HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[BlackPeter]

The decline and fall of HGH continues. Trading at $1.39 currently - a 23% haircut for those railroaded into the cap raise only 18 months ago. The TA still looks terrible - I see $1.35 or even $1.30 on the horizon. If the divy is cut, or another cap raise is required, then all bets are off as to where the SP goes from there.
 
I also don't like the look of things in the Aussie agricultural sector where HGH has really gone all in. Climate change is going to make things pretty tough for HGH's number one customer - farmers. The big picture doesn't look good at all in my opinion. 

That's a pretty negative view relying on a small (and partially outdated) number of observations.

But first - I don't think that big picture investing becomes better if somebody watches every cent a share drops or rises ... These things don't matter unless you have to sell at such a point) and stop you to look at the big picture.

Looking at the risk you are higlighting - you are right, Australian agriculture looked 6 months ago like a risk when everybody was worried about the impact of El Nino. Funny thing is that farmers are now restocking their paddocks (and many didn't even destock). While El Nino is a reality, it appears it brought in a warmer world as well more humidity. Sure - can all go pearshaped in future, but this is not different to the way it always was (i.e. not a higher or new risk).

You forgot as well their bread and butter business: Reverse Mortgages. As far as I know are they the largest player in this discipline in Australia. Good business to be made - and quite decoupled from what the climate is doing.

Investing is always a rollercoaster ride ... if you make a big fuzz out of every down turn and every rise you loose the view for the important things ... and so far was HGH both a reliable dividend payer and it provided over time as well nice share price appreciation despite some moaners liking to complain about every down and every risk. I think I bought my first shares of them for something like 70 cents (They changed the ticker and I the broker, so too much effort to find the records).

Unless you never invested in HGH - what has changed? The TA is relevant only for traders ... and the weather was always unpredictable ...

[LoungeLizard]

That's a pretty negative view relying on a small (and partially outdated) number of observations.

But first - I don't think that big picture investing becomes better if somebody watches every cent a share drops or rises ... These things don't matter unless you have to sell at such a point) and stop you to look at the big picture.

Looking at the risk you are higlighting - you are right, Australian agriculture looked 6 months ago like a risk when everybody was worried about the impact of El Nino. Funny thing is that farmers are now restocking their paddocks (and many didn't even destock). While El Nino is a reality, it appears it brought in a warmer world as well more humidity. Sure - can all go pearshaped in future, but this is not different to the way it always was (i.e. not a higher or new risk).

You forgot as well their bread and butter business: Reverse Mortgages. As far as I know are they the largest player in this discipline in Australia. Good business to be made - and quite decoupled from what the climate is doing.

Investing is always a rollercoaster ride ... if you make a big fuzz out of every down turn and every rise you loose the view for the important things ... and so far was HGH both a reliable dividend payer and it provided over time as well nice share price appreciation despite some moaners liking to complain about every down and every risk. I think I bought my first shares of them for something like 70 cents (They changed the ticker and I the broker, so too much effort to find the records).

Unless you never invested in HGH - what has changed? The TA is relevant only for traders ... and the weather was always unpredictable ...

I think an 18 month continual downtrend isn't a blip. The hint is in the word "trend." HGH has been out of favour ever since the cap raise - I said at the time that the pivot to OZ was really risky and so it has proved to be  - both with the financial effect and with market sentiment.

Yes, sure things can and turn around but when warning signs appear on the dashboard you can either do something or you can do nothing. I prefer to do something. That isn't trading, it's just being pro-active. I sold out completely and I'm waiting until things get better. But I think they will get worse before they do. Yes, investing is a roller coaster ride, but unlike an actual roller coaster, you can choose to get off it if the ride gets too scary!

[BlackPeter]

I think an 18 month continual downtrend isn't a blip. The hint is in the word "trend." HGH has been out of favour ever since the cap raise - I said at the time that the pivot to OZ was really risky and so it has proved to be  - both with the financial effect and with market sentiment.

Yes, sure things can and turn around but when warning signs appear on the dashboard you can either do something or you can do nothing. I prefer to do something. That isn't trading, it's just being pro-active. I sold out completely and I'm waiting until things get better. But I think they will get worse before they do. Yes, investing is a roller coaster ride, but unlike an actual roller coaster, you can choose to get off it if the ride gets too scary!

No need to defend your actions -  sometimes I get off as well when FA and TA look bad.

And while we all can say with absolute conviction afterwards how sensible this was ... I remember as well the times where I got off when the TA looked bad and the trend turned on me short after.

Sometimes it is sensible, and sometimes it is not ... and the only way to distinguish between the both groups is with the benefit of hindsight.

So yes - we all can get off during the ride, but we always hae to pay a fee and sometimes we need to pay a penalty on top to get back on it.

Try to keep track of all your fees for getting on and off as well as of all your penalties for getting off and not quick enough getting back on again. If you add this up and you still make better money than the indices, than you should keep doing what you do.

Otherwise - maybe not.

Here are some interesting stats  ...

https://tradeciety.com/24-statistics-why-most-traders-lose-money

... but obviously - we all belong to the 1% of traders who are different ;

Anyway - I remember the last long HGH decline, and in that I got off as well (and yes, that did pay off ... I was lucky ). This time I didn't. No big deal in my view - as long as the long term perspective of the company (FA) looks healthy - and so far I think it does.
 

[LoungeLizard]

No need to defend your actions -  sometimes I get off as well when FA and TA look bad.

And while we all can say with absolute conviction afterwards how sensible this was ... I remember as well the times where I got off when the TA looked bad and the trend turned on me short after.

Sometimes it is sensible, and sometimes it is not ... and the only way to distinguish between the both groups is with the benefit of hindsight.

So yes - we all can get off during the ride, but we always hae to pay a fee and sometimes we need to pay a penalty on top to get back on it.

Try to keep track of all your fees for getting on and off as well as of all your penalties for getting off and not quick enough getting back on again. If you add this up and you still make better money than the indices, than you should keep doing what you do.

Otherwise - maybe not.

Here are some interesting stats  ...

https://tradeciety.com/24-statistics-why-most-traders-lose-money

... but obviously - we all belong to the 1% of traders who are different ;

Anyway - I remember the last long HGH decline, and in that I got off as well (and yes, that did pay off ... I was lucky ). This time I didn't. No big deal in my view - as long as the long term perspective of the company (FA) looks healthy - and so far I think it does.
 

Well, that's the thing about fortune telling - we can only be sure we are predicting the future in hindsight. Sort of like having a flashback of a premonition. 

[winner (n)]

HGH share price 2 years hit $2.59

Nearly half that now

50% OFF SALE ....BARGAIN ....BUY BUY BUY

[LoungeLizard]

With a lot of rain farmers on East Coast of Australia  ,farmers will be trying to build up stock numbers.Ideal for StockCo.
HGH's largest sector is Reverse Equity lending which is continuing its strong performance.

Everything I've read about future Aussie weather patterns is the increasing severity of the drought/flood cycle. And average farm incomes are expected to be down by up to 40% this financial year. That can't be good for HGH can it?

[Basil]

HGH share price 2 years hit $2.59

Nearly half that now

50% OFF SALE ....BARGAIN ....BUY BUY BUY

Bit like a 50% off Briscoes sale eh lol....but are you better off shopping at K Mart? 

Craigs reckon 14 cps this year and say @ a PE of 10 its rated outperform at the current level.

Has traded at a PE of 9 times before in a recession when accounts were not thoroughly messed up with dubious extraordinary items.

Jeff has made quite a mess of things with extraordinary items and nor provisioning enough for bad and doubtful motor vehicle loans.  Claims to be proactive in the latest provisioning but the reality is its exactly the opposite, he's reactive and too late under provisioning these matters in a recession.

With all the uncertainty with plans in Australia I see a fair PE as 9, (not 10). 9 x 14 = $1.26.

TA, the downtrend continues.  I'm not surprised and while uncertainty hangs thick in the air regarding half year report numbers next month, the level of dividend, the size of the potential capital raise and whether their Australian plans will get regulatory approval, it's hard to see what the catalyst is for the well-entrenched downtrend to change direction.  Like all downtrends, they will change at some point, and I look forward to seeing evidence on that with the TA.

HGH could be a BUY at some stage this year.

[winner (n)]

Jeff should have known better and took heed of the lessons from others in that proactive provisioning / earnings smoothing always come back to bite you on the bum.

Jack Welch at GE was a master of doing ths stuff  ...until it all turned to custard for them

Need to use the reported npat and this normalised one .....but Jeff's credibility is now such you have to wonder if there are gremlins in the reported npat

[Basil]

Reality is all provisioning is at best, just educated guesswork based on empirical evidence of the past performance of different classes of loans.  If the economy turns to custard like it did in 2023, provisioning is never going to be enough.  The market has been wide awake to this and has been marking down HGH's share price for the last 6 months.  As Jeff has often said, the performance of the bank is tied to the performance of the economy, or words to that effect, therefore its prudent to be well abreast of the fact that the Reserve bank are expecting very anemic economic growth in the next 3 years, (recessionary conditions on a per capita basis if you take all the immigration out).

Agree, its getting bloody hard to know or trust what the real eps is.

We've had one downgrade...just as well downgrades never come in 3's...oh hang on a minute....

[lorraina]

Right time to join the faster growing Australian economy.

[Ricky Bobby]

I heard Greg Tomlinson wants an Aussie bank so he can start buying Aussie wine companies and similar more easily?..

[Teitei]

The usual story playing out with a NZ company expanding into Australia?

When will they ever learn?

[Red Baron]

The usual story playing out with a NZ company expanding into Australia?

When will they ever learn?

Heartland have already zuccessfully eggsbanded eento Australia.   Remember 'Zeniors Vinance' and reverse mortgages?   Vhen a new market gets a taste vor your product, you need to zupply a bigger pie to zatisfy zhat hunger.  And at zome point you need a beegger oven to bake zhat beegger pie.  Zees eez ze challenge, and now 'non zhareholders' are balking at vunding zees 'Challenger'.    Eef you don't like zpendinmg money to make money zhen Heartland eez not vor you, and zhat is vine.   Just leave those who do underztand zee business model to get on vith eet!

And vhy zhould you leesten to my opinion?  Vell I have 'vront line expertise', vhen eet comes to conquering voreign lands!

RB

[winner (n)]

Right time to join the faster growing Australian economy.

Always good playing where the grass is greener

[SCOTTY]

The Red Baron nailed it with his international view. Once he sorts the English language he will be a formidable force on this site