PEB-Pacific Edge

[LoungeLizard]

I'm certainly not complaining about the CR / LCD timing. The record date has passed so no johny-come-lately can pile in on the CR but it does allow long term holders to participate and get a considerable discount in doing so. Quite often CR's have negative effect on holders so it's refreshing that this one delivers an instant windfall.   

[Pierre]

Profit takers moving in now. Will be interesting to see where the SP lands at closing today. Around 25c maybe?

Closed at 27c. A nice 59% gain on the issue price in the CR.

Lots more to come when the LCD is finalised later this year.

Very happy holder here.

[LoungeLizard]

Great day for holders. The negative posts from just a couple of days ago, didn't age well!

Applied for a 20% increase to my holding today - probably will be scaled back. Pretty much a no-brainer to participate in the CR given the 60% discount.

A lot of horse-trading today, but when things settle down I would expect the SP to keep increasing up to the finalisation of the LCD, which is a certainty. Lot's of good news to come - increasing tests and revenues, other providers perhaps coming on board, momentum in Asia and inclusion in the NZX50.
27c is a steal in my opinion given that PEB are in a much stronger position now than they were when the SP was $1.50!

[Greekwatchdog]

Based on todays news, PEB could be a takeover target sooner rather than later. Once the LCD is confirmed in the future PEB has this to themselves as no other product in the LCD

[Left Field]

MFB is in play, whereas PEB is not.
MFB is capable of paying as much as 15% gross dividend in FY28 if a takeover is not forthcoming whereas its anyone's guess when of if PEB might ever pay a dividend.  MFB is much more of heads you win, tails no takeover and with huge dividends in the years ahead you win even bigger.

PEB you are living in hope just like previous shareholders over the decades have lived in hope before you.

What a laugh indeed.

Compare the addressable market for PEB cf MFB.
Compare the protective 'moat' and research that endorses PEB cf MFB.

The market is forward looking.

MFB will never be worth $1b+ with the potential to be worth 2-3x that. Obviously different risk profiles but I'm surprised how many can't see where PEB is not at relative to its past.

Well said.

[Basil]

Imminent commercial success has been promised and inferred many, many times before by PEB management and over more than 2 decades all that's happened is over and over again they keep tapping shareholders for more capital so many times with promises that this time it will be different that I have lost count.  It might take many more years and several more capital raises before this company produces real earnings, if ever.  Good luck to shareholders. 

[Pierre]

I totally understand your perspective Basil; it's a view that is probably shared by all non-shareholders – and perhaps even by a few who are holders.  However, IMO this time IS DIFFERENT.

Last Friday's announcement of a draft LCD for urine-based biomarkers for hematuria evaluation explicitly proposes Medicare coverage for PEB's CxBladder Triage and Triage Plus. This is a hugely significant development, especially when coming so soon after the meeting of a panel of urological experts hosted by Novitas in February.

When the LCD is finalised, potentially later this year, it will provide PEB with access to reimbursement for 66 million Medicare patients. It also will encourage commercial insurers to include coverage in their policies for 223 million lives that they insure. In addition, PEB expects the news to provide a tailwind to the adoption of its products in international markets. As others have alluded to, the addressable market for PEB is enormous and achieving only a relatively small percentage will be a game changer for the business.

Not only does this latest LCD announcement herald a substantial financial opportunity for investors, but also it positions PEB on the international stage to play a significant role in helping to reduce the death rate from the over 600,000 new cases of bladder cancer diagnosed annually worldwide.

Sorry for going on a bit, but I strongly believe PEB is now on the cusp of greatness (and will achieve far more than MFB ever will). The company won't be paying a dividend anytime soon though.

[Poet]

I totally understand your perspective Basil; it's a view that is probably shared by all non-shareholders – and perhaps even by a few who are holders.  However, IMO this time IS DIFFERENT.

Last Friday's announcement of a draft LCD for urine-based biomarkers for hematuria evaluation explicitly proposes Medicare coverage for PEB's CxBladder Triage and Triage Plus. This is a hugely significant development, especially when coming so soon after the meeting of a panel of urological experts hosted by Novitas in February.

When the LCD is finalised, potentially later this year, it will provide PEB with access to reimbursement for 66 million Medicare patients. It also will encourage commercial insurers to include coverage in their policies for 223 million lives that they insure. In addition, PEB expects the news to provide a tailwind to the adoption of its products in international markets. As others have alluded to, the addressable market for PEB is enormous and achieving only a relatively small percentage will be a game changer for the business.

Not only does this latest LCD announcement herald a substantial financial opportunity for investors, but also it positions PEB on the international stage to play a significant role in helping to reduce the death rate from the over 600,000 new cases of bladder cancer diagnosed annually worldwide.

Sorry for going on a bit, but I strongly believe PEB is now on the cusp of greatness (and will achieve far more than MFB ever will). The company won't be paying a dividend anytime soon though.

Fully agree with this and also note that rather than encouraging other non-medicare payers, the law in many states mandates that non-medicare insurers must reimburse these tests once the lcd becomes permanent.
Im very surprised that they are still available at 27c, but maybe their history is dragging on them. They wont be at that price for long imo.

[Greekwatchdog]

Note ex For Bar this morning

Pacific Edge (PEB) received the positive news it has been seeking. Draft Medicare/CMS reimbursement coverage for its Cxbladder Triage and Triage Plus products, meaningfully increasing its revenue outlook. The inclusion of Triage Plus is important; it wasn't previously covered and commands a ~+75% higher price than Triage. We do not expect Medicare test volumes to quickly return to prior highs, but considering: (1) this early coverage decision; (2) the potential for PEB to seek claim-by-claim reimbursements during the draft period; and (3) a steady increase in reimbursed test volumes, PEB's FY27 cash burn should be lower than its prior ~-NZ$2.5m per month target. PEB's investment case now returns to clinical adoption, revenue growth, and execution rather than the binary coverage outcome that has overshadowed it for the past four years. Revenue growth was solid when PEB last had coverage, but its EBITDA losses expanded as its investment behind this growth was greater. This time, revenue growth will need to be strong without a meaningful cost increase.

Favourable draft local coverage determination (LCD)
PEB's Cxbladder Triage and Triage Plus products have been included in a draft LCD published on 14 May 2026 (here and here). This is the outcome PEB has been aiming for and marks a return to Medicare reimbursement for Cxbladder. The inclusion of Triage Plus is important given its meaningfully higher price point. PEB's products were the only urine-based biomarkers included in the draft decision. There is still at least three months until the decision is finalised/effective and a minor chance the LCD changes by then.

Meaningfully higher revenue trajectory
PEB earnt ~NZ$17m in revenue from Medicare in FY24 when it last had coverage for its Triage product. It is likely to take time for Medicare volumes to return to previous highs, particularly given its meaningfully reduced US salesforce, but the ~+75% higher price of Triage Plus (US$1,328, not covered previously) versus Triage (US$760) should be a tailwind to future Medicare revenue. While Triage Plus doesn't have American Urological Association (AUA) guideline inclusion today, this positive coverage decision should allow PEB to transition a large share of Medicare volumes to Triage Plus in a relatively short time period.

A lower cash burn but not yet breakeven
PEB is prioritising profitability rather than growth at all costs, so we expect a gradual increase in its US salesforce from current levels (~seven) rather than rapid growth back to the >30-person headcount last time PEB had coverage. PEB's FY26 exit cost base was ~NZ$40m–NZ$45m; we expect modest growth from this level as lab volumes and its salesforce grow, but for its EBITDA losses to narrow each year. With PEB's oversubscribed capital raise (likely now >NZ$30m versus the NZ$24m expectation), and an earlier-than-expected coverage decision, PEB's capital outlook is better than expected, but we believe very strong Medicare test volumes and solid cost control would still be needed to avoid the need for more capital before PEB reaches breakeven.

[Basil]

PEB's investment case now returns to clinical adoption, revenue growth, and execution rather than the binary coverage outcome that has overshadowed it for the past four years. Revenue growth was solid when PEB last had coverage, but its EBITDA losses expanded as its investment behind this growth was greater. This time, revenue growth will need to be strong without a meaningful cost increase.

If its any good why aren't the local DHB's using it ?  In my own brush with the prospect of bladder cancer many years ago I asked the Urologist why they aren't using it and she said that you simply cannot beat sticking a camera up there and having a look.

Very recently I've been supporting my best mate who passed blood in his urine and ended up getting a huge 5 cm cancer growth removed from his bladder.  Its been a two year journey with so many cystoscopy's he's lost count and thankfully he has just been given the all clear but there is an established program of follow up inspections.  Importantly at no point has it ever been mentioned or suggested that he will be using a biomarker such as PEB's test in any aspect of his treatment or follow up checking.

From my own personal experience, (I doubt many shareholders have this personal experience to draw upon), and supporting my mate a lot over the last two years in his experience I suspect clinical adoption will be a LOT slower than many shareholders would like and ongoing cash burn a lot higher.  Its not a cheap test nor is it 100% reliable by any stretch of the imagination.    PEB have it all ahead of them in the years ahead to prove they can become firstly, cash flow break even and then secondly, generate real and consistent earnings.

It could me many years, if ever before PEB can prove they can generate real earnings on a much expanded cost base.  I think the company is best described as still being highly speculative.

[Pierre]

Sorry to hear that you and your mate have been/are dealing with bladder cancer.

Many District Health Boards do use Cxbladder.
Here's what Gemini says:

New Zealand public healthcare providers have been adopting Pacific Edge's non-invasive bladder cancer tests since MidCentral DHB became the first to utilize it in 2013. Over the years, the technology's coverage has expanded across multiple regions.
Key Details & Coverage
Regional Access: Regions including Canterbury, Waitematā, Counties Manukau, Capital & Coast (Wellington), Taranaki, and Northland have formally adopted the suite of tests into their standard of care.
Testing Pathway: The tests are used to triage patients presenting with microhematuria (blood in the urine) and to monitor for the recurrence of bladder cancer.
Patient Benefit: Testing allows healthcare providers to assess risk via a non-invasive urine sample, helping many patients avoid the discomfort and cost of a cystoscopy.More than half of the New Zealand population has access to the test.

[LoungeLizard]

If its any good why aren't the local DHB's using it ?  In my own brush with the prospect of bladder cancer many years ago I asked the Urologist why they aren't using it and she said that you simply cannot beat sticking a camera up there and having a look.

Very recently I've been supporting my best mate who passed blood in his urine and ended up getting a huge 5 cm cancer growth removed from his bladder.  Its been a two year journey with so many cystoscopy's he's lost count and thankfully he has just been given the all clear but there is an established program of follow up inspections.  Importantly at no point has it ever been mentioned or suggested that he will be using a biomarker such as PEB's test in any aspect of his treatment or follow up checking.

From my own personal experience, (I doubt many shareholders have this personal experience to draw upon), and supporting my mate a lot over the last two years in his experience I suspect clinical adoption will be a LOT slower than many shareholders would like and ongoing cash burn a lot higher.  Its not a cheap test nor is it 100% reliable by any stretch of the imagination.    PEB have it all ahead of them in the years ahead to prove they can become firstly, cash flow break even and then secondly, generate real and consistent earnings.

It could me many years, if ever before PEB can prove they can generate real earnings on a much expanded cost base.  I think the company is best described as still being highly speculative.

DHB's are using CXBladder -at last count I think over half are using it covering over 60% of the population. It is being rolled out progressively so I would expect all will make it available at some point.

A cystoscopy is still the gold standard and CXBladder is not designed to replace it. It is simply a screening tool to prevent unnecessary cystoscopies. Rather like the PSA test to detect prostate cancer.

[Basil]

Sorry to hear that you and your mate have been/are dealing with bladder cancer.

Thanks mate, it was a long time ago for me, about 15 years ago from vague memory.

A cystoscopy is still the gold standard and CXBladder is not designed to replace it. It is simply a screening tool to prevent unnecessary cystoscopies. Rather like the PSA test to detect prostate cancer.

Indeed, although deeply uncomfortable, especially with a pretty young trainee watching, (it was never smaller if you know what I mean), I was very grateful to promptly have the gold standard inspection and got a clear result.   I'm surprised it was never mentioned as an option for my friend either.  We both commenced with the same issue albeit at different times in our lives, blood in the urine.  I've been very impressed with the thoroughness and timeliness of the treatment's my friend has received in the public health system and thankfully he's come through the journey well.   A 5 cm growth in your bladder is huge and it was an incredibly stressful experience for him.  Anyone who's supported a close friend through a cancer journey knows its quite exhausting for support people too.

His and my experience makes me genuinely wonder where the PEB test fits into the local DHB system, (and what the uptake rate will be with US healthcare providers), as its not a cheap test like a blood test for PSA and of course a blood test covers off a huge range of other risk factors.  I just haven;t seen the use of it in real world conditions and can't see how such an expensive test is really useful relative to the cost of a cystoscopy, (which at the time I had mine done I asked the Urologist and she said they are working on an all inclusive cost of $NZ1,500), it could be considerably more now.

[Poet]

Thanks mate, it was a long time ago for me, about 15 years ago from vague memory.
Indeed, although deeply uncomfortable, especially with a pretty young trainee watching, (it was never smaller if you know what I mean), I was very grateful to promptly have the gold standard inspection and got a clear result.   I'm surprised it was never mentioned as an option for my friend either.  We both commenced with the same issue albeit at different times in our lives, blood in the urine.  I've been very impressed with the thoroughness and timeliness of the treatment's my friend has received in the public health system and thankfully he's come through the journey well.   A 5 cm growth in your bladder is huge and it was an incredibly stressful experience for him.  Anyone who's supported a close friend through a cancer journey knows its quite exhausting for support people too.

His and my experience makes me genuinely wonder where the PEB test fits into the local DHB system, (and what the uptake rate will be with US healthcare providers), as its not a cheap test like a blood test for PSA and of course a blood test covers off a huge range of other risk factors.  I just haven;t seen the use of it in real world conditions and can't see how such an expensive test is really useful relative to the cost of a cystoscopy, (which at the time I had mine done I asked the Urologist and she said they are working on an all inclusive cost of $NZ1,500), it could be considerably more now.

I listened to the CMS coverage public hearing earlier in the year. One thing thing that stuck with me was that at least two of the clinicians made the point that something like 90% of patients presenting with haematuria never went anywhere near a urologist - especially women. This was for various reasons, shortage of urolgists, geographical location etc etc. The point being that the biggest opportunity for PEB technology isn't competing with cytoscopy -it is competing with doing nothing - and that is a huge market opening IMO. DYOR of course but I've taken a big position and will look forward to some nice dividends in due course.

[Basil]

This was for various reasons, shortage of urolgists, geographical location etc etc.

Not sure this holds water. This suggests the US healthcare system is in worse shape than the N.Z. which seems incredibly unlikely to me other than the fact that we have a public system and they don't so cost could be a serious factor in the US for the average American so I asked A.I. what is the average cost for a cystoscopy procedure in the US and here's the answer

The cost of a cystoscopy procedure in the USA typically ranges from $1,000 to $3,000.

That's not materially different to the cost of the PEB test so I'm not convinced.  Any intelligent person knows you're better off with the gold standard warrant of fitness inspection...but then again, maybe there's lots of unintelligent people in the US, that's definitely a plausible explanation seeing as they voted "Chump" into power for a second time.  Agree, a lot of people do nothing when blood presents in the urine or take antibiotics and hope its just a urinary track infection but doing something further means making a choice between a very expensive urine marker test or a cystoscopy.  I'm not convinced the uptake of a urinary biomarker is the go to option and the reason is the not inconsiderable cost.  If it was a few hundred dollars compared to a cystoscopy that cost ten times that much I would be convinced but clearly we're very far from that being the case.