discretionary bonus accrual we estimate the underlying (pre-bonus) PBT was down 4.1% for the FY, and up 6.9% in 2H. The Americas region remains volatile and reported a larger 2H loss than we had assumed. NZ reported a further decline in PBT in 2H, and was also weaker than we had assumed.
Outlook statement better than expected, but with some caution
The outlook statement was more upbeat than we had expected with improved trading in 2H 26 carrying through to the first two months of FY27. To-date MFT appears to have seen no material impact from the Middle East war and elevated fuel prices, but did express some caution that we have yet to see the full inflationary impacts in the economy which could impact the medium-term macro environment.
As usual MFT provide no specific earnings guidance. We have increased our FY27 PBT forecast from $387m to $406m, reflecting the strong Australian result and fx movements (particularly the NZD/AUD).
Price Target $69.00 (prev $68.10). Neutral rating remains
On our revised estimates MFT is trading on a rolling forward PE of 21.7x. Our Price Target remains based on the average of 1) our forward DCF valuation ($69.30, WACC 8.4%) to incorporate a longer-term view of capital intensity, and 2) international peer PE multiples (22x, $68.70).
We have retained our Neutral rating. While this was a good result and FY27 trading YTD has been good, there remains significant macro uncertainty that we think could affect the medium-term. FX movements have boosted this result and our near-term forecasts, but we are conscious this could unwind and become a headwind for gr

Wow! Huge IFT month end sale going on at close today.

6.4 mill shares at VWAP around $15.71 when I looked.

This included 2 mill @ traded at $14.67 ! ( how does that even happen?? - index rebalancing related party sales??)

Anyway's onwards and upwards from $15.70 I suspect.