IKE - IKE GPS Group

[Left Field]

Yep not impressed by revenue growth (ie lack of) .... also not impressed being blocked from viewing the webinar.

Was anything interesting said in the update?

[Greekwatchdog]

Yep not impressed by revenue growth (ie lack of) .... also not impressed being blocked from viewing the webinar.

Was anything interesting said in the update?

I couldnt get on either, but market seems to have liked it since meeting began.

[Left Field]

Thanks GWD......I'll email IKE to let them know.

Anyway nice to see the SP endorsement so far today.

[Left Field]

I couldnt get on either, but market seems to have liked it since meeting began.

I've had this response from NWR who ran the seminar....

"There is currently an issue with Zoom where some users are receiving "403 forbidden" errors, which may explain why you were unable to join.

Please see here for a replay of the webinar:"  https://youtu.be/PRaliO_pkMw

[Greekwatchdog]

I've had this response from NWR who ran the seminar....

"There is currently an issue with Zoom where some users are receiving "403 forbidden" errors, which may explain why you were unable to join.

Please see here for a replay of the webinar:"  https://youtu.be/PRaliO_pkMw

Thanks Left Field

[Left Field]

Strong trading of IKE on ASX today..... approximately 3 x's NZX volumes with a high of $AU 1.00 or approx  $NZ $1.14

Aus analysts seemed impressed on the webinar's Q & A session.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars review

While ikeGPS's (IKE) 2Q26 update highlighted a short-term moderation in top-line growth, margin strength continued, and a robust growth outlook was reiterated. Notably, the new PolePilot product, launched in September 2025, represents a meaningful opportunity for IKE to increase Subscription ARR (we estimate >+10%). Group gross margin showed further improvement, reaching 75.4% in the quarter, up +75bp quarter-on-quarter, supported by product mix and cost control.

The underlying Subscription business saw solid customer growth and continued product development. Management reiterated that two upcoming customer council-backed modules are on track, with FY26 guidance for +35% Subscription revenue growth and run-rate EBITDA breakeven in 2H maintained. While total revenue softened sequentially on 1Q26 (-1% quarter-on-quarter), driven by Platform Transactions and Hardware segment weakness, IKE remains well positioned to take advantage of structural tailwinds from US grid modernisation. We make modest cuts to near-term Transactional revenues but lift our Subscription estimates. Our blended spot valuation rises +4cps to NZ$1.16.

What's changed?
Spot valuation: We lift our spot valuation +3% to NZ$1.16, given the launch of PolePilot and an uplift in margin assumptions.
Subscription growth remains solid, new product to support ARR growth
Platform Subscriptions delivered NZ$4.7m of revenue in 2Q26 (representing 73% of total), +12% quarter-on-quarter and +35% half-on-half, driven by continued strength in IKE Office Pro and PoleForeman. Segment gross margin rose +50bp sequentially to 92.5% in 2Q26, with ARPU up +9%, reflecting higher-value customer adds. Seat licences lifted +11% quarter-on-quarter to 9,283, while total customers rose +3% to 423. Solid subscription growth was underpinned by momentum in PoleForeman, with IKE now expecting the product to reach ~NZ$10m in ARR by year-end FY26. FY26 guidance for +35% subscription revenue growth was maintained, with 1H26 revenue of NZ$8.8m (+35% vs 1H25) tracking in line. This will be helped by the launch of PolePilot, an AI-automated add-on now embedded as a compulsory subscription feature for existing customers. Early pricing, we estimate, has lifted per-seat pricing by more than +10%, providing a clear tailwind to recurring revenue growth.

Transaction revenues soften on near-term uncertainty
Platform Transactions had a poor period. 1H26 revenues fell -32% half-on-half, as US fibre customers reduced spending amid funding uncertainty under the Republican administration, with both volumes (100k vs 160k) and price per transaction (-6%) down on 1H25. Gross margin fell to 17% in 1H26 from 37% in 1H25. IKE anticipates a recovery 'over the medium term'.

Product roadmap and funding underpin outlook
IKE's NZ$34m cash balance provides ample room for the development of the two customer council-backed software modules and other AI automation projects. While the company reported 'strong progress' on the first module, our expectations for initial revenues in FY28 remain unchanged. We expect further investment in sales and marketing to support scale and accelerate delivery timetables.

Earnings revisions
Following IKE's 1H26 performance update, we lift our Subscription Platform revenue forecast for 2H26 and beyond, reflecting the launch of PolePilot. We anticipate PolePilot, launched into IKE Office Pro in September 2025, could deliver a >+10% uplift in annualised Subscription revenue. The product launched at a price of ~US$200 per seat per annum, with compulsory uptake for all IKE Office Pro users. We recalibrate our FY26 Platform Transactions revenue to reflect 1H26 softness and limited 2H26 visibility. We now expect a year-on-year decline for Transactions in FY26 (previously a modest uplift), with a return to growth, albeit at a slower rate, in FY27/FY28. We lift our full-year Subscription Platform gross margin by +2.5pp to 92.5%, near our long-run 93.0% margin assumption, reflecting operational leverage and solid cost control. Our FY26 Hardware and Other gross margin lifts +6.0pp to 74%, now our long-run estimate, as the segment shifts more to a service model rather than traditional hardware. We make minor upward revisions to our sales and marketing expense and other opex forecasts in FY27 and FY28 on increased spend related to the launch of two customer council products currently under development, and confirmation on the results call that IKE wants to reinvest to go faster.

[Left Field]

My fears regarding IKE's execution of planned Software upgrades have been unfounded....Clearly the product improvements driven by IKE's 'university' client training and feedback initiative are working very well.

As one analyst noted, IKE's independently assessed NPS score of 91% was one of the highest customer satisfaction scores he has ever seen.

Short term low revenue growth caused by the USA administration's call to slow fibre roll out etc in favour of Musks satellites was concerning. Talk about putting all your eggs in one risky basket! The current shut down of US Govt and funding perhaps another concern, however it could work in IKES's favour as it gives IKE more time to refine and add value to its products &  services.

Onwards and upwards.

[Left Field]

Crikey, hit a 12 month high of $1.14 this afternoon.....being pushed higher by the ASX it seems.

Nice endorsement.

ps the following from Racuurtle on Hot Copper FWIW

"Some of my webinar takeaways:
Strongest quarter ever for subscription revenue - source of growth was spread out amongst customers rather than certain big wins
Opex flat despite growth.
PoleForeman still going strong and being standardised
Transaction revenue down due to fibre optic companies having to rebid for work - but will rebound at an uncertain date (not optimal but not a red flag; i'd be much more concerned about platform subscription growth concerns)

Growth will come from:
Upselling current customers (20% penetrated ..not expecting full 100% of course)
New logo wins
New AI product expected to trial in about a year from now - additional subscription pricing once introduced. They are working out pricing still...if it is priced at $200 per seat that results in a few extra mil of revenue per annum pretty fast if adopted by existing customers.

I believe that we are looking at a real winner here in the medium-long term here. This business has a much better model compared to a few years ago. The margins are much higher now than then, customers appear quite sticky and content, leadership is credible (look at WTC today) and continued growth appears intact. I think patience is still required for maiden and growing NPAT before it is truly noticed and the big gains are made by early investors."

[Minimoke]

Happy holder here. Bought in at $0.92. As typically happens SP plummeted so I bought several more tranches at $0.45. Didn't put anything into the capital raise and SP now at $1.16.

They seem to be a company that keeps growing and delivering.

It may be getting a bit over cooked at the moment but that takeover offer at $1.00 seems like ancient history.

Im wondering when they are going to announce moving into other countries markets. The USA has been a very fertile proving ground

[Minimoke]

and 250,000 shares crossing at close at $1.18. Whats not to like about today!

Edit. Lets make that 300,000

[Greekwatchdog]

Closed $1.08 on ASX.

Last Price / Today's Change
$1.080  +$0.155 (16.756%)
Volume - 752,784
Bid / Offer Range
$1.050 - $1.150

Interesting to see how this opens on NZX tomorrow morning.

[Left Field]

Closed $1.08 on ASX.

Interesting to see how this opens on NZX tomorrow morning.

Open at $NZ 1.21..... not bad eh?

[Greekwatchdog]

Large cross on NZX,

Be interesting open on ASX

[Greekwatchdog]

Large cross on NZX,

Be interesting open on ASX

$1.15 on ASX. Prices being supported by good volume.

What are we missing?