IKE - IKE GPS Group

[Greekwatchdog]

Trading at $0.80 on ASX. Currently down $0.12 today on just over 100k shares.

Interesting ahead of tomorrows update

[Minimoke]

Trading at $0.80 on ASX. Currently down $0.12 today on just over 100k shares.

Interesting ahead of tomorrows update

Appears to be tracking to plan. $32m in cash. Nice. We cant be far away from expecting a dividend.



FY26 guidance reiterated for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue.

New product initiatives tracking to plan

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to provide a performance update for the nine months to 31 December 2025. All figures are in NZD, rounded to the nearest decimal.

Highlights include:
• Exit Run Rate (ERR) of platform subscription revenue ~NZ$21.1m annualized (+35% vs pcp).
• Strong growth of recognized platform subscription revenue in the nine-month period to 31 December 2025 of ~NZ$14.1m (+38% vs pcp).
• Total revenue of ~NZ$19.8m (+7% vs pcp).
• Reiteration of FY26 guidance for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue and EBITDA breakeven on a monthly run-rate basis by the end of FY26.
• Gross margin percentage increased to ~79% (up from pcp of 68%).
• Total cash of NZ$32.3m as at 31 December 2025, net receivables of NZ$2.9m, with no debt. This puts IKE in a strong financial position to execute its product roadmap and market development.

[Greekwatchdog]

Appears to be tracking to plan. $32m in cash. Nice. We cant be far away from expecting a dividend.



FY26 guidance reiterated for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue.

New product initiatives tracking to plan

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to provide a performance update for the nine months to 31 December 2025. All figures are in NZD, rounded to the nearest decimal.

Highlights include:
• Exit Run Rate (ERR) of platform subscription revenue ~NZ$21.1m annualized (+35% vs pcp).
• Strong growth of recognized platform subscription revenue in the nine-month period to 31 December 2025 of ~NZ$14.1m (+38% vs pcp).
• Total revenue of ~NZ$19.8m (+7% vs pcp).
• Reiteration of FY26 guidance for ~35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue and EBITDA breakeven on a monthly run-rate basis by the end of FY26.
• Gross margin percentage increased to ~79% (up from pcp of 68%).
• Total cash of NZ$32.3m as at 31 December 2025, net receivables of NZ$2.9m, with no debt. This puts IKE in a strong financial position to execute its product roadmap and market development.

Closed at $0.855 on ASX last night. Solid quarter, 4th quarted seems to have started strongly..

Dividend?? I wonder if they have even continued that??

[Minimoke]

Closed at $0.855 on ASX last night. Solid quarter, 4th quarted seems to have started strongly..

Dividend?? I wonder if they have even continued that??

I was a bit tongue in cheek with the divi comment. I like companies with cash and no debt. My first preference is that they use that to grow the profitability of the business.

Failing that, investors should get a return (assuming accounts payable aren't out of control)

[Left Field]

My notes on IKE 1HFY26 presentation as today

Low key presentation from CFO (no Glen Milnes)

See the tables in this link  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/466639/attachment/461244/466639-461244.pdf

Key negative
Transaction revenue 45% down on pp, this put down by US Govt's mid 2025 cancelation of all contracts and requirement for providers/contractors to re-apply plus late 2025 US Govt shut down.  Comment made that there are 4Qtr signs that activity is now recommencing.

Key positives
- total revenue $19.8 mill up 7% on pp
- Gross Margin improvement from 88% to 93%
- Subscription revenue up 38% on pp and in 4th Qtr up 44% to-date.
- Pole Forman has generated over $10mill and "potential upside is still significant"
- In terms of new developments AI assisted Pole Pilot now in customer trial and likely for introduction later in 2026. Pole Pilot is getting v positive revues and likely to  sell for $US4,000 RPU versus Pole Forman at $US2,000 RPU, ie double the unit RPU price for Pole Foreman.
- With $32 mill cash on hand,  future cap raise unlikely and would only be considered for (say,) a significant 'bolt on' aquisition

[Greekwatchdog]

Note ex For Bar this morning...

ikeGPS (IKE) delivered another mixed performance update in 3Q26, but one that reinforced the underlying quality of its growing recurring revenue streams. Subscription momentum remained strong, margins continued to expand, customer adds were solid, and the product roadmap is progressing broadly in line with expectations.

While total revenue growth moderated due to continued weakness in the Transactions segment, the transition toward higher-quality, recurring software revenues at solid margins is now well advanced. PoleForeman has scaled rapidly to a material ARR base in just two years, while newer AI-enabled products are beginning to enhance pricing and deepen customer relationships.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance, including +35% or greater Subscription growth and EBITDA breakeven on a run-rate basis by year-end. R&D for IKE's two new product modules is also on track. In our view, the update underscores a business that is executing steadily, with improving earnings quality and a long growth runway supported by favourable US utility infrastructure tailwinds.

We lift our margin assumptions, and our blended spot valuation rises +8% to NZ$1.28.

[Left Field]

Good to see IKE SP climbing again after it got beaten down around the sale of 2 mill shares.

[Greekwatchdog]

Good to see IKE SP climbing again after it got beaten down around the sale of 2 mill shares.

I suspect its short lived.

ASX trend still pretty grim. I guess the concerns about software/AI related stocks has fallen into this one. Odd given they are building their own AI modules which has been well articulated to market...

Its onlt 6.5 weeks to go before end of financial year so guess we will get 4th quarter update sometime in April and hope its continued positive news before FY result in May.

[Left Field]

You're right GWD....... I was getting carried away.... I'll shut up until the results are out.

[Greekwatchdog]

You're right GWD....... I was getting carried away.... I'll shut up until the results are out.

LOL, Its all very panicky on small volume on fear. They have obviously forgotten or are completely ignorant to the fact that IKE raised caqpitial to build these AI modules that the Customer Council was asking for

Totally Irrational but thats the market

[Left Field]

Big crossing of 1.2 mill shares today at $1.04

Market getting a tab excited ahead of next week's likely update?

[Greekwatchdog]

Big crossing of 1.2 mill shares today at $1.04

Market getting a tab excited ahead of next week's likely update?

Hmm certainly is interesting timing. Have wondered the last week or so on ASX if there was some news out there as there was a volume increase with share price.

Guess we will find out soon, very soon.

[Left Field]

IKE looking good with this update...........well worth reading the detail........onwards & upwards.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/471388
 
 ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to provide a performance update for the 12 months to 31 March 2026. All figures are in NZD, rounded to the nearest decimal.
 
 Highlights include:
 • FY26 Platform Subscription Revenue ~NZ$19.2m (+33% vs pcp) — FY26 guidance of approximately 35% subscription revenue growth materially delivered.
 • Positive underlying EBITDA achieved in the month of March 2026 — FY26 guidance delivered.
 • FY27 guidance for similar levels of growth for Platform Subscription revenue.
 • Exit Run Rate (ERR) of Platform Subscription Revenue ~NZ$20.7m annualised at 31 March 2026 (+18% vs pcp; +21% in constant currency). Noting one larger, long-term communications customer completed a project in 4Q aided by IKE technology. This was announced to the market early in the FY26 year. This national group remains a customer and excluding this project completion ERR Platform Subscription Revenue would have exited the year at +30% in constant currency.
 • FY26 Total Revenue ~NZ$26.6m (+6% vs pcp)
 • Gross margin percentage increased to ~81% (up from pcp of 69%). Platform Subscription Gross Margin ~94%.
 • FY26 gross margin of ~NZ$21.4m (+23% vs pcp)
 • Total Cash of ~NZ$33m (ahead of the ~NZ$32.3m reported at 3Q FY26), net receivables ~NZ$4.3m and no debt as at 31 March

[Left Field]

Interesting aside from yesterday's update. Glen was asked about the risk of disruption to IKE caused by AI.

His response was quite the opposite. He saw AI as an "accelerator", stating that IKE are achieving quick enhancements and new additions more cheaply and faster working with staff in Mexico and using AI. He also hinted of a new IKE product/service to be released "very very soon."

[Greekwatchdog]

Interesting aside from yesterday's update. Glen was asked about the risk of disruption to IKE caused by AI.

His response was quite the opposite. He saw AI as an "accelerator", stating that IKE are achieving quick enhancements and new additions more cheaply and faster working with staff in Mexico and using AI. He also hinted of a new IKE product/service to be released "very very soon."

Yes LF the software scare was miss understood by investors of IKE.
For Bar update below, interesting reading

Closed FY26 in better shape than the quarter-on-quarter decline in exit ARR would suggest, with the run-rate impacted by a one-off communications project completion. Management materially delivered on the two key commitments for FY26, with Subscription revenue growth broadly in line with guidance and positive underlying EBITDA on a monthly basis in March. Underlying economics continue to improve, with Subscription mix now 72% of revenue versus 57% in FY25, group gross margin stepping higher, PoleForeman scaling to a material ARR base within two years of launch, and PolePilot lifting ARPU across the IKE Office Pro base with no churn. FY27 now rests on seat growth, the PolePilot price uplift flowing through, continued customer additions, and progress on the council-led modules. US grid modernisation trends remain supportive, and continued execution on product rollout builds further confidence in IKE's pending product launches. Our spot valuation lifts +1cps to NZ$1.15.

What's changed?
Earnings: FY26 EBITDA estimate lifts +NZ$0.5m, while FY27 remains broadly flat and FY28 lifts +NZ$0.2m.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation lifts +1cps to NZ$1.15, with weaker comparables partially offsetting a higher DCF.
FY26 guidance largely delivered, albeit exit ARR softer than anticipated
Platform Subscription revenue for FY26 grew +33% to NZ$19.2m, a modest -4% miss to our expectations and slightly below management's ~+35% or greater guidance, reflecting the timing of contract signings in March. Exit ARR was the weaker print, up only +18% to NZ$20.7m and down from 3Q26's NZ$21.1m, following the completion of a project with communications customer Charter in 4Q26. Excluding that timing, constant currency exit ARR grew +30%. Impressively, PoleForeman now sits at ~NZ$11m ARR with ~200 customers subscribed within two years of launch, well ahead of initial expectations.

Margin uplift exceeded expectations
Total revenue grew +6% to NZ$26.6m, while gross profit increased +23% to NZ$21.4m, with group margin expanding to 81% versus 69% in FY25. Subscription margin reached 94% for FY26, implying a fourth quarter segment gross margin of as high as 96%. Subscription revenue now represents 72% of group revenue, versus 57% in FY25. Transaction revenue fell -35% to NZ$5.0m on US rural fibre weakness, although 4Q26 segment margin improved to 49% as work shifted offshore. PolePilot's ~10% price uplift across the IKE Office Pro subscription base landed with no churn, with the benefit primarily to be recognised in FY27.

FY27 outlook remains optimistic, with IKE guiding for similar Subscription revenue growth to FY26
FY27 guidance for similar Subscription revenue growth to FY26 is credible. PolePilot pricing will flow through in FY27, net customer additions are holding, and +15% FY26 seat growth annualises into FY27 expansion. Beta release of IKE's first new product is targeted within nine months, with the second now in full-scale development. With ~NZ$33m cash and no debt, funding is not a constraint.

Earnings revisions
We revise our forecasts following IKE's FY26 trading update. FY26 Subscription revenue is rebased to NZ$19.2m, with FY27 segment growth maintained at ~+33%, in line with guidance. We recalibrate FY26 gross margins across all segments, lift Subscription segment long-term margins +1ppt to 95% (previously 94%), and raise our medium-term Hardware margin assumption to 80% (from 74%), reflecting the segment's continued mix shift towards higher-margin service revenues.

We modestly accelerate our new product revenue assumptions, now forecasting initial revenue contributions in late FY27 (with management expecting first contract signings in late 3Q27 or 4Q27) and increasing FY28 revenue to NZ$6m (+NZ$3m). Increased confidence in the product roadmap is supported by: (1) strong PoleForeman execution, with ARR reaching NZ$11m within two years; (2) PolePilot development and rollout, having enabled ~+10% price uplift across the IKE Office Pro subscription base; (3) management expectations for pricing to be well above the US$2k PoleForman ARPU; and (4) first-time disclosure of customer council members (including Duke Energy, Southern Company, Exelon, Entergy), representing some of the largest utility providers in the US.

AI as an accelerant, not a disruptor
Management used the results call to argue that AI widens IKE's moat rather than threatening it. They pointed to three pillars: (1) IKE is embedded in utility engineering standards: when Standards Directors co-create product specifications with IKE, those specifications get written into utility engineering rulebooks, so every engineer in that utility must use IKE; (2) the company has a proprietary dataset of more than 20m human-engineered power assets that general-purpose LLMs cannot replicate; and (3) IKE has an independently assessed net promoter score (NPS) of 91, built over a decade across North American utilities and communications customers. We made the same argument across the sector in our Tech Sector: The Software Endgame—Who Owns the Workflow? report (13 April 2026): vendors embedded in critical workflows with deep domain expertise and proprietary data are structurally better positioned than the recent tech selloff implies. PolePilot proves it commercially, with a ~+10% price uplift across the IKE Office Pro base landing with no churn. We note 50% of Office Pro renewals fell within 4Q26, with most of the benefit flowing through FY27. IKE has also built its own proprietary AI operating system, rolled out across the organisation with training partner Section AI, with the CFO guiding R&D as a share of revenue to track materially lower over time on AI-led efficiencies, from 54% in FY25 (expensed and capitalised) to our forecasts of 41% in FY26 and 27% by FY30.