FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

[winner (n)]

Crikey, don't tell Craigs....... FPH up another 3% today...... into the $24's.

And $25 plus tomorrow

[winner (n)]

If marketscreener anything to go by analysts raised their profit expectations a  bit after half year announcement

F23 forecast is 37 cents /  share ,,,,jeez that puts FPH on a PE of 65 at the moment

Things go to lan F25 eps forecast is 67 cents

That at $24 is a PE of 35 .... but if fph maintains that 65 PE the share price would be nearly $44 in 2025

That's good ...something to look forward to

[Left Field]

Nice to see FPH in the leader board today (briefly.)

Slowly but surely heading towards the next target of $25.

TA  looks auspicious too.

[BlackPeter]

Ari Wald a TA guru doesn't see golden crosses as an absolutely bullish signal for the market

A golden cross is a dead safe indicator that you should have bought some months ago. As far as the future is concerned it is not better than any other trend related indicator ... 60% good, 40% failure.

[Left Field]

$25 breached today......

Onwards & upwards

[Left Field]

Great update today...... my faith in this one restored!!

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405576

Onwards and upwards $25 confirmed....... next step $30  .......( a lot better than Basil's under $10 SP call for FY23!!)

Seems FPH Health's position in the new Covid world is being recognised.

[winner (n)]

Great update today...... my faith in this one restored.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405576

Onwards and upwards $25 confirmed....... next step $30

Seems FPH Health's position in the new Covid world is being recognised.

That's about a 20% increase in profit expectations v consensus

FY eps be about 45 cents now

Pretty cool eh

Could see that 30 bucks soon

[Left Field]

Yep fabulous..... and a lot better than Basil's dire 'sell call" and SP prediction of under $10 in FY 23!!

I prefer your $30 call any day!!

PE still pretty high, but FPH have a record of underselling and overdelivering. Good year ahead for holders.

[KW]

I'll post this here too, but discussion of it is over on the Momentum Investing thread.  If you havent read it, do drop by. 
(note: chart is from the ASX, price is in AU$)

You cannot view this attachment.

[Left Field]

Thanks for the chart KW.

Thanks also for your work on the 'Momentum Investing' thread...... I hadn't been following, but will now!

[winner (n)]

didn't read this on BusinessDesk

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare says FY operating revenue to dip

[winner (n)]

Hey KW - good stuff re momentum

When you say this methinks it is going to happen  - Alternatively, fundamental good news could drive the price through that barrier and beyond, if the company management convinces the "get out evens" to hang in there. 


They'll hang in there

[KW]

Hey KW - good stuff re momentum

When you say this methinks it is going to happen  - Alternatively, fundamental good news could drive the price through that barrier and beyond, if the company management convinces the "get out evens" to hang in there. 


They'll hang in there

It would have been good if they had timed this release to coincide with a push through that resistance level lol.  As such, its a bit early and by the time it gets there some people will have forgotten the good news, or will use the news as confirmation that they should get out now before it all goes to shit again.  There is still a positive covid effect (from China) in their financials which will need to come out, so high chance of the next announcement not being so good.   

[Shareguy]

Craigs latest

Further FY23e upgrades look likely
FPH tends to be conservative when it provides guidance, and particularly in
an environment of extreme volatility in demand such as at present. Friday's
guidance seems no exception, and appears to assume a sharp fall off in
demand from all three drivers noted above over the next two months. While
directionally this view is supported by the most recent data, guidance may
prove to be too conservative, particularly with respect to margins. While FPH
has guided to flat gross margins HoH, we would normally expect gross
margin to expand on the back of the 24-32% HoH lift in revenue the company
has guided to. We therefore lift our FY23e revenue estimate to $1.62bn, and
NPAT to $288m (i.e. 2% and 6% above the top end of guidance, respectively).
Target price +18%, upgrade to Neutral
Friday's upgrade brings forward the previously expected recovery in demand
by about a year, which all else equal drives up our DCF-driven valuation by
9%. In addition, the recent sharp fall in US 10-year bond yields (from 4.0% in
November to 3.5% now) drives up our DCF valuation a further 9%, and overall
our target price increases 18% to $25.78. With FPH shares trading in line with
our revised target price, and 44x fwd earnings, we upgrade to Neutral.

[Breezy]

Ugly numbers.  Many parallels to ATM with heavy stocking pre-pandemic and now sales falling off.
Coincidence that the decline in FPH started within a month of the decline of ATM ?

Ugly numbers is going to lead to analysts recalibrating their long term growth assumptions...10 years hardware sales in 2 years, (gosh have they ever explained it in anywhere near such stark terms before ?)

I can see some serious analysts downgrades coming.  Quick back of the envelope, if they make $90m (mid point of guidance this half and say $95m in 2H that's $185m / 577.3m shares = 32 cps.  Even after this mornings decline at $19.60 they trade at approx 61 times FY23 earnings....WOW.

Current consensus is for 49 cps in FY23 growing to 64cps in FY24 and 76 cps in FY25
I can see analysts radially pulling back on those projections and seriously downgrading their DCF valuation.

If I held I would SELL.  Thankfully I have never believed in the hype of super high PE stocks with modest growth rates.

First of 3 downgrades to come ?
Lot of people though the dog was way too bearish with his $15 call earlier this year.
Even at $15 they'd be on a FY23 of ~ 47 which now looks stretched to me.

Not so long ago on a Friday, share price now $26 and its a Friday.