GNE - Genesis Energy

[Basil]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/500965/genesis-energy-working-with-small-businesses-to-move-away-from-fossil-fuels

[arekaywhy]

This is why we need an unlike button

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/500965/genesis-energy-working-with-small-businesses-to-move-away-from-fossil-fuels

[Basil]

Makes you wonder why they don't just stick to their knitting eh.  The generation and retailing of electricity.  Also makes me wonder how many other staff and resources they use pursuing other woke ESG initiatives.  Hopefully most of them will get culled with the removal of 200 staff.  Plenty of dead and useless old wood in this Government department, opps sorry, listed Govt controlled company.

[Plata]

https://www.genesisenergy.co.nz/about/news/genesis-and-nzgif-to-help-industry-switch-from-fossil-fuels

GNE will own and maintain the heat pump, which was financed at least 50% by NZGIF. One would presume that means this nursery will be a GNE customer for the foreseeable future with their giant heat pump pulling somewhere in the order of 200 KW periodically throughout the day. Seems alright to me.

[kiwi2007]

Capital Change Notice Relating to Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Genesis Energy Limited (Genesis) provides the attached capital change notice pursuant to NZX listing
rule 3.13.1.
Additional shares have been issued to correct a processing error. A further 865,290 ordinary shares
have been issued to a major shareholder under Genesis' Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP), dated 14
February 2018, in respect of the 2023 Final Dividend.

Overseas shareholder?

Anyway, didn't help the price. Maybe they sold them straight into the market ;o)

[winner (n)]

Week closes at 232

Spooky if price did fall to my model value ...today 210/215

[Basil]

Week closes at 232

Spooky if price did fall to my model value ...today 210/215

I presume your model is based on the assumption the dividend stay's the same ?  What if it doesn't?

[winner (n)]

I presume your model is based on the assumption the dividend stay's the same ?  What if it doesn't?

Dividend down .... Expected share price down

But bond rates falling to 2% would save the day .....cool eh

[Mos]

Very hard to invest in a commercial enterprise majority owned by the Government.

[Shareguy]

Craig's analyst who used to work for Genesis has after all these years decided that he has been wrong, and has added a 20 percent discount to their target price in latest note.

In this note we update our valuation methodology for GNE to include its historical trading discount vs. our DCF valuation. We think it is likely to continue trading on this discount without a clear transition away from its thermal assets. GNE will play a critical role in providing NZ's future energy security needs over the medium-term but we think the market is ignoring the long-term portfolio transition that we include in our DCF

Included in GNE's TP, we overlay a c.20% discount to its DCF spot valuation, representing the average discount it trades on compared to its peer groups EV/EBTIDA multiple (CEN/MEL/MCY.

Disappointed to say the least that after all these years he suddenly says the discount is warranted. Neutral $2.39 TP

Disc. Have sold over half my holding for a number of reasons.

[winner (n)]

Very hard to invest in a commercial enterprise majority owned by the Government.

No shareguy .....that guru analyst from Craig's is still right ...just the market is wrong ......stupid market.

Suppose could apply to many punters own thinking .......keep saying  XYZ is worth more but market doesn't see it that way

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Hey shareguy, have u invested back into other energy stocks/ providers or something different? Have got small amount of these as diversification in the portfolio.

[Shareguy]

Hey shareguy, have u invested back into other energy stocks/ providers or something different? Have got small amount of these as diversification in the portfolio.

No already have long term holdings in CEN and MCY.  Needed funds to pay bills and am also looking at adding to existing position and adding to Discovery funds.. Still holding GNE but my conviction is not as strong as to risk/reward hence the sale.

I note Jarden are still bullish on GNE holding target price at over $3 and some say Jarden are the best.

[xafalcon]

Craig's analyst who used to work for Genesis has after all these years decided that he has been wrong, and has added a 20 percent discount to their target price in latest note.

In this note we update our valuation methodology for GNE to include its historical trading discount vs. our DCF valuation. We think it is likely to continue trading on this discount without a clear transition away from its thermal assets. GNE will play a critical role in providing NZ's future energy security needs over the medium-term but we think the market is ignoring the long-term portfolio transition that we include in our DCF

Included in GNE's TP, we overlay a c.20% discount to its DCF spot valuation, representing the average discount it trades on compared to its peer groups EV/EBTIDA multiple (CEN/MEL/MCY.

Disappointed to say the least that after all these years he suddenly says the discount is warranted. Neutral $2.39 TP

Disc. Have sold over half my holding for a number of reasons.

IMO, it is irrelevant what ANY analyst says about share prices. It is the market that decides what the SP is on any given day

You say for years Craig's had a higher valuation on GNE. Did that increase the SP? No

Now that Craig's have lowered their valuation, will that affect SP? I don't think so. All it shows me is that Craig's have decided to skew their valuation based on a perceived historical relationship between SP and DCF. Will this difference continue in the future? Or is it skewed by current circumstances?

Remember, these analysts are like weather forecasters. Using imperfect models to simulate a dynamic situation. But unlike the weather, the sharemarket has a large psychological component that simply isn't rational and therefore can't be modelled

[Crackity]

Remember, these analysts are like weather forecasters. Using imperfect models to simulate a dynamic situation. But unlike the weather, the sharemarket has a large psychological component that simply isn't rational and therefore can't be modelled

NZ analysts tell you yesterdays weather and even then don't always get it right...

Arie Dekker I rate - the rest nah