IFT - Infratil

[LoungeLizard]

Most investors would regard IFT as a long term hold - perhaps selling down/topping up in times like these, depending on one's risk appetite. But it's still a very good bet regardless of the current "noise" surrounding renewables in the US.

I really don't see Trump and his pro fossil fuel agenda as being a medium term threat - even he can't hold back the tide. Renweables accounted for 93% of all new capacity in the US last year, even as fossil fuel production soared. There are certainly challenges ahead, but there's a great deal of push-back against Trmps anti-renewables rhetoric at State level. 132 mayors and local officials from 39 states – 23 of which voted for Trump in 2024 – sent a letter to Congress demanding they preserve all renewable-energy tax credits available to state and local government. And solar power is particularly big in Republican Southern states. One-quarter of new capacity was built in Texas. Second place was Florida, another Republican stronghold.

So yeah, challenges for sure, and IFT might not reach it's target of 15% shareholder net growth this year, but in the medium-long term it's still a very strong hold in my view.

[BlackPeter]

Most investors would regard IT as a long term hold - perhaps selling down/topping up in times like these, depending on one's risk appetite. But Ift is still a very good bet regardless of the current "noise" surrounding renewables in the US.

I really don't see Trump and his pro fossil fuel agenda as being a medium term threat - even he can't hold back the tide. Renweables accounted for 93% of all new capacity in the US last year, even as fossil fuel production soared. There are certainly challenges ahead, but there's a great deal of push-back against Trmps anti-renewables rhetoric at State level. 132 mayors and local officials from 39 states – 23 of which voted for Trump in 2024 – sent a letter to Congress demanding they preserve all renewable-energy tax credits available to state and local government. And solar power is particularly big in Republican Southern states. One-quarter of new capacity was built in Texas. Second place was Florida, another Republican stronghold.

So yeah, challenges for sure, and IFT might not reach it's target of 15% shareholder net growth this year, but in the medium-long term it's still a very strong hold in my view.

Sure - as strong as Spark ;

[LoungeLizard]

Sure - as strong as Spark ;

One word - conflation.

[Swala]

Sure - as strong as Spark ;

He can't help himself.

[Left Field]

Soothing words for holders in IFT's March newsletter

https://infratil.com/news/infratil-newsletter-march-2025/

The first quarter of the new calendar year has been marked by uncertainty and volatility across global markets. In recent weeks, equity markets have experienced heightened fluctuations, driven by escalating trade tensions and the introduction of new tariffs. These developments have raised investor concerns about inflation and economic slowdown, leading to significant declines in most major indices. Additionally, investors are closely monitoring policy changes and technological advancements.

Our share price has not been immune to the sell-offs impacting global markets. We also acknowledge that some of the recent share price weakness may reflect broader industry uncertainty around key areas of our portfolio - New Zealand's economic outlook (One NZ), hyperscale demand for AI deployments (CDC), and US renewables (Longroad Energy).

However, in times of heightened uncertainty, quality becomes an important differentiator. Infratil's strategy has always been built on backing high-quality assets, great management teams who are invested in their businesses, and structural tailwinds that drive sustainable, long-term growth.......

.....We have received numerous investor inquiries regarding the outlook for data centre operators, of course given our largest investment, CDC.

We recently announced that we exercised pre-emption rights to acquire an additional 1.58% stake in CDC for ~A$216 million, alongside Future Fund, which is acquiring 10.46%. Importantly, the transaction price of A$13.7 billion (100% equity) was set in an auction process involving only third-parties, reinforcing the strong demand across private markets for this sector and CDC. Based on the transaction price the implied value of Infratil's investment is A$6.6 billion, a 34% premium to the last independent valuation of A$4.9 billion as at 31 December 2024....... etc etc....

Businesss as usual it seems.

Disc. I've added more on recent lows.

[LoungeLizard]

Soothing words for holders in IFT's March newsletter

https://infratil.com/news/infratil-newsletter-march-2025/

The first quarter of the new calendar year has been marked by uncertainty and volatility across global markets. In recent weeks, equity markets have experienced heightened fluctuations, driven by escalating trade tensions and the introduction of new tariffs. These developments have raised investor concerns about inflation and economic slowdown, leading to significant declines in most major indices. Additionally, investors are closely monitoring policy changes and technological advancements.

Our share price has not been immune to the sell-offs impacting global markets. We also acknowledge that some of the recent share price weakness may reflect broader industry uncertainty around key areas of our portfolio - New Zealand's economic outlook (One NZ), hyperscale demand for AI deployments (CDC), and US renewables (Longroad Energy).

However, in times of heightened uncertainty, quality becomes an important differentiator. Infratil's strategy has always been built on backing high-quality assets, great management teams who are invested in their businesses, and structural tailwinds that drive sustainable, long-term growth.......

.....We have received numerous investor inquiries regarding the outlook for data centre operators, of course given our largest investment, CDC.

We recently announced that we exercised pre-emption rights to acquire an additional 1.58% stake in CDC for ~A$216 million, alongside Future Fund, which is acquiring 10.46%. Importantly, the transaction price of A$13.7 billion (100% equity) was set in an auction process involving only third-parties, reinforcing the strong demand across private markets for this sector and CDC. Based on the transaction price the implied value of Infratil's investment is A$6.6 billion, a 34% premium to the last independent valuation of A$4.9 billion as at 31 December 2024....... etc etc....

Businesss as usual it seems.

Disc. I've added more on recent lows.

Yes, strong demand equals increased valuation. Business fundamentals look as strong as ever, just global market and uncertainty around some elements of portfolio has weighed down the SP. I've done the same LF - bought more last week. Set and (mostly) forget.

[Basil]

Holders might enjoy reading this.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison/inside-sydneys-a17b-supercomputing-operation-co-owned-by-infratil/JZERI4QYLVDNDMMGXQQ644KXME/
Disc: No direct position.  Small indirect position through Kingfish.

[Swala]

Holders might enjoy reading this.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison/inside-sydneys-a17b-supercomputing-operation-co-owned-by-infratil/JZERI4QYLVDNDMMGXQQ644KXME/
Disc: No direct position.  Small indirect position through Kingfish.


Thanks for posting Beagle. As a long term holder of Infratil I always love listening to Greg talk about his baby. A great story.

[Left Field]

Thanks for posting Basil...excellent interview.

IFT's and CDC's Data Centre story is why some of us have been buying more IFT on recent lows ( I appreciate you have exposure via Kingfish.)

IFT 'well positioned' with data centres, undersea cables, mobile data (One NZ) and renewable energy.

ps Morrison's CEO recently buying approximately 277,000  IFT shares..... a further good sign on top of IFT CEO's additional purchases.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/448456/attachment/439708/448456-439708.pdf

[Left Field]

Another IFT Director increasing his holding.....

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/448845/attachment/440124/448845-440124.pdf

[Basil]

Gosh, a lot of talk on CNBC by all sorts of experts today reviewing this first quarter how sentiment has changed since 1 January.  Many wondering if A.I. and all related services especially data centers, are simply in a bubble?   The Mag 7 has become the Lag 7. Hope they're wrong...got a few of these through my Kingfish stake.

[Cod]

Gosh, a lot of talk on CNBC by all sorts of experts today reviewing this first quarter how sentiment has changed since 1 January.  Many wondering if A.I. and all related services especially data centers, are simply in a bubble?  The Mag 7 has become the Lag 7. Hope they're wrong...got a few of these through my Kingfish stake.

I believe the AI product Deepseek (China) that does a lot of it's processing on the device rather than using data centre's stream has created the perception that data centre storage could be at capacity and that we could be already overbuilt. It is however in my view just a perception.

[Left Field]

I believe the AI product Deepseek (China) that does a lot of it's processing on the device rather than using data centre's stream has created the perception that data centre storage could be at capacity and that we could be already overbuilt. It is however in my view just a perception.

See Basil's post #306 above......the video link talks about strong leases, (30 yrs for new builds,) AAA clients with a strategic geographic spread that would seem to provide IFT with short term protection. 

Longer term IFT is well placed to switch its resources into more fertile investments.... if required.

Looking fwd to IFT's next update.

[Left Field]

Further to the above post #312, Infratil's valuation of its CDC assets has now been upgraded by $A 2,115 million.

Plus

"The growth forecast underpinning CDC's build capacity to FY2034 remained largely unchanged from December 2024, with the exception of the completion of extensions to two of CDC's data centres in Auckland...."


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/449583

[BlackPeter]

Further to the above post #312, Infratil's valuation of its CDC assets has been upgraded by $A 2,115 million.

Plus

"The growth forecast underpinning CDC's build capacity to FY2034 remained largely unchanged from December 2024, with the exception of the completion of extensions to two of CDC's data centres in Auckland. This increased CDC's operational capacity by a further 16MW to 318MW and continues to demonstrate CDC's strong track record of delivering projects on time and to budget."


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/449583

As a result of the transaction announcement in February, the primary valuation methodology applied by the independent valuer at 31 March 2025 was adjusted from a Discounted Cash Flow ('DCF') approach to a Historical Transaction approach. After being provided details of the outcome and nature of the sale process conducted by CSC, the valuer confirmed their view that the transaction met all criteria to be considered fair market value and subsequently adopted A$13,701 million as the mid-point of its independent valuation.

Sounds like a really tough negotiation with the valuer. I wonder who paid them?

Ah well, isn't this amazing? They had to change their valuation method to further increase the papervalue of their data centres. That's the way to generate fat management bonusses. Just a shame for the poor sod who will sit at the end of the day on assetts valued for high management bonusses. They will hope the greater fool strategy works in perpetuity. Well, it always does until the bubble bursts.

Wondering whether this trick will pull IFT out of the doldrums? - They passed the cross of death already some months ago.