OCA - Oceania Healthcare

[Waltzing]

Its like chasing your tail...

plan A , Plan B ... Plan C ...

who wants to even bother reading the reports when there are some real possible options going to turn up overseas next year...

heck even IBM is UP...

[Mr Cashflow]

Should I  buy this stock now or wait?

[Hectorplains]

Should I  buy this stock now or wait?

Yikes, are those really the only two outcomes available to you?  I come here to chew the fat... you know, Stock "Talk." I can only suggest you read the thread - there is some very good, detailed analysis from some knowledgeable punters - that might help you with your question.

[winner (n)]

Another month/year passes and again the SUM share price outperformed the OCA share price (or in an ugly month didn't fall as much as OCA)

Could look at the chart showing the relativity of the two stocks two ways.

One school of thought would be that currently OCA is the cheapest its ever been relative to SUM. In other words good buying in the hope that in the future the trend will reverse and one will be better rewarded holding OCA than SUM.

Another point of view is that they say 'the market is forward looking' and as such the market is currently saying nothing has changed and SUM will continue to do better / outperform OCA. Of course the market isn't always right and this forward looking stuff is all nonsense anyway

One never knows. January might be an inflection point and OCA outperforms SUM and continues to do so

Sorry to bore you all again but please bear with me and my morbid fascination with long standing trends

You cannot view this attachment.

[Hectorplains]

Another month/year passes and again the SUM share price outperformed the OCA share price (or in an ugly month didn't fall as much as OCA)

Could look at the chart showing the relativity of the two stocks two ways.

One school of thought would be that currently OCA is the cheapest its ever been relative to SUM. In other words good buying in the hope that in the future the trend will reverse and one will be better rewarded holding OCA than SUM.

Another point of view is that they say 'the market is forward looking' and as such the market is currently saying nothing has changed and SUM will continue to do better / outperform OCA. Of course the market isn't always right and this forward looking stuff is all nonsense anyway

One never knows. January might be an inflection point and OCA outperforms SUM and continues to do so

Sorry to bore you all again but please bear with me and my morbid fascination with long standing trends

You cannot view this attachment.

Yup, OCA is in a down trend.  It may pay to recall the old Sioux adage, "that picking bottoms gets you sh*tty fingers."

[Ferg]

Not boring at all winner. Keep sharing it. We like 'inflection points' but they are proving elusive (or illusive??).

[Basil]

Great image Winner.  Tells you one business model is working and the other...

[winner (n)]

Great image Winner.  Tells you one business model is working and the other...

And that doesn't appear to be just your opinion either - its the opinion of the market per se and if market is forward looking (many keep on reminding me it is) than the market also saying it's not going to change soon

[Basil]

OCA care suite model arguably a decade or slightly more too early.
Average entry age into villages according to RYM and SUM is about 80.
Baby boomer tsunami started in 1946.  1946 + 80 = 2026.  That suggests the boomer tsunami is about to hit retirement villages in a few years but Earl told an Auckland branch of the shareholders association meeting in his presentation a few years ago they are targeting an older demographic with their boutique villages,, ("we're different from the others and not building land based cruise ship's"), (about 85) and an even older demographic (late 80's), with their care suites 88 + 1946 = 2034.

I would argue the old adage that in the long run the market is a weighing machine not a voting machine is what's responsible for the long term trend we're seeing.  If you go back to 2017 when OCA listed SUM's underlying profit was $81.7m and this year I expect they will announce close to $200m.
OCA on the other hand...oh dear...

[BlackPeter]

Should I  buy this stock now or wait?

YES!

[BlackPeter]

Another month/year passes and again the SUM share price outperformed the OCA share price (or in an ugly month didn't fall as much as OCA)

Could look at the chart showing the relativity of the two stocks two ways.

One school of thought would be that currently OCA is the cheapest its ever been relative to SUM. In other words good buying in the hope that in the future the trend will reverse and one will be better rewarded holding OCA than SUM.

Another point of view is that they say 'the market is forward looking' and as such the market is currently saying nothing has changed and SUM will continue to do better / outperform OCA. Of course the market isn't always right and this forward looking stuff is all nonsense anyway

One never knows. January might be an inflection point and OCA outperforms SUM and continues to do so

Sorry to bore you all again but please bear with me and my morbid fascination with long standing trends

You cannot view this attachment.

Maybe you should draw as well a five year chart comparing SUM and RYM (remember "1 RYM equals two SUM"?) and analyse the (spoiler alert) inflection point. This would help us to better understand the trendline OCA vs SUM and how it might change in the future ...

[Basil]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/financials/
Not sure whether analysts are using IFRS reported profits or underlying profit, but I see they're only expecting 6 cps in FY23 and contrary to one well known poster on the other site who is expecting substantial growth in FY24, analysts are again forecasting only 6 cps in FY24.  If the analysts are correct, FY24 will mark 8 years since they listed, and earnings will have gone backwards in all that time. 
I dare not comment on the former poster who was adamant that 1 RYM would always be worth 2 SUM or name those that supported said poster.

[Clearasmud]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/financials/
Not sure whether analysts are using IFRS reported profits or underlying profit, but I see they're only expecting 6 cps in FY23 and contrary to one well known poster on the other site who is expecting substantial growth in FY24, analysts are again forecasting only 6 cps in FY24.  If the analysts are correct, FY24 will mark 8 years since they listed, and earnings will have gone backwards in all that time. 
I dare not comment on the former poster who was adamant that 1 RYM would always be worth 2 SUM or name those that supported said poster.

Like you he's a very open poster,which is really appreciated.
Unfortunately it appears he did serious doe on A2M and then near the bottem moved quite a bit of what was left into OCA at around $1.25.
Feel for him.

[Waltzing]

This sector is mostly a hold... for an unknown quantum of time.....

[BlackPeter]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/financials/
Not sure whether analysts are using IFRS reported profits or underlying profit, but I see they're only expecting 6 cps in FY23 and contrary to one well known poster on the other site who is expecting substantial growth in FY24, analysts are again forecasting only 6 cps in FY24.  If the analysts are correct, FY24 will mark 8 years since they listed, and earnings will have gone backwards in all that time. 
I dare not comment on the former poster who was adamant that 1 RYM would always be worth 2 SUM or name those that supported said poster.

Analysts typically estimate IFRS earnings but with REITS they are often very bad in estimating the revaluation gains or losses (and yes, sometimes they tend to forget them). Not that their other forecasts are better, but hey.

Given that - they need to throw the tea leaves out of the cup to predict when the Real Estate Market will turn around. Some analysts say second half of 23, which would mean that FY24 might end real estate price wise best case as it started (remember, the OCA FY goes only to March) ... i.e. no revaluation gains (but no losses either) in FY24.

Apart from that - 6 cents EPS for a 80 cents share without any revaluation gains does not look that bad, doesn't it? Just make sure you switch off the pitch thrower before you miss the bend in the trend. It is hard to keep a sight on the opportunities if you paint everything black (and I don't mean black numbers)  ) ;