IFT - Infratil

[Dolcile]

What do we make of all the inside buying?

[BlackPeter]

Good question.

I guess it is clearly a signal they want the world to see.

But no matter, whether they personally believe the share is cheap - the real quesiton is - do you think they can see the future better than other mortals?

Do they know both Trumps and Xi's coming moves in the ongoing tradewar, and do they understand the impact of each of these moves on the services the companies in their fund are offering?

Do they know whether the altright will prevail in the US with "drill baby drill" and making the life difficult for renewables, or whether this nightmare will be over in a handful of months or years?

Do they really know the need for datacentres over the next say 5 years? Do they know whether AI will rocket up or just end as the next big flop?

If you think they have the answers to all these questions, than it might be a buy signal.

If you think however, that they are mortals (who can't predict the future) as well, then I would interpret the recent buying as an attempt to stop the downtrend. Please, please Mr. Market - buy IFT, its sooo cheap ... even insiders do buy.

[mike2023]

Do you consider the volume of buying by IFT directors insignificant?
Morrison yes, huge monies going there and they can keep it primed but if you look at turnover the inside buys are not enough to do more than daily movements.

Go to a roadshow. Their full of beans and looking well ahead, looking for what's next, which is what they do well.
Still have the airport, other assets.

[Left Field]

What do we make of all the inside buying?

Maybe that Directors and Morrison's see real value....... up to $15.00 value on 'special' at the moment.

Of course some posters here won't agree.....so it's a game of who should know best.

[mike2023]

Has anyone considered whether having data centers built outside of the USA could currently be an advantage? Tariff and component for starters.

[Basil]

Hard to know Mike, the situation is so fluid.  Maybe services could come in for tariffs too?  Who knows what the petulant child in the US will do next?

Craigs reckon IFT trading under fair value NTA.  KFL trading at $1.22, current NTA by my estimate $1. 332....bought a few more KFL today and they have plenty of IFT.  Other than that, and a few more SMI and Tower, happy to remain with a large cash allocation acting as a shock absorber in the portfolio soaking up some of the extreme bumps in the journey. 2025 could be quite a challenging year in the markets.

[Left Field]

Has anyone considered whether having data centers built outside of the USA could currently be an advantage? Tariff and component for starters.

'Data sovereignty' has been a concern for some time.

Think about it.......the USA is rapidly losing its 'trusted nation' status....  many nations are concerned about having their sensitive data stored/transfered outside their own borders.

And its not just recent USA fears, recently we witnessed Chinese 'research' and warships hovering above submerged data cables in the
Tasman Sea. A Russian tanker that dragged its anchor in Baltic Sea 'arrested' in Germany, British warships shadowing Russian vessels in Nth Sea  etc.

So yes trusted secure data/cloud storage or data sovereignty within your own borders is what makes sense. 

CDC is in the box seat in this respect in the South Pacific.

Have you watched the CDC interview link that Basil posted a few weeks ago? (Post # 306 above.)

[Red Baron]

Hard to know Mike, the situation is so fluid.  Maybe services could come in for tariffs too?  Who knows what the petulant child in the US will do next?

From p12 "Christchurch Star" April 10th 2025
Zome vould zay eet eez "Chinese Communist Party Propaganda" vrom "He Ying" CCP Consul General in Christchurch
but....

"The US has long reaped enormous benefits from global trade.  The "so-called" 'reciprocal tariffs' have left countries worldwide confused and drawn widespread criticism from experts and media, who argue that the methodology behind these tariffs is baseless and 'completely fabricated'.    Differences in tariffs among nations stem fundamentally from comparative advantages across industries in different countries.  While the US runs a trade deficit in goods, it achieved a $300 billion trade surplus in services across 2024."

I vonder how long eet vill take trading countries outside of ze USA to put a tariff on zhat 'zervice zector'?

RB

[BlackPeter]

Do you consider the volume of buying by IFT directors insignificant?
Morrison yes, huge monies going there and they can keep it primed but if you look at turnover the inside buys are not enough to do more than daily movements.

Go to a roadshow. Their full of beans and looking well ahead, looking for what's next, which is what they do well.
Still have the airport, other assets.

As indicated - it does not matter whether the directors are convinvced or just virtue signalling. Fact is, they don't know more about how long the world will get stuck in the current crisis than anybody else.

And make no mistake - Trump is bad for the economy, for travel and still worse for renewable energy. Obviously he has little to do with anything related to intelligence, but the jury is as well still out on the development of AI and their real need of additional datacenters.

Buying into IFT at this stage is speculating on a stock which is fundamentally anyway already pretty dear (i.e. huge growth assumptiuons baked in). Is it sensible? - well, you be the judge.

Been several times on their roadshows. Yes, they are run professionally, but if you want to know how much professionals know about the future, than just check how often our star economists and analysts are right with their future predictions. No point in awestruck listening to them, get a statistically relevant long term track record of their predictions. Here is a hint: If we are talking yes/no decisons, they are roughly as good as flipping a coin. Problem is just, reality is multidimensional and much more complex than that.

Ah yes, and just looking at IFT - it would not be the first time for them to get it wrong either. How much money did they make with NZ Bus? Remember the European airports they bought for millions and sold for a Dollar? - and re Wellington airport - sure, it is important infrastructure, but not sure I expect any outstanding returns from that investment. They don't even have the bonus of Auckland which offers a real estate gamble.

But don't get me wrong - I am not saying that they will turn belly up. They won't. They are just an investment fund, and at the end their shareprice will reflect the time value of these investments. I am just saying that they are at the moment priced for perfection ... and not sure I expect the (for their industries relevant) near and midtem political and economical futures matching this expectation, and I am saying that nobody currently can foresee how AI and its data centre need will develop.

Sure - you can get predictions two on a dime, but predictions are cheap. What you need would be predictions which turn true, but don't we all?

Anyway - your money, your luck. If you believe in the divine capabilities of the directors, go for it ... and hey - you always might be lucky.

[Left Field]

More news from IFT & CDC in this update......

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/450174

 
 CDC is entering a period of significant opportunity. It expects its earnings to double over the next two years, with approximately 80% of that growth already contracted. The business is on track to meet its FY25 EBITDAF guidance of A$320-A$330 million and formal FY26 guidance will be provided at Infratil's May results.
 Several trends underpin this positive outlook:
 • Long-term customer contracts with low risk - WALE of ~30 years (including options).
 • Strong capital base, backed by Infratil, Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation (CSC) and Australia's sovereign wealth fund, the Future Fund, plus low-cost debt sourced from diversified global markets.
 • Rising operational leverage as campuses scale and systems improve.

This is interesting.....

One of the most important developments affecting the global AI landscape is the "AI Diffusion Framework" introduced in the final days of the Biden Administration in the U.S. This framework restricts the export of the most advanced AI chipsets and supporting technology like NVIDIA's GPUs to certain countries.

 Under the Framework, the world has been divided into three tiers.

 • Tier 1 (unrestricted): Only five countries in the Asia-Pacific region; Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are allowed to receive unrestricted shipments of advanced U.S. AI hardware.
 • Tier 2 (limited access): Includes Singapore, India, Malaysia, and others; where each country's capacity is limited under current rules.
 • Tier 3 (no access): Includes China and other restricted jurisdictions.

 This means the global supply of AI hardware now has a much narrower set of countries it can be deployed in. Among them, Australia (& NZ) stands out due to:
 • Available land and power: Compared to Japan, Taiwan, or South Korea, Australia has fewer geographic constraints and more reliable transmission infrastructure.
 • Stable and growing renewable energy mix: Australia is already at ~40% renewables and doesn't face the rolling blackouts or capacity crises affecting other markets, with data centres account for only ~1% of the grid consumption.
 • Political and regulatory certainty: As a Five Eyes partner with strong cybersecurity and privacy frameworks, Australia gives global tech companies confidence that their investments are safe.


Of course as BP repeatedly claims.... "no one can predict the future,"........however it's relatively easy to see where the wind is blowing and where resulting investment tail winds align...... you just need to be open minded..... and patient.

CEO Jason Boyes  still buying IFT shares..... he now holds over 2 mill ...... https://www.nzx.com/announcements/450280

[Cod]

IFT might actually do what I thought it might do and return to mid line, swipe me thats a first.
You cannot view this attachment.

[Left Field]

This from Kiora on the other channel.......(IFT well positioned IMO.)

"Capacity Constraints

Amazon: cloud slowdown disappoints investors

"Slowdown in cloud growth
But while the general public knows Amazon as an e-commerce giant, investors are mainly focused on its cloud division, AWS (Amazon Web Services). This is because it accounts for most of the company's profitability and is also where growth is strongest. And it is this point that has disappointed investors: AWS's growth slowed in the last quarter. The division's revenue grew by 17%, compared with 19% in the Q4 2024. Management attributes this slowdown in growth to capacity constraints."

"it contrasts with the results published by Microsoft on Wednesday evening. The Redmond-based company saw growth in its cloud division (Azure) accelerate again in the first quarter, to +35% year-on-year.

However, while AWS accounted for only 19% of revenue in the first quarter, 63% of Amazon's operating profit came from this division."

Great to see IFT SP climbing again. Those who purchased or topped up during the recent lows will be smiling.

[BlackPeter]

This from Kiora on the other channel.......(IFT well positioned IMO.)

"Capacity Constraints

Amazon: cloud slowdown disappoints investors

"Slowdown in cloud growth
But while the general public knows Amazon as an e-commerce giant, investors are mainly focused on its cloud division, AWS (Amazon Web Services). This is because it accounts for most of the company's profitability and is also where growth is strongest. And it is this point that has disappointed investors: AWS's growth slowed in the last quarter. The division's revenue grew by 17%, compared with 19% in the Q4 2024. Management attributes this slowdown in growth to capacity constraints."

"it contrasts with the results published by Microsoft on Wednesday evening. The Redmond-based company saw growth in its cloud division (Azure) accelerate again in the first quarter, to +35% year-on-year.

However, while AWS accounted for only 19% of revenue in the first quarter, 63% of Amazon's operating profit came from this division."

Great to see IFT SP climbing again. Those who purchased or topped up during the recent lows will be smiling.

Well, good luck with that. Sure - it is possible that the SP breaks at some stage through this big fat red line (MA200) still hovering above the SP, but it is by no means sure.

And lets face it - IFT is quite dear on fundamentals (pathetic PE), and they have a bonusstrategy which is quite unaligned with typical economic setback times (a proper bear every 7 to 10 years or so). Which means directors can cream it 6 to 9 years (in this example) just by taking more and more risks - and when the big reset comes, then its just too bad for shareholders, isn't it? 

Better wait with counting your chicken ...

[Left Field]

Well, good luck with that. Sure - it is possible that the SP breaks at some stage through this big fat red line (MA200) still hovering above the SP, but it is by no means sure.

And lets face it - IFT is quite dear on fundamentals (pathetic PE), and they have a bonusstrategy which is quite unaligned with typical economic setback times (a proper bear every 7 to 10 years or so). Which means directors can cream it 6 to 9 years (in this example) just by taking more and more risks - and when the big reset comes, then its just too bad for shareholders, isn't it? 

Better wait with counting your chicken ...

Interesting to compare HGH and IFT eh BP. 

Of course as BP repeatedly claims.... "no one can predict the future,"........however IMO it's relatively easy to see where the wind is blowing and where resulting investment tail winds align...... you just need to be open minded..... and patient.

[Left Field]

Two news releases bode well for IFT and possibly explain recent upwards SP movement

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/451129

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02943491-2A1594605&v=7bc42bd11d853ed5e8c28f2ffcd6a069ee5cd6b4