HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner (n)]

That big green candle last week is more impressive than the big red candle Nvida produced the other day

Interesting where both go from here

[BlackPeter]

Depends on your perspective. 30 Day MA for those with a shorter term outlook, 200 MA for those who want to see a longer term trend. A positive 30 day MA can be the start of a long term trend, or it can just be a blip. At the moment HGH is good for trading and short term gains, but as Buzz says, longer term investors will "hurry up and wait."

Look - there are many different trading / investing methods, and more than one of them is successful.
If TA works for you, this is great. Does not mean though that many longer term investors would or should use it. Actually - if many would use it, it would stall the market (see below).

Most "longer term investors" I do know don't care at all about TA. They will check whether an asset appears to be good value for the given price (using whatever criteria they use, but they won't be TA related), and buy if the price is right. Never heard Warren Buffett talking about MA30 or MA200. Have you?

While TA has certainly its merits (as one of many trading tools in the box) - it is crucial for momentum "investors" (who are basically misnamed day traders), it is useful for normal traders - and sure, it might give long term investors some additional clues when to go in (and potentially when to go out).

Your MA's are basically a gauge for the populous view of the crowd (called market) what a stocks is worth. And sure - sometimes the crowd is right, but often it is wrong. Same as the determination of a lynch jury in the Wild West, which clearly was important (though irrelevant, because predictable) for the poor sod who got hanged, but gave no indication at all whether the accused was guilty - TA just tells you how the (greed and fear driven) crowd feels at a certain moment in time, not whether a stock is over or undervalued.

Apart from that - ever thought about what happens if everybody "smarts up" and follows your instructions for longer term investors? Right - all these smart people will refrain from buying undervalued assets in a downtrend and the market just dries up.

The only way to stop a downtrend is when "smart money" and longer term investors see value which robotic TA followers won't - and buy into a downtrend. Are you saying that none of the longer term investors you know are smart?

What TA disciples are doing is basically following the herd. Absolutely - a valid strategy for a few (though not foolproof either) - and works for sheep, but clearly not the strategy for all "longer term investors".

Same as every herd needs a leader (who can't follow the herd, otherwise they just procrastinate) - does the market need leaders (i.e. people who don't follow the herd and its TA tracks), but make their own decisions. And yes, these are the successful longer term investors who shape the market;

[LoungeLizard]

Look - there are many different trading / investing methods, and more than one of them is successful.
If TA works for you, this is great. Does not mean though that many longer term investors would or should use it. Actually - if many would use it, it would stall the market (see below).

Most "longer term investors" I do know don't care at all about TA. They will check whether an asset appears to be good value for the given price (using whatever criteria they use, but they won't be TA related), and buy if the price is right. Never heard Warren Buffett talking about MA30 or MA200. Have you?

While TA has certainly its merits (as one of many trading tools in the box) - it is crucial for momentum "investors" (who are basically misnamed day traders), it is useful for normal traders - and sure, it might give long term investors some additional clues when to go in (and potentially when to go out).

Your TA's are basically a gauge for the populous view of the crowd (called market) what a stocks is worth. And sure - sometimes the crowd is right, but often it is wrong. Same as the determination of a lynch jury in the Wild West, which clearly was important (though irrelevant, because predictable) for the poor sod who got hanged, but gave no indication at all whether the accused was guilty - TA just tells you how the (greed and fear driven) crowd feels at a certain moment in time, not whether a stock is over or undervalued.

Apart from that - ever thought about what happens if everybody "smarts up" and follows your instructions for longer term investors? Right - all these smart people will refrain from buying undervalued assets in a downtrend and the market just dries up.

The only way to stop a downtrend is when "smart money" and longer term investors see value which robotic TA followers won't - and buy into a downtrend. Are you saying that none of the longer term investors you know are smart?

What TA disciples are doing is basically following the herd. Absolutely - a valid strategy for a few (though not foolproof either) - and works for sheep, but clearly not the strategy for all "longer term investors".

Same as every herd needs a leader (who can't follow the herd, otherwise they just procrastinate) - does the market need leader (i.e. people who don't follow the herd and its TA tracks), but make their own decisions. And yes, these are the successful longer term investors who shape the market;

I'm in agreement with what you say there BP. I'm not a TA expert nor is it a tool that I use much in making my investment decisions. If anything I am more like the typical Buffet style investor looking at the macroeconomic trends and business fundamentals that might hopefully point towards value and growth opportunities.

There are times when the TA looks so terrible that you would either have to be very brave or foolish to go against it, but again that's up to the individuals risk/reward profile. I don't know where you get the idea that I'm saying long term investors are not smart when it comes to HGH. Some are saying that it's far too soon to start pronouncing that the downturn is over, others are saying that this is the exact moment to buy. There's no atypical, generic investor  - everyone chooses their own path. I find it interesting and helpful when opinions - respectively -  diverge about a particular company. Only way to learn. Confirmation bias isn't a great teacher.

[winner (n)]

Depends on your perspective. 30 Day MA for those with a shorter term outlook, 200 MA for those who want to see a longer term trend. A positive 30 day MA can be the start of a long term trend, or it can just be a blip. At the moment HGH is good for trading and short term gains, but as Buzz says, longer term investors will "hurry up and wait."

Trouble with using 200MA to see a longer term trend in place is that one misses out on most of the action

Like 200MA today us 160 .....say 150 in a month .....share price is say 150 then and heck you've missed the first 40 cents of the rise .....30% gone.

[Left Field]

Trouble with using 200MA to see a longer term trend in place is that one misses out on most of the action

Like 200MA today us 160 .....say 150 in a month .....share price is say 150 then and heck you've missed the first 40 cents of the rise .....30% gone.

You're right..... assuming that the HGH SP is now on a continual rise to riches for holders. Assuming no chance of a bounce back. Assuming no cap rise etc etc.

The rampers are right..... Enjoy the moment.

[LoungeLizard]

You're right..... assuming that the HGH SP is now on a continual rise to riches for holders. Assuming no chance of a bounce back. Assuming no cap rise etc etc.

The rampers are right..... Enjoy the moment.

Yep, at the end of the day they are all just lines on a graph trying to project the future from a few points of data. The more data points the more certain the projection, but that means waiting and possibly missing out on the early gains, as Winner said. Horses for courses.

Speaking of which, I kind of liked the slow, dependable Clydesdale that was Heartland 1.0. Old Dobbin was making good progress and was almost certain to get the rider to where he wanted to go. Then Jeff traded Dobbin in for a sleek, young thoroughbred that hasn't yet been broken in. Likely to offer a bumpy ride and may not get you to where you want it to. Worst case scenario - the rider ends up on the ground, face down in a pile of manure...

[winner (n)]

Yep, at the end of the day they are all just lines on a graph trying to project the future from a few points of data. The more data points the more certain the projection, but that means waiting and possibly missing out on the early gains, as Winner said. Horses for courses.

Speaking of which, I kind of liked the slow, dependable Clydesdale that was Heartland 1.0. Old Dobbin was making good progress and was almost certain to get the rider to where he wanted to go. Then Jeff traded Dobbin in for a sleek, young thoroughbred that hasn't yet been broken in. Likely to offer a bumpy ride and may not get you to where you want it to. Worst case scenario - the rider ends up on the ground, face down in a pile of manure...

Our man Greg Tomlinson has a few stallions and mares who breed real fast colts and fillies

http://www.nearcostud.co.nz/

[Basil]

Reverse mortgage book has been growing at a "gangbusters" rate of both sides of the Tesman.
Effective marketing is the key.  Use of an old greying Beagle in their Reverse mortgage guide is cunning.  Maybe time for a new puppy and some other new things is the very subtle message.
https://www.heartland.co.nz/reverse-mortgage/free-insights-guide?utm_source=&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=rmnz-ret-ig-button-jan24&utm_content=rmnz-ret-ig-button-jan24&utm_term=

[Fiordland Moose]

Everything you need to know about the Aussie banking sector in 2 minutes...I'm quite keen for this bloke to be CEO of HGH's australian banking operations.

Skip to 27 seconds in. A classic - enjoy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_3T-Af57Pg

[winner (n)]

KPMG quarterly report on NZ banks says "Net interest margins (Nims) for the sector at December last year stood at an average of 2.34%, an improvement on the 2.1% average recorded in 2022"

Heartland better pull finger and stop theirs declining

[winner (n)]

DRP shares at 1.27 .....that's good ...take cheap DRP shares .....same as buy low sell high

Bit of a down day yesterday with a close at 128

But don't forget thats 13% above recent low ......and there's been another 3.5% from divie ...pretty good

All heading in right direction

[Basil]

Market is always thinking 6-12 months ahead so to be ahead of the market you need to be thinking more than 12 months ahead and as we come into the last quarter of HGH's FY24 year we need to be thinking not so much about what they will do in FY25 but FY26, FY27 and beyond.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HEARTLAND-GROUP-HOLDINGS--47041144/finances/
Average broker eps for FY26 is 18.42 cps, put a normal, (we will be in a different part of the economic cycle by then with lower interest rates), market PE on that of 12-13 and you get a share price of $2.21 - $2.40.

Average broker DPS forecast is 11.83 so that gives 16.43 cps inclusive of imputation credits which is a 12.6% gross yield on $1.30.

I would expect more mid - late single digit eps growth to come in the years after FY26 and the share price and dividends to move in line with that.
No doubt the naysayers will see it differently and frankly, I couldn't care less.  Always happy to back my own nose for a feed because its right 90%+ of the time.

[Fiordland Moose]

Market is always thinking 6-12 months ahead so to be ahead of the market you need to be thinking more than 12 months ahead and as we come into the last quarter of HGH's FY24 year we need to be thinking not so much about what they will do in FY25 but FY26, FY27 and beyond.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HEARTLAND-GROUP-HOLDINGS--47041144/finances/
Average broker eps for FY26 is 18.42 cps, put a normal, (we will be in a different part of the economic cycle by then with lower interest rates), market PE on that of 12-13 and you get a share price of $2.21 - $2.40.

Average broker DPS forecast is 11.83 so that gives 16.43 cps inclusive of imputation credits which is a 12.6% gross yield on $1.30.

I would expect more mid - late single digit eps growth to come in the years after FY26 and the share price and dividends to move in line with that.
No doubt the naysayers will see it differently and frankly, I couldn't care less.  Always happy to back my own nose for a feed because its right 90%+ of the time.

nothing wrong with a bit of near bottom of the cycle / contrarian style investing particularly for cyclicals

always sounds easy to say in retrospect but when you are looking at a share near the bottom of the cycle thats when things metrics will look their worst and human psychology kicks in. It's not often you'll get bottom of the cycle pricing when things have already turned around and the company is reporting growth in profitability again.

From a provision point of view they could be well provisioned enough and if they got back up to historic highs may require only a $15m pre tax / 10.8m post tax adjustment. The scope of operations are already established and operating - challenger is about refinancing their funding costs, growing nim and growing mkt share. Cap raise and possible dilution are the bigger issues as far as I'm concerned - one can position themselves for that - and to a certain extent has been trading cum cap raise for some time.

just got to watch those credit ratings as they come in. business will be increasingly de-risked as they are maintained, but I think fitch may wait a bit to see what happens when challenger is done and the details of a cap raise are clear.

auto warehouse credit rating affirmed last week
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/fitch-affirms-two-tranches-of-heartland-auto-warehouse-2018-1-outlook-stable-06-03-2024

[winner (n)]

Bloody heck ....extended trading today

Guy on other channel says it's rebalance day - HGH will exit the FTSE small cap index today at mkt close

Hope no carnage

[Basil]

always sounds easy to say in retrospect but when you are looking at a share near the bottom of the cycle thats when things metrics will look their worst and human psychology kicks in. It's not often you'll get bottom of the cycle pricing when things have already turned around and the company is reporting growth in profitability again.

"Growth in profitability again" That could happen as early as August 24 when they report and give forward guidance for FY25.

Guy on other channel says it's rebalance day - HGH will exit the FTSE small cap index today at mkt close

Sounds like a potential opportunity to me.