OCA - Oceania Healthcare

[BlackPeter]

Things like Underlying Earnings do use real numbers and even thought those distardly CFOs might manage what's reported they do represent a pretty good feel for how current activities (looking after and caring for people and selling properties) are doing

Insofar as your using these internationally agrred standards have you ever considered that as the resulting NPAT is essentially change in fair valuations how guesses, estimates, assumptions etc etc are behind those numbers - many guesses,estimates, assumptions I reckon

Absolutely - most books are based on guesses. However, adding another set of guesses (by using "underlying earnings") does not improve the guesswork.

I prefer books to at least try to represent a value close to what the company is worth ... and if I ignore e.g. the change of asset valuations, than I get only half the story.

Its like calculating the gains out of owning a house and ignoring at the same time the capital appreciation (or depreciati0n  );

[Minimoke]

Announcement today that Dr Frances Hughes has resigned as Group General Manager Clinical and Care Services as she has been selected as a National Candidate for the Mana seta in next years elections.

I have no idea how winnabel this seat will be. Or how far up the List she will be.

But if she finds her self in Parliament this time next year hopefully the retirement sector has a strong advocate within the tent.

[Mousehold]

Announcement today that Dr Frances Hughes has resigned as Group General Manager Clinical and Care Services as she has been selected as a National Candidate for the Mana seta in next years elections.

I have no idea how winnabel this seat will be. Or how far up the List she will be.

But if she finds her self in Parliament this time next year hopefully the retirement sector has a strong advocate within the tent.

This is my electorate. Good luck to her but I think anyone that isn't waving a red flag will struggle in this seat going on past history.

[winner (n)]

Property market still stuffed

Low number of sales a worry for OCA


https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Monthly%20Press%20Release%20Assets/Residential/11%20-%20November/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20November%202022.pdf

[winner (n)]

Those REINZ numbers ..suppose we can say the property market has 'woken up'

[Waltzing]

winner you have a bot working right...

how do you manage this many posts a day...

sucessful retired investor, race winner and ex analyst....

[BlackPeter]

This is my electorate. Good luck to her but I think anyone that isn't waving a red flag will struggle in this seat going on past history.

If I look how Labour is dropping in popularity I'd suppose that National is quite likely to take next year as well a lot of list candidates into parliament ... and I would be surprised if anybody would give up their job if they haven't got at least a reasonably safe place on the list. Well, I wouldn't.

[Whacc]

Announcement today that Dr Frances Hughes has resigned as Group General Manager Clinical and Care Services as she has been selected as a National Candidate for the Mana seta in next years elections.

I have no idea how winnabel this seat will be. Or how far up the List she will be.

But if she finds her self in Parliament this time next year hopefully the retirement sector has a strong advocate within the tent.

Quite interesting given she also put her name forward as a National candidate for the recent Hamilton West byelection.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300726857/underdog-national-party-unveils-diverse-candidate-shortlist-for-hamilton-west-byelection

So she is shopping around electorates.

I guess once you pin your colours to a political party then an executive role in a listed business like OCA becomes quite untenable.  With OCA's material reliance on Government funding, and particularly as head of nursing lobbying for that funding, it would be difficult once you're seen as partisan.

[Hectorplains]

Quite interesting given she also put her name forward as a National candidate for the recent Hamilton West byelection.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300726857/underdog-national-party-unveils-diverse-candidate-shortlist-for-hamilton-west-byelection

So she is shopping around electorates.

I guess once you pin your colours to a political party then an executive role in a listed business like OCA becomes quite untenable.  With OCA's material reliance on Government funding, and particularly as head of nursing lobbying for that funding, it would be difficult once you're seen as partisan.

Mana is a safe Labour seat, currently held by  Kris Faafoi.  It has a history of National carpetbaggers - who routinely lost the electorate vote but then came in on the list (Parata, Finlayson etc.)  Frances Hughes does not currently feature on the National Party List (2020.)

[entrep]

This thread has transformed the way I saw OCA re the debt leveraging and slowing down, and perfectly explains the PA that we have seen - SUM stronger, OCA and RYM weak.

However, Beagle, I think you said ARV was comparatively strong as well (debt wise). but the SP has been smashed?

Do you hold ANY retirement stocks?

[Basil]

Welcome to the cool people's forum Entrep, fabulous you found your way here.
Gosh what a grueling year its been in this sector.  Breathtaking really. Worryingly the latest REINZ and other source date suggests the speed of the housing decline is accelerating and the volume of sales is drying up even more.
You know from the other place when I sold out of OCA. 
I also sold out of ARV earlier in the year averaging about $1.70 but bought a very small "toe in the water" 2% portfolio position back again quite recently at ~ $1.20.  I think on reflection I probably pulled the trigger a bit early.
Yes I think ARV is very cheap e.t.c. e.t.c., see ARV thread...but all boats go lower on an outgoing tide and that includes the good ones with no leaks in them like SUM and ARV.
I'm not keen to add to any of these stocks until we see the real estate market stabilize.
Interestingly Harbour Asset Management came out yesterday, more here see point 10 https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/top-10-risks-and-opportunities-for-2023/ and said "Extremely poor affordability, however, suggests downside risks to house prices. House price-to-income ratios and mortgage repayment costs, for example, require a further 30% decline in house prices to return to long-term averages (all else equal[/i])".  ANZ N.Z's biggest lender are stress testing mortgage applicants at 8.6% and hardly anyone is qualifying because the numbers simply don't work for where interest rates and house prices currently sit.  I think the severe lack of affordability is going to really undermine any prospect of any early recovery in house prices.
Maybe Balance is right and we're looking at several years of house price declines ?  This real estate malaise could very easily extend into right through 2023 and well into 2024.

What's the catalyst to turn this sector around in 2023 ?  I don't see one.   

[BlackPeter]

...

What's the catalyst to turn this sector around in 2023 ?  I don't see one.   

Increased immigration?

First home buyers needing a roof over their heads?

But I guess we shall see ....

[Plata]

I think that the slow decline in retirement stock prices we have seen in recent times will probably continue for a while. On that basis I sold out (oca included) a while ago for a heavy loss, and so far I am not unhappy with my choice. In saying that, I am concerned that the trend reversal may be quite rapid (say interest rates start coming down fast, and/or a few strong immigration or HPI stat prints) and I might be left high and dry. Say we get to the next investor update, and house price decline accelerates, and they say pricing has been strong, sales strong etc... that might be big on the upside. I guess the bigger question is how likely is that.

[Mousehold]

Mana is a safe Labour seat, currently held by  Kris Faafoi.  It has a history of National carpetbaggers - who routinely lost the electorate vote but then came in on the list (Parata, Finlayson etc.)

He's gone walkabout - the recently turned 18 member of the household is getting letters from a different numptie in red but I forget her name. Agree Mana will remain red.

[winner (n)]

All Directors etc took the DRP instead of cash ....probably Liz told them to set an example for all shareholders

Suppose many shareholders took cash ...they need to be reprimanded?

Some 68% of shares took the cash anyway ......lot higher %age if allow for the directors etc