StockTalk

Nice update.

In Gisborne, half the vines are getting yanked out.  Something like 650Ha worth

Forsyth Barr out with a note this morning raising their price target to $4.25 and projecting fully imputed dividends of 35, 38 and 40 cps for the next 3 years. (Noting the company itself is targeting 42 CPS for FY29. Gosh that's impressive dividend growth.

Trades cum the final divvy of 17 cps so on a theoretical ex divvy price in late Sept, i.e taking off the near term divvy from today's purchase price, ($3.65 - $0.17) = $3.48 it offers prospective gross yields of 14%, 15.2% and 16% for the next 3 years paid quarterly. Also noting the possible capital management initiative they called out for after 1H FY27 results, special divvy or buy-back and also noting there's no debt on their balance sheet and the very strong cash position. (Forsyth Barr forecasting a ~ $25m buy-back over the course of H2 FY27).
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/478735/attachment/475687/478735-475687.pdf

SKT calling out dividends of at least 35 CPS for FY27.
Trades cum a final 17 cps fully imputed dividend and I think shareholders can expect another 9 CPS, (new quarterly divvy) before Christmas.
I think these prospective gross yields are a "game-changer" and any self respecting dividend hound that loves divvy feeds would want a piece of this so I started up position today.

Delegat Wines announced their annual results last Friday per here.

TLDR: revenues up, profits up, dividend up, guidance profit up, debts down.....what more can an investor ask for??

Notes from the investor conference call:
  ~ The business is better positioned than it was this time last year
  ~ Delegat Wines is pursuing "disciplined growth"
  ~ Their new varietal into which they have invested lately, Pinot Grigio, is coming on stream and fitting nicely into the existing distribution network
  ~ China sales are up 68% on a very small base, and Oyster Bay is the #1 NZ wine brand measured by case sales
  ~ USA continues to be the primary focus
  ~ Currently DGL have "touched 3-4m consumers" in the USA out of a market of 50m premium wine consumers

Financial highlights

~ Case sales at 3.32m were up +4.1% on last years 3.19m
  ~ USA/Canada up +2.8% (1.55m cases)
  ~ UK/Ireland/Europe up +1.9% (1.03m cases)
  ~ NZ/Oz/Asia up +10.4% (741k cases)

~ Revenues at $364m up +4.1% on last year
  ~ Average revenue per case was almost identical to last year due to:
    ~ Favourable sales mix and FX rates of +$3m were offset by:
    ~ higher tariffs and lower pricing in some markets of ($3m)

~ Operating profit* at $61.5m was up +20% or +$10.4m on last year's $51.1m due to:
  ~ Higher sales +$14.5m
  ~ Lower COGS +$4.4m
  ~ Higher GP of +$18.9m was offset by:
    ~ Higher sales & marketing costs -$2.9m
    ~ Administration, governance & finance costs -$0.9m
    ~ Higher tax expense of -$4.7m
  ~ Operating profit impact +$10.4m

~ Investment metrics: 
  ~ EPS of 60.8c versus today's share price of $4.55 has a backward P/E ratio of 7.5
  ~ Dividend increased to 22c fully imputed (last year 20c)
  ~ Payout of 22c versus EPS of 60.8c is 36%
  ~ Gross dividend yield is currently 6.7%

~ Cashflow & debts
  ~ Operating cash flow was ($110.5m - $9.6m) $100.9m or 99.8c per share
  ~ Capex of $22m (last year $44m)
  ~ Debt repayments of $58m (last year $31m)
  ~ Interest bearing debt to equity is 0.47:1.00
  ~ Net debt to equity ratio of 0.45:1.00
   
~ Guidance
  ~ Case sales for next year are forecast to be 3.4m cases (2-3% growth)
  ~ NPAT for FY27 is forecast to be in the range of $62-$66m
  ~ Taking the midpoint of $64m is EPS of 63.3c (forward P/E ratio is 7.2)
  ~ Capex guidance of $34m means they could repay another $50m in debt in FY27
  ~ Note: the start of FY27 has benefitted from the heat waves in the UK, and the CEO stated they want to "under promise and over deliver" {music to my ears!}

~ USA Tariff Refund
  ~ There is a contingent asset of $16m of USA tariff refunds that have not been included in the FY26 numbers or the FY27 guidance.
  ~ This $16m will be recognised if and/or when it is banked and is a one-off upside of 15.8c per share.
  ~ This was the result of a High Court ruling that deemed the initial tariffs were illegal.

~ Barossa Valley write-down
  ~ One thing that was surprising was the write down in the value of Barossa Valley Estate of $8.7m.
  ~ This was excluded from operating profits.
  ~ It is non-cash and does not impact any funding covenants or ratios.
  ~ Given the write-down was against assets instead of goodwill, it could be reversed in future under the right conditions.
  ~ This is a one-off and unlikely to repeat
  ~ The Directors state "The Board remains confident in the strength of the Group's core business, the quality of its brands and assets, and its long-term growth prospects."
  ~ The write off was based on a theoretical exercise of looking out at 7 years of discounted cashflows for Barossa Valley and comparing that value to the book value of their assets and writing off the difference
  ~ The directors call this being "prudent".

My notes:
A couple of things stand out for me:
 1) the resilience of case sales shows the premiumisation strategy is working in an overall declining wine market.  As I touched on earlier, different segments within the wine market are behaving differently.
 2) the lower cost of sales per case is noticeable (higher sales but lower COGS).  I asked a question during the investor conference call and was assured this number would not be bouncing around too much this year.  This is despite the lower harvest in 2026 vs 2025.  The inventory on hand has a mix of margins which will insulate FY27 from wild swings in values in FY27.  Also, the cost and volume of grapes is just one input of many in inventory valuation.....this tells me there is good cost control in areas such as the vineyard operations and winemaking etc.  I heard an anecdote today the winemaking process in Hawkes Bay is highly automated to ensure consistency of inputs (it is more of a science that an art).  This results in a high consistency of output which protects the brand.

All in all very happy holder.  Graphs to follow.

Quote from: Soolaimon on Today at 11:12 AMShare split comming ?

I suggested that to the board last year.

Quote from: Basil on Today at 11:01 AMForsyth Barr's latest research notes a significantly higher price target of $14.50 rating OUTPERFORM.
EPS for FY26 is 98 CPS, their target for FY27 aligns with my view at $1.12 rising to $1.18 in FY28.

DPS this year is 75 CPS, suggests a final of 46 CPS 47% imputed, (As you all know I'm hoping for 100% imputation with this December final divvy), rising to 90 CPS in FY27 and 95 CPS in FY28, imputation level's in the low 40% range. (I will update my view on the medium term outlook for imputation credits after they announce their result on 29 September)

Forward PE for FY27 aligns with my view of 10.4.
They note the large runway for growth in Australia that we've all been talking about.

Share split comming ?

Forsyth Barr's latest research notes a significantly higher price target of $14.50 rating OUTPERFORM.
EPS for FY26 is 98 CPS, their target for FY27 aligns with my view at $1.12 rising to $1.18 in FY28.

DPS this year is 75 CPS, suggests a final of 46 CPS 47% imputed, (As you all know I'm hoping for 100% imputation with this December final divvy), rising to 90 CPS in FY27 and 95 CPS in FY28, imputation level's in the low 40% range. (I will update my view on the medium term outlook for imputation credits after they announce their result on 29 September)

Forward PE for FY27 aligns with my view of 10.4.
They note the large runway for growth in Australia that we've all been talking about.

Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 30, 2026, 11:25 AMI know it doesn't fit into this downturn thread .. but still - anybody still monitoring the SP?

Looks like SP managed to pass above MA 200. Golden Cross next?

Maybe time to change the downturning threads as well ... anyway, I do like rising share prices ;

EMA Golden Cross was 11th August 

Some number crunching today for background research threw up some interesting facts based on analysis of the last 5 years.

1. Average split first half second half EPS is 57% v 43%. That's what makes this years split so truly remarkable at 47% v 53% and what really stunned me on Friday. Such a significant shift that's so different to historical patterns hints at some fundamental improvement in the business, for example, lower stock shrinkage with their RFID stock technology, better inventory management using that technology and / or lower discounting. (It certainly can't be explained by lower costs of doing business as we know shipping and distribution costs will be well up) so a shift of this magnitude against known headwinds is really quite remarkable and noteworthy. I'm looking forward to finding out more about this when we get the full report late next month.

2. The Average dividend payout ratio for the last 5 years has been 88.4%

3. The dividend split first half is quite interesting and they always seem to go quite conservative with the first half divvy. (2022 was a real outlier at 90%)
Average payout ratio first half is 71.7%...that compares to just 61.7% in the first half for FY26, (a real outlier on the low side) so they kept 10% more of the first half 47 CPS EPS this year, i.e. 4.7 CPS held back, probably to do with the very low level of imputation. This does suggest there could be positive Implications for the final dividend.

4. Second half divvy averages 111% of second half EPS ! (Wow, I found that fascinating). That's extremely unlikely to happen this year due to the very unusual situation of higher earnings in the second half but on EPS forecast at 99 CPS and an average payout ratio for the last 5 years of 88.4%, total dividends of 87.5 CPS for FY26 would not be out of alignment with previous history. 87.5 CPS less the unusually low payout of 29 CPS for the interim dividend suggests the final dividend payable in December could be as much as 58.5 CPS...surely not !!

I would hasten to add that my preference would be for them to hold more back this year to speed up Glassons store expansion in Australia.

So what final dividend would I lobby for if I was a Director ? I'd be suggesting 40 CPS, (up from 30.5 CPS last year) to Tim Glasson and let's speed up the store expansion. But Tim's getting on a bit in years and might just want to enjoy his share of all the extra cash, (see comment below about how cash per share has been building up in recent years), so more than 40 CPS is definitely on the cards.

Interestingly HLG, (as we all know has no debt), had $1.13 per share in cash at the interim reporting date FY26 up from 98 CPS in FY25, 77 CPS in FY24 and 54 CPS in FY23. That's a pretty impressive war chest they're building there.

I know it doesn't fit into this downturn thread .. but still - anybody still monitoring the SP?

Looks like SP managed to pass above MA 200. Golden Cross next?

Maybe time to change the downturning threads as well ... anyway, I do like rising share prices ;

Quote from: moose on Aug 29, 2026, 03:23 PMSo if (when) the share price tumbles futher on this news will the NZX/ASX regulators ask for a "please explain" from the board as to why they misled investors about the reason for his departure? They obviously knew what was coming and its hard to see how they could justify misleading shareholders for something that is obviously price sensitive?

I think it gets suspended on Monday unless they find some new independent directors

Remaining

Chris Meehan (Non-Executive Director)Role: Co-founder, majority shareholder, and former CEO/Chair. He stepped down from his executive leadership roles following a board-led investigation into his workplace conduct but remains on the board to consult on major development projects.Background: He founded the Winton business in 2009. He has an extensive history in real estate valuation and property development. In his early life, he was a member of the Australian sailing team for four years.

2. Michaela Meehan (Non-Executive Director)Role: Co-founder and majority shareholder with Chris Meehan.Background: Holds an MSc in Economics and Business Administration from Copenhagen Business School with over 20 years of property and treasury experience. Formerly a Senior Product Manager at Carlsberg and an Olympian for the Danish Sailing Team.

3. Glen Tupuhi (Independent Director)Role: Sole remaining independent director after recent resignations.Background: Brings over 30 years in Māori development, health, education, and justice, alongside public service and iwi governance expertise

.4. James Kemp (Non-Executive Director)Role: Non-Independent Director representing cornerstone investor TC Akarua 2 Pty Limited (Macquarie Asset Management). Resigned from the nominations committee amid governance disputes.Background: Over 10 years in real estate private equity and investment banking across Australasia and the UK, serving as an Associate Director at Macquarie and on other property boards.

5. Josh Phillips (Alternate Non-Executive Director)Role: Alternate Director for James Kemp.Background: Associate Director in Macquarie's Real Estate Team focusing on residential sectors in Australasia and the UK, and a director for Local Residential.



So Meehans / Maccas and Glen left