HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Greekwatchdog]

Is the eighth or ninth time you guys have brought this up ?  I've lost count. Not even Warren Buffett gets every call right and certainly you guys don't either. Yeah I was over confident after getting so many previous calls on this correct. 

Thanks Winner. 

And nor do HGH management, but how many times have you crucified them, and how many more times do we read it

[Basil]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HEARTLAND-GROUP-HOLDINGS--47041144/consensus/

The average target price of the three analysts covering HGH is only 99 cents.  I'll leave it at that.

[Greekwatchdog]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HEARTLAND-GROUP-HOLDINGS--47041144/consensus/

The average target price of the three analysts covering HGH is only 99 cents.  I'll leave it at that.

And how many times do you call them out? You only agree with them when it suits you, time and time again

[Basil]

I make my own assessments of the value of every stock I consider investing in.  Sometimes I agree with the analysts and sometimes i don't.   I would think its the same for most professional investors.

[Greekwatchdog]

I make my own assessments of the value of every stock I consider investing in.  Sometimes I agree with the analysts and sometimes i don't.   I would think its the same for most professional investors.

Wrong, our money, make your own call, and I stand by my comment you only do it when you are happy with what they say. You have proven it time and time again and have called them out countless times when you don't agree onw way or the other.

[lorraina]

I can not remember which Buffett book I read it in, but Buffett said if you get 6 out of 10 stocks right you will make money in the market.
I think the secret [which I am still to learn] is to wake up to your mistake early.
Stock guru Jim Slater, who wrote the Zulu Principle, said sell on the first bad/poor/surprise announcement.

[Basil]

Thanks lorriana.  I'm way to hard on myself and expect to get 9 out of 10 right but I am learning to forgive myself for my mistakes.  I don't think there's any harm in debating whether analysts values on stocks seem fair and reasonable or not. 

[Greekwatchdog]

I can not remember which Buffett book I read it in, but Buffett said if you get 6 out of 10 stocks right you will make money in the market.
I think the secret [which I am still to learn] is to wake up to your mistake early.
Stock guru Jim Slater, who wrote the Zulu Principle, said sell of the first bad/poor/surprise announcement.

LOL no one ever gets it right 100%, however you miss the point of all of this..

ZZZZZZZ

[Basil]

Wrong, our money, make your own call,

Its not your or our money as you choose to describe it.  If you choose to share research in a public domain in breech of client terms and conditions without authority from Forsyth Barr, it becomes public information and is open for debate whether you like or not.  If you don't want to share, don't. I do make my own calls and am very content indeed with my market outperformance over the last decade and this financial year is no exception..  I post a lot and contribute a lot.  No, I'm not proud of every single post I've ever made and believe me, you shouldn't be proud of every post you've ever made either, far from it.  There is a famous saying, it goes, thus "Don't waste your time arguing with someone who is committed to misunderstanding you."  You're very highly committed so I'm done.  You have a wonderful evening,

[Forrestdun]

Not everyone will always agree but it is better to have a range of views than just an echo chamber on how great a stock will be. Basil is raising some important points (though maybe slighly more often than some people would like)

[winner (n)]

From my Heartland database I couldn't but help notice how much operating costs (OPEX) have been out of control last few years. Yes, Oz contributed but NZ not blameless.

Hopeless. No wonder profits are where they are

When they seduced punters with a glitzy preso and collected $200m they said OEX to NOI would be reducing to <35%. What a laugh and another broken promise.

If nothing else how they've managed expenses reinforces Basil's view of Heartland

OPEX is Operating Expenses and the % is that of Net Income

Since 2019 incomes grown at 7.8% pa but expenses at 14%

Will things really improve that much from here?

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[Shareguy]

Gosh this threads going the OCA way.  No need for personal attacks what so ever, we are all adults.  A wide range of views is important for balance and its also important to note that changing a view on a stock is expected as more information or changes in circumstances come to hand.

Back to the stock, I can currently see value in Heartland.  Craig's have it as a possible inclusion into their conviction portfolio.  I'm on the fence at this stage about buying in again. Hard to get past the last few years performance. Personally happy to wait until the next result, before I go back in or not.

[winner (n)]

The big re-rate is under way. Punters are happy with Heartland sentiment improving

P/B ratio tells the story

The line enters the yellow zone at $1.14. Only start to think overvalued when it goes above $1.46

Onwards and upwards ....hope no disasters coming our way

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[Basil]

From my Heartland database I couldn't but help notice how much operating costs (OPEX) have been out of control last few years. Yes, Oz contributed but NZ not blameless.

Hopeless. No wonder profits are where they are

When they seduced punters with a glitzy preso and collected $200m they said OEX to NOI would be reducing to <35%. What a laugh and another broken promise.

If nothing else how they've managed expenses reinforces Basil's view of Heartland

OPEX is Operating Expenses and the % is that of Net Income

Since 2019 incomes grown at 7.8% pa but expenses at 14%

Will things really improve that much from here?

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Thank you for your analysis and that image which clearly encapsulates my key concern with HGH.  Costs, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of gross revenue have been rising at an alarming rate over the years, especially in the last year which flies directly in the face of the promised reduction when they were last handing around the begging bowl for their most recent capital raise. 

I said a lot after the last annual meeting in my detailed review and people can go back and read that if they wish, Even though that post was nearly a year ago in late October 2024, I will refrain from repeating much of it for those that have tender ears or who want to live in an echo chamber of positivity.  All I will add is that the very modest forecast cost reduction this year, considering that Heartland Australia is fully operational now is something I find extremely underwhelming to say the very least as is their forecast return on equity.

Greg Tomlinson admitted to me after the meeting last year that a lot of what they have done over the years has been trail and error.  Lots of trails and lots of errors is my interpretation of that.  Another director after the meeting was frank enough to suggest to me that competition is likely to heat up in the reverse mortgage market in Australia in the next two years, and that's happening already.

Leanne Lazurus seemed proud of the fact that bad debtors in their motor vehicle book only cost them a 2% margin.  I was too polite to say that Turners are doing a FAR better job of managing their arrears.  To Lazurus, it seems all about computerized automation of the loan approval process.  What could possibly go wrong...     My caution is that large parts of the economy have been in very deep recession for many years now and that's likely to lead to ongoing severe issues with problematic loans for several years to come. 

The big change for me at the annual meeting last year is I simply don't trust what the board and management say any more.   They have not earned my respect, in fact, the exact opposite.    Good luck.   

[SCOTTY]

The difference between now and previous share price highs is the number of shares on issue. ie. Currently every 1c net dividend will require $9.43m npat.