HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Basil]

Peak cynicism and pessimism by almost everyone.  Almost every man, his dog and cat thinking this will never recover from its deeply oversold level because...wait for it, it's never done that as part of a normal cycle before lol.  I love it and the vast multitude of naysayers confirms to me we're at the low point of this cycle and that I'm on the right track.

[LoungeLizard]

Peak cynicism and pessimism by almost everyone.  I love it and that confirms to me we're at the low point of this cycle and that I'm on the right track.

DO I need to remind you that you said exactly the same thing at the last cap raise? That didn't turn out well...

[Basil]

Metrics are profoundly compelling now.  You want to compare notes on who's correctly called the top and bottom on this before on Heartland 101 or 201.    I stick with peer group metrics comparisons because it works and makes me a LOT of money with this one.

[Buzz]

Peak cynicism and pessimism by almost everyone.  Almost every man, his dog and cat thinking this will never recover from its deeply oversold level because...wait for it, it's never done that as part of a normal cycle before lol.  I love it and the vast multitude of naysayers confirms to me we're at the low point of this cycle and that I'm on the right track.

I'll say this as nicely as I can. For some time, you have said you are focused on the dividends (earnings), a "dividend hound". No one is disputing your prowess as momentum trader, you have made many successful calls and well done for doing so, as well as exiting when the circumstances changed.

However, neither HGH nor OCA are consistent with dividend investing. They are both speculative punts on upside capital valuations, both are severely compromised on market cap. These are the only two that I follow, perhaps there are more that you've promoted?

Have you evolved your investment thesis, or are you reverting to type, momentum trades? Neither of which BTW meet your TA entry criteria. HGH especially, there's nothing that would attract a momentum trade.

[Basil]

Putting it simply, I've evolved my strategy to include special opportunities of very deep value.  When the value is compelling, I'm prepared to buy against the prevailing TA trend.   HGH is not a speculative punt.  It has a long history of solid dividend payments, and I am confident growth in dividends will return in due course in the years ahead.    Challenger was never going to be about growth in eps in the current year or the one immediately thereafter. Good things take time.  On the other hand, speculative punt probably describes OCA quite well lol.  When gambling, I keep the bets quite small.  You get into less trouble that way lol
 

[Left Field]

Jenny Ruth's latest article reckons "Few New Zealand chief executives can claim such a hugely successful track record that Heartland's Jeff Greenslade owns." (Behind paywall so not read by me.)

Winner and Lorianna/Percy have been long term beneficiaries of Jeff's skills, and I recall you both opting in for the last Cap raise. I also seem to remember Winner saying somewhere that his original HGH holding was purchased about the 80c mark?

Perhaps Winner and Percy can share with us what your HGH holding's DCA SP are? Thanks.

[lorraina]

Sorry I do not know what DCA SP is.?
Yes was there in the beginning.
A long time ago.Think I loaded up around 60 cents.
Will support this capital raise.

[Red Baron]

Sorry I do not know what DCA SP is.?

'Debauched Cash Advance' or 'Dollar Cost Average'.  One of ze two?

RB

[winner (n)]

Lorraina ...DCA SP is Dollar Cost Average ...in other other words whst the average cost of your Heartland Shares

For me if I go back to year 1 I have no idea but it will be a big negative number from buying and selling over the time ..generally selling high

The current ones about $1.25/$1.30 but my record keeping is pretty poor

[Whome]

DO I need to remind you that you said exactly the same thing at the last cap raise? That didn't turn out well...

This time it IS different. Last time was clouded with ifs, buts and maybes of whether they would get an aussie banking licence. This time the CR is after having been granted that elusive Oz banking licence.

[Left Field]

Thanks for sharing folks.......yes Winner is correct, I was meaning the Dollar Cost Average of your current holding.... I find it a useful tool.

Lorriana  seems very 'well positioned' with DCA of (say) around .60c and your Div yield is a thing of great beauty. Well done.
Winner .... I guess still a work in progress?

My thinking is that if your  DCA after the current cap raise  is likely to be lower than the diluted market SP........ (say lower than  $1.00 to $1.17) .... then you will be well positioned........ if the Challenger takeover goes well.

[winner (n)]

Thanks for sharing folks.......yes Winner is correct, I was meaning the Dollar Cost Average of your current holding.... I find it a useful tool.

Lorriana  seems very 'well positioned' with DCA of (say) around .60c and your Div yield is a thing of great beauty. Well done.
Winner .... I guess still a work in progress?

My thinking is that if your  DCA after the current cap raise  is likely to be lower than the diluted market SP........ (say around $1.00 to $1.17) .... then you will be well positioned........ if the Challenger takeover goes well.

Current lot may be 'work in progress' but previous forays over the years been very rewarding

I'm sure current 'work in progress' will be just as rewarding

[LoungeLizard]

This time it IS different. Last time was clouded with ifs, buts and maybes of whether they would get an aussie banking licence. This time the CR is after having been granted that elusive Oz banking licence.

I disagree. It's exactly the same set of circumstances. Getting the banking licence is, quite frankly, the easy part. Making it work - maintaining capitalisation, interest margins and costs etc, all against a backdrop of very difficult economic conditions is far harder. And the CEO - the guy who initiated the whole thing - has bailed. 
The other thing is that HGH has done something like 5 or 6 capital raises. They don't seem to be able to self-fund their own operations and they don't seem to want to issue bonds. Each time the SP goes into a tailspin. SO why were people lining up to buy BEFORE this well-flagged CR, knowing that the SP is likely to end up trading below their entry point. Didn't make any sense to me and still doesn't.

[Basil]

Current lot may be 'work in progress' but previous forays over the years been very rewarding

I'm sure current 'work in progress' will be just as rewarding

I could ~ triple my current holding and it would be all free carry from previous profits.  Not sure what that makes my DCA or future yield lol

True that Jeff has put in place a lot of milestones and foundations for growth but sadly, eps growth in recent years has been pretty poor and below the peer group.   Hopefully that changes going forward, but current metrics are priced like it will never grow again, which is clearly ridiculous.

[Waltzing]

All banks will face a demand for more services on line and that for example allow for electronic vaults which you BUY...
The current one banking model serves all is very 1980's and one wonders how long it will be before banks in the pacific farm out there service platforms.
Banks therefore simply become brands over time as the services provide by the finance industries expand.