FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

[Basil]

Not so long ago on a Friday, share price now $26 and its a Friday.

I called it a SELL at over $30 and it did get down as low as $18, not all that far from where I saw the bottom considering the starting point.

[Breezy]

I called it a SELL at over $30 and it did get down as low as $18, not all that far from where I saw the bottom considering the starting point.

You also called it a sell at under $20 and there are other things in that post that have also proven to be wrong, I think sometimes its just better to admit you got it wrong when you seriously downramp a stock over a long period like you have with this one.

[Left Field]

.......I reckon there is potential here for this (FPH)  to go under $10 at some stage in 2023 (28 times FY23 average forecast earnings).
Worse, one wonders how much the E of that PE is under threat with a decade's worth of hardware sold in the last 2 years......

To be fair, some such calls have been very good counter cyclical indicators. lol.

[Breezy]

To be fair, some such calls have been very good counter cyclical indicators. lol.

For sure, wow under $10, never saw that one.

[Basil]

Welcome to the real world where nobody gets every call right but overall, I am very happy with my call quite some time back it was a sell at over $30 and the stock still trades materially lower today.   Sure it didn't get as low as I thought, but please direct me to anyone else who gets every call right and I'll happily invest everything I have with them lol

I'm also very happy with my call on ATM, selling 5 years ago in March 2018 at $13.40 with the proceeds of that sale reinvested very lucratively since then.

[Left Field]

.......I'm also very happy with my call on ATM, selling 5 years ago in March 2018 at $13.40 with the proceeds of that sale reinvested very lucratively since then.

Speaking of ATM, another more recent great counter cyclical call.....

...."I fail to see ANY compelling reason at all to jump back in here given very demanding metrics and no obvious route back to being a high growth company.

I reckon its a case of SELL before the annual result gives the company yet another opportunity to disappoint....."

ATM SP up approx 40% since. ( Just saying.....)

[Basil]

Welcome to the real world where nobody gets every call right but overall, I am very happy with my call quite some time back it was a sell at over $30 and the stock still trades materially lower today.   Sure it didn't get as low as I thought, but please direct me to anyone else who gets every call right and I'll happily invest everything I have with them lol

I'm also very happy with my call on ATM, selling 5 years ago in March 2018 at $13.40 with the proceeds of that sale reinvested very lucratively since then.

Maybe you missed this bit.   I'm very content with my success rate over the last decade.

[Breezy]

Maybe you missed this bit.   I'm very content with my success rate over the last decade.

You certainly are very successful at diversion, thats for sure.

[Breezy]

Quality on Fire today, nearly 50% above its lows, kinda sounds familiar to another certain stock.

[winner (n)]

Quality on Fire today, nearly 50% above its lows, kinda sounds familiar to another certain stock.

Well done buying 'quality' back when it was about 18 bucks

Only half wat back to 36 bucks but will get there some time  .... next year?

Suppose you still accumulating and holding forever .... why not

[Breezy]

As you know, I have been calling this as a $15 stock for quite some time, from back when it was ~ $30 to be exact.  If it weren't for the fact this is N.Z.'s largest leading blue chip stock with widespread institutional holdings supported by ongoing inflows from Kiwisaver contributions I believe it would already be back at that level.

I believe we are going to see a fundamental rerating in the year ahead in a similar vein to how the former market darling ATM was rerated.

Downgrades always comes in 3's (Balance)

For portfolio protection in a bear market this is a great and very liquid stock to short in my opinion.

Wow didn't see this post before but umm.
Fundamental rerating in the year ahead = Nope.
Downgrades always come in 3's = Not always.
Very liquid stock to short for portfolio protection = Definately not unless you wanted a severe burning.

[winner (n)]

Quality per se never comes cheap

Thats why FPH on a forward PE of 60 at the moment

Not that expensive for real blue chip quality

[Breezy]

Quality per se never comes cheap

Thats why FPH on a forward PE of 60 at the moment

Not that expensive for real blue chip quality

Yeah might be pushing the envelope a bit at 60 (35-40 pretty standard for this sector) but see what the next result brings, in the meantime its all about sentiment.

[winner (n)]

Yeah might be pushing the envelope a bit at 60 (35-40 pretty standard for this sector) but see what the next result brings, in the meantime its all about sentiment.

Jeez breezy ......a PE on forecast F23 earnings is a share price of $15.75

Sentiment eh ......punters must be feeling really happy these days then

And instos/fundies probably think you'd got to be in to keep up ...don't wantbthem to miss out eh.

[Shareguy]

Yeah might be pushing the envelope a bit at 60 (35-40 pretty standard for this sector) but see what the next result brings, in the meantime its all about sentiment.

No question a great company but it's a hold for me at these prices.