OCA - Oceania Healthcare

[winner (n)]

Taleb in a great book 'Fooled by Randomness'wrote a bit about the anxiety of looking at portfolios too often

As humans have evolved they feel losses significantly more than gains and then Taleb goes on about noise and meaning

Briefly -
"A 15% return with a 10% volatility (or uncertainty) per annum translates into a 93% probability of success in any given year. But seen at a narrow time scale, this translates into a mere 50.02% probability of success over any given second as shown in the table.  Over the very narrow time increment, the observation will reveal close to nothing. Yet the dentist's heart will not tell him that. Being emotional, he feels a pang with every loss, as it shows in red on his screen. He feels some pleasure when the performance is positive, but not in equivalent amount as the pain when the performance is negative"

Ie the more you look at your portfoliothe more pain one suffers .... even if over a year the portfolio makes a decent return

For more detail this is worth reading

http://mastersinvest.com/newblog/2017/5/11/check-daily

[Basil]

Good to look at the psychology of investing and to not be looking at one's portfolio too often.

Can't help myself wondering about the investment psychology of discounts to NTA giving the perception of value when no value really exists if you discount your valuation for all the assets involved in care which give such a pitiful return.

I also sometimes wonder about the investment psychology of simply holding on to one's dog's thinking they must come right eventually ?

Then there's another interesting psychology, that of following those who appear to know what they're doing...regardless of returns all because they for whatever reason attract a following, maybe not unlike the Pied Piper https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pied_Piper_of_Hamelin
"The phrase "pied piper" has become a metaphor for a person who attracts a following through charisma or false promises"

A certain person in another place essentially says I have a model that promises growth if you just keep hanging on.
But after 5 and a half years we've had no earnings growth so how long does one keep hanging on hoping those promises come true ?

If you're not going to look objectively at the five and a half year mark and now say, we've got the whole care sector under ever worsening and unprecedented pressure (thank you ARV and RYM for the free heads-up) and housing in the steepest fall in decades, if the growth in eps doesn't happen do you keep waiting another year, another two years, another five and a half years ? 

What about the opportunity cost of how much growth you could have got elsewhere ?  I reckon the IPO price of 79 cents could get tested in the coming weeks. 

[winner (n)]

IPO price $0.79 (raised $200m to reduce debt - none went to Oceania to grow etc)

Raised $100m recently at $1.30 and $1.28

All up market has put in $300m at an average of $0.91 - so current share price not that good relative to that

And that's not counting $20m odd from the DRP at prices $1.1750 / $0.9910 / $1.5331 / $1.4040 / $1.2837 and
$0.9875

Oh well, that's life

[Waltzing]

W() posting that here on a forum that sees few vistors is probably a good idea......

lucky its not performing like a china stock...

but wait it hit a high of 1.50 and above?

cripes... it is acting like a china stock....

dont post that on sharetrader... might ruin a lovely spring day..

[winner (n)]

Looking forward to Oceania's half year report in a few weeks. Could be exciting.

Below are the headlines for previous announcements since 2019. Notice since our Brent took over the headlines have all been good news and not just the staid announcement from Earl's days

Brent is telling a story

There was an investing 'rule' in the 1990's early 2000's that went along the lines of 'Just buy the story and it'll work out'. That 'went' out of fashion post the dot com collapse. Another long standing simple 'rule' has been the '60/40 portfolio and you'll do alright no matter what happens' - but the 60% stocks / 40% portfolios are down about 20% this year so that 'rule' seems destined to be dropped.

Good things often return so maybe the 'just buy the story and it'll work out' rule will work again.

Wonder what our Brent will come up with as a headline in a few weeks ... to keep that story alive


Recent headlines:
May 22 - Oceania positioned for growth
Nov 21 - Oceania delivers improved performance despite COVID-19
May 21 - Oceania records strong 10 month trading results
Jan 21 - Oceania Healthcare - Half Year Result and Interim Report
Jul 20 - Financial results for the year ended 31 May 2020
Jan 20 - Oceania Healthcare - Half Year Result and Interim Report
Jul 19 - Financial Results for the Year Ended 31 May 2019

I won't post the Underlying Earnings EPS numbers as that will ruin the story

[Basil]

https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/  "You've always believed in better"
(unless you're talking about the real key metric, underlying eps which the company goes to considerable lengths to avoid ever mentioning) .

[Waltzing]

"I won't post the Underlying Earnings EPS numbers as that will ruin the story"

A young legal beagle once said  " Facts just the facts:"

[Basil]

Technically its a STRONG SELL
https://www.investing.com/equities/oceania-healthcare-ltd-technical?cid=1096380

[BlackPeter]

Technically its a STRONG SELL
https://www.investing.com/equities/oceania-healthcare-ltd-technical?cid=1096380

Well, quite similar to 2020 short before it bounced back from something like 40 cents to something like $1.60.

If anything - it might have been a "strong sell" for traders when it went through the MA100 or MA200 ... but recommending to sell now feels sort of stupid (to avoid stronger language).

Is this really what you would recommend to somebody you care about? Or are you just trying to increase the level of fear for people who didn't do their fundamental analysis in order to pick up some more really cheap shares?

Obviously - Fundamentally it is a strong BUY!

9.4 out of 10 from four analysts - quite impressive

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/

[winner (n)]

Well, quite similar to 2020 short before it bounced back from something like 40 cents to something like $1.60.

If anything - it might have been a "strong sell" for traders when it went through the MA100 or MA200 ... but recommending to sell now feels sort of stupid (to avoid stronger language).

Is this really what you would recommend to somebody you care about? Or are you just trying to increase the level of fear for people who didn't do their fundamental analysis in order to pick up some more really cheap shares?

Obviously - Fundamentally it is a strong BUY!

9.4 out of 10 from four analysts - quite impressive

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/

Hey BP - have you changed your mind about analysts - you usually pretty disparaging about them

strange those 4 analysts haven't reduced their targets much - usually they track the share price (up as well as down)

[BlackPeter]

Hey BP - have you changed your mind about analysts - you usually pretty disparaging about them

strange those 4 analysts haven't reduced their targets much - usually they track the share price (up as well as down)

No matter what I think about analyst forecasts ... I am sure the forecasts and recommendations from market screener (which basically covers the majority of fundamental analysts) are per se not less credible than any computer generated recommendation from Investing.com which Basil referred to.

BTW - I used to register some years ago with Investing.com ... and had to give them my email as well as my cell phone number (they said for security reasons). Starting with that mistake I got initially a flood of cold calls on my cell phone from various UK investment advisors (telling me they got the data from Investment.com) selling all sorts of stuff. Took more than a year for the flood to turn into a trickle, and neither telling them to go away nor blocking the numbers does help, they often call from new numbers. AVOID them unless you like lots of cold calls during (NZ) night hours and if you travel to pay the roaming fees for their calls. Disgusting bunch of people, but clearly not trustworthy analysts.

[Plata]

Man oh man 83 cents... This downtrend seems rock solid! Getting pretty sick of scuba diving here, at least given the lack of trading updates nothing is going too amiss. Right? 

[winner (n)]

Man oh man 83 cents... This downtrend seems rock solid! Getting pretty sick of scuba diving here, at least given the lack of trading updates nothing is going too amiss. Right? 

Hasnt been that low for yonks

Brent needs to come out with an announcement tomorrow ......say a few positive things and a hint the financials to be announced in a few weeks arent that bad

The punters need some hugs and cuddles eh

[Basil]

Last year they didn't report until 29 November.  I suspect the next month and a bit is going to be a very painful wait for shareholders and even when the wait is over the company will report numbers that will simply confirm what the smart money already knows and that's what ARV and RYM have been clearly warning about, that the returns from care and the pressure the care sector is under have never been worse. 

[Shareguy]

I can't help feel that it these levels OCA is going to attract some sort of interest.  How much lower can it go?