PEB-Pacific Edge

[LoungeLizard]

Not sure at all this holds water. This suggests the US healthcare system is in worse shape than the N.Z. healthcare system which seems incredibly unlikely to me other than the fact that we have a public system and they don't so cost could be a serious factor in the US for the average American so I asked A.I. what is the average cost for a cystoscopy procedure in the US and here's the answer   That's not materially different to the cost of the PEB test so I'm not convinced.  Any intelligent person knows you're better off with the gold standard warrant of fitness inspection...but then again, maybe there's lots of unintelligent people in the US, that's definitely a plausible explanation seeing as they voted "Chump" into power for a second time.  Agree, a lot of people do nothing when blood presents in the urine or take antibiotics and hope its just a urinary track infection but doing something further means making a choice between a very expensive urine marker test or a cystoscopy.  I'm not convinced the uptake of a urinary biomarker is the go to option and the reason is the not inconsiderable cost.  If it was a few hundred dollars compared to a cystoscopy that cost ten times that much I would be convinced but clearly we're very far from that being the case.

There's a huge amount of data on the Pacific Edge website about the cost savings to providers, patient satisfaction surveys, the greater access to care for patients living in remote areas of the US, as well as all the positive clinical trials that resulted in the tests getting included in the UAU guidelines and now re-instated for Medicare coverage. Kaiser Permanence (the biggest non-profit provider in the US) has a huge database of real world data showing the big drop in unnecessary cystoscopies (and savings) as a result of using CXBladder.

In other words, investors like myself and others here have looked at all this data, weighed up the risk and reward and decided it was worth a punt. It's been a bit of a rough ride but the stars are aligning now for PEB and the market is starting to get on board. PEB is clearly not for everyone, but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't turn out to be the best NZX50 performer this year.

[Basil]

Fair enough LL. At least you called it what it is, a punt.
Everything that's gone before with PEB and everything they've said before and my own experience makes me deeply skeptical. Good luck ro holders.

[LoungeLizard]

I should clarify that PEB was definitely "a punt" back in the day when it was still conducting clinical trials, gathering clinical support and trying to win back Medicare coverage. Now that all those things have been put to bed, there's a lot less risk involved, although obviously nothing is certain.
 
All investments are involve a degree of speculation. I wouldn't, for example, touch MFB with a barge pole because of its history and high degree of vulnerability to economic downturn. Horses for courses.

[Basil]

Some companies have a well proven track record of earnings and growth and are VASTLY lower risk than a company that has yet to prove anything in terms of earnings.  MFB has proven its business model is very resilient and is about to report improved earnings in an extremely  tough economy.  All PEB has proven so far is it can tear up ~ $300m+ in shareholders capital and make endless promises of imminent commercial success which to date have all proven to be false dawns. 

It remains to be seen if it can ever generate a single cent in earnings.  Maybe this time it will be different and maybe this weekend I will have a punt on Lotto and win knowing that at least the staff at the Lotto shop are not eating 99.9% of my speculative wager unlike some other companies offering the chance of a spin on the roulette wheel.

But why stop there, you can punt on the gambling machine itself, SKC trading at an all time low of 56 cents today. Their 10 year chart is a shocker just like PEB's. There's a difference between investing and speculating mate although the line is somewhat blurred with SKC but I would suggest the line is very clear between MFB and PEB.

[Left Field]

Nice that  ANZ investments see value in PEB.....

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/472822/attachment/468632/472822-468632.pdf

[Left Field]

....... I would suggest the line is very clear between MFB and PEB.

Well said...... this pic shows your clear line very well. lol.

There is really no relevant comparison between these two companies... other than in your mind............ time to move on.

[Poet]

A lot of negative talk about the need for another cap raise next year to aid commercialisation. I see things going in a different direction - more along the lines of selling a strategic stake to a partner that can fund and accelerate commercialisation.

Chat GPT had this to say

With the draft LCD now explicitly covering Cxbladder Triage and Triage Plus, Pacific Edge has moved from being a speculative reimbursement story to a potential commercialization story. That changes the type of partner that becomes attractive.

The most logical partners fall into four groups:

1. Large Diagnostics Companies

These are the highest-probability strategic partners because they already have the sales force, payer relationships and laboratory infrastructure needed to scale Cxbladder.

Potential candidates:

Abbott Laboratories
Roche Diagnostics
Quest Diagnostics
Labcorp
Danaher (Cepheid/Beckman)

Why:

The draft LCD creates a reimbursement pathway for 66+ million Medicare beneficiaries and potentially provides a template for commercial payers.
Pacific Edge currently has a highly focused bladder cancer franchise rather than a broad oncology menu.
Larger diagnostics groups often acquire or partner with companies once reimbursement risk is substantially reduced.
2. Urology-Focused Strategic Partners

These may be the best commercial fit.

Examples:

Kaiser Permanente
Urology America
US Urology Partners

Pacific Edge already has significant experience with Kaiser, and the company has highlighted growth through the Kaiser Southern California system.

A large urology network could accelerate adoption without a full acquisition.

3. Precision Oncology Companies

Less obvious, but potentially high value.

Examples:

Exact Sciences
Guardant Health
Natera

Rationale:

These companies are building cancer-testing platforms.
Cxbladder gives them a strong position in urology, where many have limited exposure.
Exact Sciences is particularly interesting because it has a history of paying significant premiums for reimbursed cancer diagnostics assets.
4. Commercial Payers and Population Health Groups

Not acquirers, but important strategic allies.

Pacific Edge has already reported coverage progress with:

Blue Cross Blue Shield North Carolina
Blue Cross Blue Shield South Carolina
Highmark
Avalon Healthcare Solutions

These organizations have either adopted or endorsed coverage criteria for Cxbladder products, which could help drive broader payer adoption.

Who would I rank highest?

If the draft LCD becomes final substantially unchanged, my ranking would be:

Rank   Potential Partner   Strategic Logic
1   Quest Diagnostics   Immediate national distribution
2   Labcorp   Similar rationale; strong physician reach
3   Exact Sciences   Strong oncology fit and acquisition history
4   Abbott Laboratories   Scale and global reach
5   Roche Diagnostics   Global molecular diagnostics leader

For shareholders, the most interesting outcome is probably not a distribution agreement but a takeout. The draft LCD significantly reduces the largest historical objection to acquiring Pacific Edge: reimbursement uncertainty. The company's own commentary describes the draft policy as placing it "on the cusp of a major commercial inflection point" and establishing a moat around the microhematuria market because only Triage and Triage Plus are included in the draft coding guidance.

If the final LCD arrives in late 2026 with similar wording, I think Quest, Labcorp and Exact Sciences become the three most plausible strategic counterparties to watch.

[LoungeLizard]

A lot of negative talk about the need for another cap raise next year to aid commercialisation. I see things going in a different direction - more along the lines of selling a strategic stake to a partner that can fund and accelerate commercialisation.

Chat GPT had this to say

With the draft LCD now explicitly covering Cxbladder Triage and Triage Plus, Pacific Edge has moved from being a speculative reimbursement story to a potential commercialization story. That changes the type of partner that becomes attractive.

The most logical partners fall into four groups:

1. Large Diagnostics Companies

These are the highest-probability strategic partners because they already have the sales force, payer relationships and laboratory infrastructure needed to scale Cxbladder.

Potential candidates:

Abbott Laboratories
Roche Diagnostics
Quest Diagnostics
Labcorp
Danaher (Cepheid/Beckman)

Why:

The draft LCD creates a reimbursement pathway for 66+ million Medicare beneficiaries and potentially provides a template for commercial payers.
Pacific Edge currently has a highly focused bladder cancer franchise rather than a broad oncology menu.
Larger diagnostics groups often acquire or partner with companies once reimbursement risk is substantially reduced.
2. Urology-Focused Strategic Partners

These may be the best commercial fit.

Examples:

Kaiser Permanente
Urology America
US Urology Partners

Pacific Edge already has significant experience with Kaiser, and the company has highlighted growth through the Kaiser Southern California system.

A large urology network could accelerate adoption without a full acquisition.

3. Precision Oncology Companies

Less obvious, but potentially high value.

Examples:

Exact Sciences
Guardant Health
Natera

Rationale:

These companies are building cancer-testing platforms.
Cxbladder gives them a strong position in urology, where many have limited exposure.
Exact Sciences is particularly interesting because it has a history of paying significant premiums for reimbursed cancer diagnostics assets.
4. Commercial Payers and Population Health Groups

Not acquirers, but important strategic allies.

Pacific Edge has already reported coverage progress with:

Blue Cross Blue Shield North Carolina
Blue Cross Blue Shield South Carolina
Highmark
Avalon Healthcare Solutions

These organizations have either adopted or endorsed coverage criteria for Cxbladder products, which could help drive broader payer adoption.

Who would I rank highest?

If the draft LCD becomes final substantially unchanged, my ranking would be:

Rank   Potential Partner   Strategic Logic
1   Quest Diagnostics   Immediate national distribution
2   Labcorp   Similar rationale; strong physician reach
3   Exact Sciences   Strong oncology fit and acquisition history
4   Abbott Laboratories   Scale and global reach
5   Roche Diagnostics   Global molecular diagnostics leader

For shareholders, the most interesting outcome is probably not a distribution agreement but a takeout. The draft LCD significantly reduces the largest historical objection to acquiring Pacific Edge: reimbursement uncertainty. The company's own commentary describes the draft policy as placing it "on the cusp of a major commercial inflection point" and establishing a moat around the microhematuria market because only Triage and Triage Plus are included in the draft coding guidance.

If the final LCD arrives in late 2026 with similar wording, I think Quest, Labcorp and Exact Sciences become the three most plausible strategic counterparties to watch.

Interesting. I wouldn't necessarily favour a buyout myself - at least not in the early stages - but a strategic partnership with a bigger company with the funds and influence to fast-track take-up, both in the US and globally would be a positive outcome.

[Pierre]

Included in today's FY results report:

...final effective coverage of the LCD
expected by the end of the 2026 calendar year.

Novitas confirms, post
balance date, that Pacific Edge can commence claim-by-claim reimbursement for
intermediate risk microhematuria patients in line with the draft LCD.

Looks like 2026 will be PEB's year!

[Left Field]

Detailed FY26 Financial results and related info...........

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/473221/attachment/469219/473221-469219.pdf

Press release re above

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/473221

[LoungeLizard]

The significant increase in the Medicare pricing together with the news "that products covered in the draft are eligible for claim-by-claim reimbursement for the patient population defined in the draft LCD," should see revenue increasing almost immediately. Agreed, Pierre, that 2026 is looking like a transformative year for PEB.

[Greekwatchdog]

Looks like retail holders will have there application scaled back. Not surprising.

Cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge (NZX/ASX: PEB) today reminds shareholders that the retail offer to eligible existing shareholders to raise up to NZ$6 million (with the ability to accept over-subscriptions at PEB's discretion) closes at 5.00pm NZT on Thursday, 28 May 2026 (Retail Offer).

The Retail Offer is open to "Eligible Shareholders", who are all persons recorded on Pacific Edge's share register at 7:00pm NZST on Friday, 8 May 2026 as being a holder of Pacific Edge shares and having an address in New Zealand. Eligible Shareholders can subscribe for up to NZ$50,000 of new shares under the Retail Offer.

As at 8am on 25 May 2026, PEB has received applications for $14.0 million under the Retail Offer.

[Pierre]

The news of the volume of applications and likely scaling should give the SP a bit of a kick upwards today.

[Habitz]

6/14 is 42 percent if oversubs are not accepted

[LoungeLizard]

Looks like there will be massive scaling for retail investors to keep PEB within capital raise regs. Seems unfair to me that PEB, knowing the cap raise limits, still accepted oversubscription for Institutions and as a result retail investors get heavily scaled back.