IFT - Infratil

[LoungeLizard]

The SP surge continues. Me thinks that the death of IFT may have been exaggerated...

[Left Field]

The SP surge continues. Me thinks that the death of IFT may have been exaggerated...

Welcome back LL.

Death of data centres also a tab exaggerated methinks.

[LoungeLizard]

Welcome back LL.

Death of data centres also a tab exaggerated methinks.

Cheers. Been in Bali for a bit of R&R. Back in the mix now. Seems like non-holders still predicting IFT's demise whilst long term-holders like you and I know that there's always going to be the odd bump in the road, but that IFT is still one of the safest - if not the safest - stocks on the exchange. 

[BlackPeter]

The SP surge continues. Me thinks that the death of IFT may have been exaggerated...

Welcome back LL.

Death of data centres also a tab exaggerated methinks.

Oh dear - looks sounds like you guys/gals moving in rather morbid bubbles?

Just wondering who talked about the "death of IFT" or "death of datacentres"? Did you make this up yourself?

Quite unhealthy fantasies to develop.

The only thing I remember is people mentioning on this thread that IFT is currently quite dear on its fundamentals, and that the demand for datacenters might rise slower as some of the IFT fans seem to hope for.

Does not sound like "death" to me, but sure, for anybody who mortgaged the house to buy IFT shares, the stakes might be rather high. Hope that's not you gals. Still - no reason to jump out of the window, I hope.

[BlackPeter]

Cheers. Been in Bali for a bit of R&R. Back in the mix now. Seems like non-holders still predicting IFT's demise whilst long term-holders like you and I know that there's always going to be the odd bump in the road, but that IFT is still one of the safest - if not the safest - stocks on the exchange. 

Clearly - coming back from Bali you would know about "bumps in the road". Jalan rusak is an important road sign over there ; Sounds though, your stay didn't help to sharpen your appreciation of risks. Quite dangerous lack, considering the traffic they feature (though yes, they have so many vehicles, that moving in slow queues maybe is lower risk). Still - glad you survived the traffic and water and food (Bali-belly). Welcomke back!

[LoungeLizard]

Oh dear - looks sounds like you guys/gals moving in rather morbid bubbles?

Just wondering who talked about the "death of IFT" or "death of datacentres"? Did you make this up yourself?

Quite unhealthy fantasies to develop.

The only thing I remember is people mentioning on this thread that IFT is currently quite dear on its fundamentals, and that the demand for datacenters might rise slower as some of the IFT fans seem to hope for.

Does not sound like "death" to me, but sure, for anybody who mortgaged the house to buy IFT shares, the stakes might be rather high. Hope that's not you gals. Still - no reason to jump out of the window, I hope.

Sigh. Nothing changes. More revisionist nonsense. Look at your postings on this site and the other for...I don't know... years. You've not exactly been a cheerleader. And the latest crumb of negativity around datacentres has been seized upon as if it's a "I told you so" moment. Which it clearly isn't. Still keep banging the drum BP - a stopped clock is right twice a day I guess.

[BlackPeter]

Sigh. Nothing changes. More revisionist nonsense. Look at your postings on this site and the other for...I don't know... years. You've not exactly been a cheerleader. And the latest crumb of negativity around datacentres has been seized upon as if it's a "I told you so" moment. Which it clearly isn't. Still keep banging the drum BP - a stopped clock is right twice a day I guess.

Oh dear - maybe your trip to Bali was not as relaxing as you hoped? Not sure, what causes your grumpyness - Bali Belly after all?

Know the story of the turkey? He got fed day after day from a friendly human being, very concerned about his well being. After 900 days the turkey clearly knew that humans are nothing but friendly providers and given his long experience he was safely able to predict many more good days. Ah yes, and then Thanks Giving day approached. 

BTW: In case you need a good book to read for your next Bali-Belly: "The Black Swan" written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an interesting read for economists, statisticians as well as for anybody who thinks that a linear extrapolation of some random datatrend is all they need to predict the future.

[Left Field]

Interesting to compare HGH and IFT eh BP. 

Of course as BP repeatedly claims.... "no one can predict the future,"........however IMO it's relatively easy to see where the wind is blowing and where resulting investment tail winds align...... you just need to be open minded..... and patient.

Speaking of grumpiness BP..... is there any truth in the rumour that you are invested in HGH? Surely not?

[LoungeLizard]

Oh dear - maybe your trip to Bali was not as relaxing as you hoped? Not sure, what causes your grumpyness - Bali Belly after all?

Know the story of the turkey? He got fed day after day from a friendly human being, very concerned about his well being. After 900 days the turkey clearly knew that humans are nothing but friendly providers and given his long experience he was safely able to predict many more good days. Ah yes, and then Thanks Giving day approached. 

BTW: In case you need a good book to read for your next Bali-Belly: "The Black Swan" written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an interesting read for economists, statisticians as well as for anybody who thinks that a linear extrapolation of some random datatrend is all they need to predict the future.

I'm very relaxed. How about you?

Anyone can construct an argument NOT to invest in any stock, on any exchange. Any negative event - any bump in the road- can fuel the indecision until it becomes paralysis. Best for those who sensitive to all the black swan theories and gloom and doom, to stick to funds. I do both.
IFT has, and continues to be, my best investment in the last ten years. My average price is laughably low and I take profits from time to time, when things surge a bit too much. Other times I buy. I'm already a $1 up on my purchases from a month ago. I would rather listen to the predictions and concerns of those that actively buy stocks, including, IFT, than non-holders who perennially snipe from the outside, even when history has proved them patently wrong.

[LoungeLizard]

Speaking of grumpiness BP..... is there any truth in the rumour that you are invested in HGH?

I take little satisfaction in saying that I was one of the very few on this site that warned that Jeff's foray into Australia would end in tears. Despite all the arguments around low PE compared to peers etc etc, the house of cards did in fact fall. Some learnt quick and got out. Others didn't. I wonder who they were?

[Basil]

Matt Peek, a pretty smart guy, used to work alongside Julian Cook at UBS back in the day.  He had this to say about Infratil in their recent quarterly newsletter.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450556/attachment/442132/450556-442132.pdf
I note they hold a 13.6% position and added a bit during weakness in the quarter.

Disc: No direct position in Infratil but hold quite a few KFL shares and the new KFLWI warrants. 

[BlackPeter]

I'm very relaxed. How about you?

Anyone can construct an argument NOT to invest in any stock, on any exchange. Any negative event - any bump in the road- can fuel the indecision until it becomes paralysis. Best for those who sensitive to all the black swan theories and gloom and doom, to stick to funds. I do both.
IFT has, and continues to be, my best investment in the last ten years. My average price is laughably low and I take profits from time to time, when things surge a bit too much. Other times I buy. I'm already a $1 up on my purchases from a month ago. I would rather listen to the predictions and concerns of those that actively buy stocks, including, IFT, than non-holders who perennially snipe from the outside, even when history has proved them patently wrong.

Quite pathetic post.

So, whats your argument? I don't hold IFT (which is true) and therefore I am not qualified to point out risks? Hmm.

Apart from this being obviously absolute non-sense, funny you see yourself entitled to swamp threads of shares you don't hold with negative comments (check out e.g. WHS ...). Not that I disagree with these comments, but I tend to assess arguments on their merit rather than on the holder status of their poster.

But if we ignore for a moment your beating up of the messenger - do you have any credible investment thesis for IFT? Sure, you tell us that it worked well for you the last 10 years (and yes, the SP did rise during that time with an average CAGR of 14% - Pretty good). As we all know, what went well for 10 years will go well for eternity (well - NO).

If there is anything investors can learn from history, then it is that in the longterm ernings growth and SP growth align.

Earnings growth over the last 10 years (I got that averaged from Excel, including their one off speculation wins), was negative 8.5%. Ouch.

Well, maybe I am just a coward, but I prefer to watch the realignment of EPS and SP growth for this fund from the sidelines, but each to their own.

Good luck, and I hope your day goes well enough that you will be able to find in future sensible investment cases and arguments instead of wasting your and our time in rubbishing and attacking other posters who happen to disagree with the linear extrapolations you seem to trust on as investment case for your beloved stocks.

[LoungeLizard]

Quite pathetic post.

So, whats your argument? I don't hold IFT (which is true) and therefore I am not qualified to point out risks? Hmm.

Apart from this being obviously absolute non-sense, funny you see yourself entitled to swamp threads of shares you don't hold with negative comments (check out e.g. WHS ...). Not that I disagree with these comments, but I tend to assess arguments on their merit rather than on the holder status of their poster.

But if we ignore for a moment your beating up of the messenger - do you have any credible investment thesis for IFT? Sure, you tell us that it worked well for you the last 10 years (and yes, the SP did rise during that time with an average CAGR of 14% - Pretty good). As we all know, what went well for 10 years will go well for eternity (well - NO).

If there is anything investors can learn from history, then it is that in the longterm ernings growth and SP growth align.

Earnings growth over the last 10 years (I got that averaged from Excel, including their one off speculation wins), was negative 8.5%. Ouch.

Well, maybe I am just a coward, but I prefer to watch the realignment of EPS and SP growth for this fund from the sidelines, but each to their own.

Good luck, and I hope your day goes well enough that you will be able to find in future sensible investment cases and arguments instead of wasting your and our time in rubbishing and attacking other posters who happen to disagree with the linear extrapolations you seem to trust on as investment case for your beloved stocks.

My point is that you are obviously blindsided when it comes to share trading. You have fixed views and anyone who decided to invest in a stock that you don't, you feel obligated to tell them that they are wrong - regardless of whether they are or not. I don't need to go over the long term growth of IFT again, the graph speaks volume. I (and others) have presented arguments for IFT, time and again, so you obviously haven't been keeping up. Maybe it is as simple as the fact that you have non-buyers regret and want to convince yourself (and others) that IFT will eventually go into decline. Well, good luck with that.

I post on shares that I have maybe held at some point - HGH, WHS etc - as cautionary tales for others, but not to the same degree as yourself, who spends hours telling the world what shares you don't invest in (and perhaps never have) and why, and deriding those that do. I guess if you've got nothing better to do, then it fills in the time. or maybe it's just ego. Either way it's tiresome. Rein it in would be be my advice.

[LoungeLizard]

I was looking at the latest KFL Nav report and noted that IFT is Kingfishers second biggest stock, behind F&P. The other top three are Mainfreight, Summerset and Auckland Airport. All up these top five "quality growing NZ companies" (their words) account for 62% of their portfolio. All of these companies have high PE's, and low yield, and therefore would seem to be unattractive using those metrics alone . And yet a team of professional fund managers, with a pretty good track record, have them as the backbone of their investments. I find that interesting and re-assuring.

[Basil]

SUM PE 9.5 for FY25 and 8.5 for FY26  https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SUMMERSET-GROUP-HOLDINGS--10089438/
MFT 23 and 21 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAINFREIGHT-LIMITED-6492059/finances/

I was quite impressed with Matt Peek at last year's annual meeting.  Wish he had of followed through on my suggestion of buying TRA @ $4 at the time for his fund though, (up ~ 50% since then).  Fortunately, I have a truckload of TRA already so it doesn't really matter.

I hold KFL for the diversification it offers and sometimes like today, it trades on a pretty decent discount to NTA, with NTA up 7 cents in the last week but share price only up 2 cents.  Then there's the warrants which I often find attractive. 

IFT have been one of their most successful holdings over the years.  I have no idea which way from here for IFT but I do understand holders feeling encouraged seeing management write sizeable cheques to top up their holdings.