GNE - Genesis Energy

[Plata]

$16B - $4.7B = $11.3B / $1.75B = 6.46 years to reach cost parity.  From this point, arbitrage of pennies makes it feasible

I guess with such great financials we can expect to promptly see multiple pension funds offering to build it and make the big bucks. We can both pull numbers out of the air all we like but I don't see the point in trying to forecast the potential arbitrage opportunity for a 2000 MW plant in a 6000 MW market for the next 10-100 years. I don't think Onslow will always be a stupid idea, I just think it is a stupid idea for now (i.e. it is unlikely to be economic in the next 5 years, why start construction now?)

[winner (n)]

forget all this stuff and DRILL DRILL DRILL...

well anyway ... there is hope apparently...

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/26/tech/ai-climate-solutions/index.html

Or DIG DIG DIG the black stuff ...Reg Dev Fund could be well spent

[winner (n)]

The Genesis of the future is now a very different investment than the Genesis of today," 

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/GNE/422667/408594.pdf

Long version
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/GNE/422667/408595.pdf

[winner (n)]

Beside all the good environment stuff is this going to make shareholders richer

[winner (n)]

Beside all the good environment stuff is this going to make shareholders richer

Should have read to the end

As a consequence, total FY24 dividends have been guided at 14.0 cents per share. The Company will aim to maintain dividends in real terms and grow where appropriate.

Jeez, big cut in divie

Share price stating with a 1 soon

[Ricky Bobby]

Buy side is starting to come back... I guess they needed to do something with Kupe not being around forever?. To move the share price they need to invest in the future?.. am a bit gutted re divided cut... easier than a capital float?

[kiwi2007]

At 230c then 14c = 6.07 % dividend yield, fully imputed and likely to rise over the years. Competes well with GNE bonds which you can buy for an non imputed yield of 6.5%'ish.

[LoungeLizard]

At 230c then 14c = 6.07 % dividend yield, fully imputed and likely to rise over the years. Competes well with GNE bonds which you can buy for an non imputed yield of 6.5%'ish.

Yeah, not the end of the world is it? Shareholders can't have it both ways - maintain a juicy dividend whilst completely re-orientating the business towards a more sustainable future. Doing nothing whilst technology is changing all around you isn't going to work - just ask SKY shareholders!

[winner (n)]

Week closes at 232

Spooky if price did fall to my model value ...today 210/215

Dividend falling from 17.60 to 14 ...model update says if yield reverted to about average $1.85/$1.90 is on the cards

The 'spread' between gne yield and 10 year Govt has never been so small .....if price stays around $2.30 it would be a sign that punters seeing GNE as less 'riskier' (from an investment point of view) now than it has ever been in the past.

Todays update I would say that is not the case

[Basil]

I predicted a big dividend cut and sure enough...

I've heard the whole dividends will grow in line with this, that and the other before. Hand me a Tui.

No saying full imputation or not.

Very glad I sold out.

[winner (n)]

I predicted a big dividend cut and sure enough...

I've heard the whole dividends will grow in line with this, that and the other before. Hand me a Tui.

No saying full imputation or not.

Very glad I sold out.

Yes Basil ...you have talked about the risks and how the dividend prob wasn't sustainable....and so it turned out to be.

And this 'aim to maintain dividends in real terms and grow where appropriate.'is just talk ......can't imagine all the plans will actually go as planned (cost esp) .......and history not on their side as divie growth since listing been  ~1% pa.

Like you all I can see share price downside from here .....but one day when price seems more realistic could be a good buy again.

But no doubt those who bought in at IPO will still be happy even though facing a pay cut

[Basil]

They promised the exact same thing with dividends when they listed, as I am sure you can recall mate

They should have said we really mean it this time eh

[snapiti]

Mr Basil brush you sure have been questioning there ability to maintain divi.......can't believe I got the opportunity to bail at $2.36 this afternoon, which is about break even including DRP shares.
Can see GNE being dropped from many divi portfolios as the current yield on offer does not support current SP.
Shall revisit under $2

[LoungeLizard]

I'll stick my neck out here and say that I don't see the SP getting anywhere near $2. If the news was so bad, we'd have seen a slide today, but the SP ended up not budging a cent. I really don't see Institutions bailing as they think long term and a return of 6% in the meantime is acceptable. $2.31 is the 12 month low, and it may be seen as a buy at those levels. Will be interesting to see how rating agencies view it.

[Shareguy]

Yes the divi has been cut. I think some were expecting a lot worse. Still the largest in the sector according to GNE presentation. Makes sense to fund renewables and battery at Huntly. Big focus on costs.

They state EBITDAF is expected to be around $500m in FY25 and in the mid-high $500 millions between FY26 and FY28. Operating Expenditure is forecast to be lower than current levels by FY28. Stay-in-Business capital expenditure is expected to be around $70 million per annum for FY25 to FY27.

Would like to no more on who and where the biomass is coming from.  Turbine 5 possibly on hydrogen is interesting.

I think it's going to be well received.