SPK - Spark NZ

[seaweed]

If that's your average price then you may do well out of SPK in the next few weeks/months. Me, I've a got a bit to go yet before I can take a deep breath. Hopefully the divvy won't get cut too much in the meantime. 

My av price is higher about 2.80 so this has turned into a long play but did top up and got extra 31,000 between 2.01 and 2.07 to get ave price down. So back to sleep on this one for now.

[Cod]

Looks like price is being squeezed between all-time low resistance and decending channel may exit channel and rise to $3.50 ish between AVWAP ATH and ATL, if they can flog off the data centers, but price might just linger here at $1.80-2.30 reflecting its legacy telecoms status.
You cannot view this attachment.

[LoungeLizard]

Spark announces strategic network partnership with Nokia:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/451792

[BlackPeter]

Spark announces strategic network partnership with Nokia:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/451792

Nokia? Another blast from the past. They used to be great in the time Telecom NZ could still milk their customers thanks to a telecommunication monopoly, but today?

Interesting history, anyway - Nokia produced mining equipment in the early 20th century, they made great toilet paper in the 1960íes, and in the early years of this century they have been known for producing quite good cellphones (well, bricks in hindsight, but still, not bad at the time). Just wondering, though what they are doing these days Spark could benefit from? I guess sure, the Networking division they bought in did benefit from the US bullying everyone into banning Huawei network elements, but whether benefitting from one Autocrat banning the technology of the other autocrat is a long term winning strategy? Not so sure.

But who knows, maybe Nokia benefits from Kiwi Ingenuity and runs the future Gen 6 on a number 8 wire ?

Or otherwise they both might be aging dinosaurs comforting each other ... who knows?

[entrep]

My first thought too - Nokia, what a dinosaur. Absolutely no idea what they are up to now

[LoungeLizard]

Yep, Nokia are only a NZ$47 billion company. What a dinosaur indeed.

[BlackPeter]

Yep, Nokia are only a NZ$47 billion company. What a dinosaur indeed.

Maybe you don't understand the nature of a dinosaur?

They used to be really big and then they went extinct due to a failure to adapt to environmental changes ;

[Basil]

This is interesting.  Nokia shares traded at ~ 6 times their current price 25 years ago !!  Similar to Spark's terrible long term performance.  Just as well the dividends have slowed the share price decline of Spark...at least for now...but with dividends set to be reviewed later this year, for how much longer...  The TA on this looks absolutely terrible as noted by Cod in post #421 above.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NOK/nokia/stock-price-history#google_vignette

[BlackPeter]

This is interesting.  Nokia shares traded at ~ 6 times their current price 25 years ago !!  Similar to Spark's terrible long term performance.  Just as well the dividends have slowed the share price decline of Spark...at least for now...but with dividends set to be reviewed later this year, for how much longer...  The TA on this looks absolutely terrible as noted by Cod in post #421 above.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NOK/nokia/stock-price-history#google_vignette

Well spotted - pretty shocking chart.

You cannot view this attachment.

Wherever the SP might break out of the symmetric triangle (starting ~2010) - it looks like most of the energy left the dino already ... good match for Spark.

[Red Baron]

As a 'var veteran' I veel I am qualified to zay a vew on thees thread are in line vor a 'VC' gong.   But not that VC.

I mean 'VC' standing vor 'Vhite Cane.'   Dished out especially vor zhose who cannot discern a zhare bargain, even eef eet eez ztaring them, directly een ze vace.

RB

[Basil]

Red Barron. Please feel free to translate these words into whatever language you like.
Value Trap.
Dividend Trap.
To help with your understanding and translation I offer you this guide.  https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/how-to-spot-a-dividend-value-trap/
Even if you look 2 years out to FY27's numbers analysts are only talking eps of 16 cps, well down on the 10 year average.  There is no growth and none forecast.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SPARK-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6492600/finances/ Put a no growth PE of 8.5, (using this famous Ben Graham valuation principle for no growth companies has saved me a 101 truckloads of anguish over the decades), on 16 cps and fair value is only $1.36.  Oh dear...

[Red Baron]

Red Barron. Please feel free to translate these words into whatever language you like.
Value Trap.
Dividend Trap.
To help with your understanding and translation I offer you this guide.  https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/how-to-spot-a-dividend-value-trap/
Even if you look 2 years out to FY27's numbers analysts are only talking eps of 16 cps, well down on the 10 year average.  There is no growth and none forecast.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SPARK-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6492600/finances/ Put a no growth PE of 8.5, (using this famous Ben Graham valuation principle for no growth companies has saved me a 101 truckloads of anguish over the decades), on 16 cps and fair value is only $1.36.  Oh dear...

Ze precipitous zhare price vall at Spark vas largely a 'vashion statement'.

Investors decided zhat zpeculation of ze future earnings at 'data centres' (promoted by Infratil) carried more veight zhan ze present day earnings of Spark (even though Spark eez also going ze data centre vay - go vigure!)  Brainless vorced index zelling explains ze reason for ze zharp Spark zhare price decline.

Now earnings:, ve are een a recession - I get zhat.   But you have to ask ze question. 
"Vhere are Spark being creamed by their opposition een a vay zhat vill lead to a permanent loss of compeititiveness and earnings decline?"
And ze answer eez, zhey are not.

Maybe zhose big business and government contracts vill not come back in FY2026 or even FY2027.   But ze need to digitise ze economy has not gone away.  I cannot zay vhen the zun vill zhine again on Spark.   But I can bet zhat it vill.  And in ze meantime I am being paid handsomely to vait.    And datacentres?  5G applications?  Plenty of potential new growth potential een ze vings!

RB

P.S.  Analyst views vrom your link:  5 buy, 1 outperform. 3 hold.  Consesus zhare price target $2.96.  Enough zaid!

 

[LoungeLizard]

Maybe you don't understand the nature of a dinosaur?

They used to be really big and then they went extinct due to a failure to adapt to environmental changes ;

Nokia is extinct? When did that happen?

[Basil]

P.S.  Analyst views vrom your link:  5 buy, 1 outperform. 3 hold.  Consesus zhare price target $2.96.  Enough zaid!

The same analysts that on average had a price target of over $4 a few months ago when the shares were ~ $3.   They're just following the market down.

[Red Baron]

The same analysts that on average had a price target of over $4 a few months ago when the shares were ~ $3.   They're just following the market down.

During ze early days of ze 'Great Var' (1914 to 2025 zo far), I zpecialised in 'vollowing theengs down', and indeed provided zome assistance een thees process.  Zhey generally crashed een a rural French paddock.    However not all downvard trends end een thees vay.    A zertain Sopwith Camel pilot who must not be mentioned by name eescaped vor example.   Zometimes it takes a bright 'Spark' (you zee vhat I deed there) to 'read ze zkies' and be able to spot ze coming change een trajectory before eet becomes obvious to all.

RB