HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Left Field]

Nice boost to the SP today to reach $0.95c.

TA looking v favourable too. ( Tho' I expect some resistance around $1.00)

SP now up over 11% in less than 1 month  ( future dividend yields an additional bonus.)

Tested $1.00 however as expected there is resistance. I reckon HGH SP needs positive news to justify a firm new base north of $1.00 but JMHO.

[HAWKDOG]

held over $1.00  yesterday - interested to see what it does today.
I'm close to moving out of the red on this one.

[Basil]

I'm sure those who bought a while back at the bottom will be a lot happier than those who paid $2.50 a few years ago.  Nevertheless there is still good reason to be cautious about delinquent and problematic loans.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/company-liquidations-up-26-despite-improving-credit-trends/NAK5UM7C5NAOTCWUYIDSLUOYAQ/

[Left Field]

No one seems to have posted HGH's FY 2025 annual report...... so here it is for reference.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/459734/attachment/453264/459734-453264.pdf

"We currently expect that during the period
to FY2030, investors will see a significant
increase in underlying ROE and underlying
NPAT, driven by a continued focus on capital
efficiency, the retention of Australian profits
by Heartland Bank Australia to fund growth,
continued growth in core products with a bias
to growth in Reverse Mortgages, superior NIM
being maintained, enhanced asset quality,
and a reduced underlying cost-to-income
(CTI) ratio."

[Basil]

People should keep their expectations on improvements very modest in my opinion.  Over the long run this has proven to be a very poorly managed and governed company with little real financial expertise displayed by management in managing lending risks across the business cycle.    The current CTI ratio is absolutely disgraceful and is a direct function of the culture of greed and and entitlement that runs very deep in Heartland.  Does a leopard change its spots...

[Greekwatchdog]

People should keep their expectations on improvements very modest in my opinion.  Over the long run this has proven to be a very poorly managed and governed company with little real financial expertise displayed by vastly overpaid management in managing lending risks across the business cycle. 
Does a leopard change its spots ?

Seriously thats rather rich coming from you considering you were boasting buying @ $1.15 and with $300k more to spend looking so far forward to the $200m in 2028. Take a check here Basil, and consider how badly you screwed up missing all the signals. 

Of course the irony here is that you made alot of money thru some of HGH managements high rish dealing, not once were you complaining about the same management that you are here. 

Times have changed since Greenslade retired. The market needs to gain confidence that the current leadership group are being alot smarter. Thus far they are on the right track, but there is still alot of work to do to prove to the market.

As always time will tell.

[Basil]

Of course the irony here is that you made alot of money thru some of HGH managements high rish dealing, not once were you complaining about the same management that you are here.

Indeed I did but to be fair it was only really after Greenslade left that it became readily apparent he'd been sweeping a lot of problems under the carpet, (and that's putting it very politely.)

Times have changed since Greenslade retired.

His right hand man, (complicit in the inadequate bad debtor provisioning), the CFO, is now the CEO of Heartland Holdings Limited.    Food for thought:  How much has really changed...   

[Greekwatchdog]

Indeed I did but to be fair it was only really after Greenslade left that it became readily apparent he'd been sweeping a lot of problems under the carpet, (and that's putting it very politely.)His right hand man, (complicit in the inadequate bad debtor provisioning), the CFO, is now the CEO of Heartland Holdings Limited.    Food for thought:  How much has really changed...   

Give him a chance Basil, changes take time to in bed back into the business postively.
In the mean time it was great buying pre full year result.

Time will give us our answer, but they have alot to prove to market.

[Left Field]

Indeed I did but to be fair it was only really after Greenslade left that it became readily apparent he'd been sweeping a lot of problems under the carpet, (and that's putting it very politely.)....  How much has really changed...   

To be fair, you purchased & sold in a clear SP downtrend long after the disastrous capital raise around $1.80 (which was ample warning about bad management to many here.)

At the time you purchased (around $1.20) you acknowledged the downtrend.... but said you were a big long term punter ready to punt more (or words to that effect.)

As KW has said so many times, and warned you at this time....."never buy in a downtrend."  You claimed to know better in this instance.

As KW also say's "follow the trend....till the bend in the end."

Now an uptrend is in progress and we'll see how much things have changed.

[Basil]

Its weird how you two forgot to mention I correctly picked the bottom and top of the previous three cycles over the last decade.  Nobody gets every pick dead right. To my mind, If you make a mistake and get out of a position at break even which is what happened after loading up more in the 90's and selling out about $1.05 from memory, that's a satisfactory outcome. It's literally impossible to pick each and every cycle change correctly with perfect timing.

My thoughts on management and the many weaknesses in HGH's business model were shared after the last AGM, and have not changed. I'd go a bit further today and say their management expense ratio is a bloody disgrace. Other better quality companies are preferred.

[winner (n)]

You're incorrigible.

Don't leave this thread as somebody suggested

I'm sure many will still want to hear your wisdom.

You never know but once the current consolidation has settled down and management have proved things back on track you just might be keen enough to put a bit in at say $1.20 and enjoy the ride back to $2.00 plus and the next capital raise before selling out.

Then again the current excitement might turn out to be unwarranted and share price falls back below $1.00 and we could say yes Basil was spot on ...again

[Greekwatchdog]

Another big close @ $1.095. One big trade earlier today.

[LoungeLizard]

I remember being hounded by a certain poster when I had the cheek to suggest that maybe, just maybe, HGH wasn't the sure fire bet that he was repeatedly saying it was. How times have changed!

[Left Field]

Another big close @ $1.095. One big trade earlier today.

A near 30% SP gain in less than 2 months is great and provides a solid base for a long term hold..... however I'll only breathe easy  when/if the next update supports further SP growth.

A growing dividend yield is more icing on the cake.

I remember being hounded by a certain poster when I had the cheek to suggest that maybe, just maybe, HGH wasn't the sure fire bet that he was repeatedly saying it was. How times have changed!

Yes it was in bad taste.

[Basil]

Is the eighth or ninth time you guys have brought this up ?  I've lost count. Not even Warren Buffett gets every call right and certainly you guys don't either. Yeah I was over confident after getting so many previous calls on this correct. 

Thanks Winner.