HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[snapiti]

It maybe the case that the extraordinary high cost of living and the speed at which this occurred has put a real strain on many retirees, who's only asset is their home, I believe this has made many consider a reverse mortgage product like heartland offers.....plenty of growth left in this sector with an ever increasing retirement base looking to free up some capital.

[winner (n)]

WE HAVE TAKEOFF

Share price on its way to above $2 again

Over $2 it becomes 'overpriced' and one needs to keep a close eye on the charts to assess when maximum return is likely and SELL

Price/Book preferred multiple for me .....but at end of day it's essentially the same as Basil's peer group multiples monitoring.

FYI average P/B has been about 1.35 ......the recent tops seen share price at about $2.20 and about $2.50 respectively.

Main thing is we are on our way back

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[winner (n)]

With share price taking off goingbto get less DRP shares than we might have expected

Never mind ....one of the few times when DRP shares are worth taking .....unlike those over 2 bucks lol ....or even 170/180 lol

[Fiordland Moose]

WE HAVE TAKEOFF

Share price on its way to above $2 again

Over $2 it becomes 'overpriced' and one needs to keep a close eye on the charts to assess when maximum return is likely and SELL

Price/Book preferred multiple for me .....but at end of day it's essentially the same as Basil's peer group multiples monitoring.

FYI average P/B has been about 1.35 ......the recent tops seen share price at about $2.20 and about $2.50 respectively.

Main thing is we are on our way back

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Those figures adjusted for when the stock went ex div?

I think the best way to look at it as on its P/nta (nta really just calculated as BV less goodwill) as goodwill balances have grown post stockco acquisition and i reckon they overpaid. Whats ur chart look like ex div and on a p/nta basis?

still reckon it'll show how oversold it is - but might reduce the historical top upbounds and potential upside when viewed in that context

[winner (n)]

Those figures adjusted for when the stock went ex div?

I think the best way to look at it as on its P/nta (nta really just calculated as BV less goodwill) as goodwill balances have grown post stockco acquisition and i reckon they overpaid. Whats ur chart look like ex div and on a p/nta basis?

I'll stick with p/b as it's really the direction the line is going in is the key.

And whether they 'overpaid' for StockCo is subjective anyway .... They paid ~$170m for it and booked $140m of goodwill but seem to generating reasonable profits from it .......as you have to say it has some strategic value.

As at June 23 the recoverable amount from selling (calculated as part of impairment testing) was $30m

[LoungeLizard]

Look, this is getting pretty circular...To be clear I am comparing the metrics of HGH which is a well-established bank with those of a peer group in Australia.  I have been doing this very successfully for over a decade and I have already shared both the peer group I use and the close correlation in the metrics. 
If you want to come up with arguments why this shouldn't work, that's your prerogative but I am telling you it works extremely well and has worked for over a decade and is a very useful tool in determining if HGH is seriously undervalued or overvalued. 

I sent you a copy of Jenny Ruth's article. HGH has a dominant market share with its reverse mortgage book in Australia.  It's not some start up minnow.  Its already has about $1.6 Billion in highly profitable and low risk reverse mortgage lending and they are going to back this into Challenger if they get a banking license. 

With or without that approval HGH has a highly successful, well-established banking operation in Australia already and I believe they will grow eps regardless of whether or not the license is approved.  This has never been on cheaper forward metrics at any time, either Heartland 101 or Heartland 102.  Let that sink in or not, I've done my best to help you open both eyes to the opportunity ahead. 

Perhaps we should simply let the share price do the talking now for a while.

Fair enough Basil. I'm not questioning your undoubted skill at analysing the metrics of companies to determine the right time to buy/sell. I just don't, in this case, go along with the peer group comparison. Risk factors, scale of operations, business strategy are entirely different. But, as we have both have said - each to their own. More than one way to turn a profit. I'll watch with interest and see how things turn out. I'm as comfortable watching on, popcorn at hand, as you are with diving in. Enjoy the ride!

[winner (n)]

Fair enough Basil. I'm not questioning your undoubted skill at analysing the metrics of companies to determine the right time to buy/sell. I just don't, in this case, go along with the peer group comparison. Risk factors, scale of operations, business strategy are entirely different. But, as we have both have said - each to their own. More than one way to turn a profit. I'll watch with interest and see how things turn out. I'm as comfortable watching on, popcorn at hand, as you are with diving in. Enjoy the ride!

Hey loungelizard, what you think of my Price/Book chart

Heartland all by itself ...no peer group comparisons or relativities to the market or anything ...just how Heartland has gone over the years

You have to agree sentiment is changing for the good ...and HGH has never been this cheap

[LoungeLizard]

Hey loungelizard, what you think of my Price/Book chart

Heartland all by itself ...no peer group comparisons or relativities to the market or anything ...just how Heartland has gone over the years

You have to agree sentiment is changing for the good ...and HGH has never been this cheap

You're on to it, Winner. Price to book is one of the best indicators of where the SP is - or should be -  in historical terms. Whether there's an upswing developing or not is debatable, but even I can see how one might be encouraged to have a punt at this stage.

 For me, it's just the risk profile of HGH at this point in time. As I've said I am a notoriously risk averse investor - I have the odd "fun" investments (eg PEB - although that hasn't delivered much fun of late!) - but most of my stocks have proven over time that the tortoise tends to beat the hare with less stress. I'm not interested in trying to time the market - although I must admit I did well in following Basils lead on both HLG and TRA.

But here's a case in point - IFT is my biggest holding (30%) and I dived in only 5 years ago at $3.75. It's now $10.58 -getting on to trebling in value in 5 years. It has delivered an after-tax return of 20% per year over the last 10years. My kind of stock.

I was a fan of HGH up until the pivot to OZ changed the risk profile and the cap raise showed a new contempt for the small NZ investor. I took my (reduced) profits and sold at $1.80. Looking at the SP today, I was glad I did. There's now too many variables with the new HGH direction for anyone to really get their head around. It might work or it might not. A lot of it comes down to trust in Jeff which for me is in short supply. He looks like a guy who wants to make a name for himself by taking on the big boys in their backyard, and he wants your funds to do it with. No thanks. At least, not until the dust of the next cap raise has settled.

I hope your predictions come right, Winner - if all goes well then maybe $2 per share in say, 18 months time, might come to pass. But bear in mind that by that stage it will only return it back to the levels it was three years ago. And I don't think anyone doubts that dividends will be cut along the way.

 

[Buzz]

I got all excited seeing folks talking up HGH, but I'd have to say regardless of how it's fundamentals may or may not appear to stack up, there is no TA (or momentum trader) that would touch this for a buy-in right now. The only tiny thing is HGH perked up from oversold on the RSI (weekly chart) but even then on only 15% of average weekly volume. Every other TA signal says 'hurry up and wait'.

https://invst.ly/13wxb5

Good luck, fortune favours the brave, as they as they, but it's not their money is it. 

[winner (n)]

Hey buzz ...... impressive looking candle just week eh.

Looks very bullish to me (not a candle expert) ....definitely not an Abandoned Baby

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[Basil]

It was an abandoned baby so I adopted it lol

[Buzz]

Hey buzz ...... impressive looking candle just week eh.

Looks very bullish to me (not a candle expert) ....definitely not an Abandoned Baby

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Yeah, could just be Basil and you loading up    like who knows, only 15% of weekly volume and against an increasing weekly trend of volume capitulating.

We'll see, I'd never buy a weekly candle which is under every other TA indicator. That's it from me, I'm content to sit back and 'wait'. The Risk/reward right now is too tenuous and doesn't support the recent optimism imho.

[winner (n)]

It was an abandoned baby so I adopted it lol

You such a good soul mate .....possibly there are other abandoned babies looking to be adopted lol

[Basil]

You such a good soul mate .....possibly there are other abandoned babies looking to be adopted lol

Who would be brave enough though to adopt two abandoned babies in one week.

I got all excited seeing folks talking up HGH, but I'd have to say regardless of how it's fundamentals may or may not appear to stack up, there is no TA (or momentum trader) that would touch this for a buy-in right now. The only tiny thing is HGH perked up from oversold on the RSI (weekly chart) but even then on only 15% of average weekly volume. Every other TA signal says 'hurry up and wait'

Maybe you might want to have another look at the chart today because others now seem to want to give baby a cuddle and there's been a clear break above the 30 day moving average at $1.29
 

[LoungeLizard]

Who would be brave enough though to adopt two abandoned babies in one week.
Maybe you might want to have another look at the chart today because others now seem to want to give baby a cuddle and there's been a clear break above the 30 day moving average at $1.29
 

Depends on your perspective. 30 Day MA for those with a shorter term outlook, 200 MA for those who want to see a longer term trend. A positive 30 day MA can be the start of a long term trend, or it can just be a blip. At the moment HGH is good for trading and short term gains, but as Buzz says, longer term investors will "hurry up and wait."