PEB-Pacific Edge

[LoungeLizard]

I'm not surprised that so far today PEB retail investors have been able to purchase more shares below the 10c price paid by Institutes.

Interesting also is the timing of the retail offer as outlined below.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/452692

"Pacific Edge is now targeting the opening of a NZ$5 million offer to eligible retail investors by way of a Share Purchase Plan (SPP) at the same NZ$0.10 cents per share offer price in July or early August 2025 (with the ability to accept oversubscriptions). A shareholder meeting to approve the Placement is planned for late July or early August 2025."

Why late July or August?  Perhaps PEB is hoping for good news to drive the SP north of 10c before that time?

Yes, good point regarding the long lead in time to the SPP. Bit of a gamble charging a premium to the current price, if PEB are  not confident of the SP going north in the interim.

[Poet]

Yes, good point regarding the long lead in time to the SPP. Bit of a gamble charging a premium to the current price, if PEB are  not confident of the SP going north in the interim.

Even more of a problem if PEB regains medicaid coverage before the PEB shareholder vote on the cap raise. Institutions have committed to participating in the cap raise but need to wait for shareholder approval first (July/August). Presumably the shareholders won't vote for the cap raise if the coverage determination has come through in the meantime.
Effectively PEB have a PUT option for $16m (at 10c) for the next couple of months. An unusual situation IMO

[Poet]

I like this from the July Shareholder update:

On June 26, 2025 (US time) we met with Novitas6
Medical Affairs to discuss the reconsideration request we
had made for Triage in March. The conversations were
thorough and engaging, with the Novitas team noting
that they had familiarized themselves with the AUA
microhematuria guideline ahead of our call. The Novitas
team made it clear that they understood how our test
could deliver clinical utility to physicians and economic
utility to insurers and expressed their commitment to
provide medically reasonable and necessary testing
to the Medicare population. They discussed with us
the precise indications for coverage, focused on how
physicians select patients for Triage testing. The 2020
and 2025 AUA Guidelines, the Kaiser Abstract from the
AUA, and our STRATA publication clearly identify those
patient types, and Novitas gave a non-binding verbal
indication that our evidence was compelling for the
purposes of re-opening the LCD.
 We have a second meeting with Novitas on July 17
to discuss the reconsideration request for Cxbladder
Monitor that we submitted in May, and we look forward to
submitting a request later this year for Medicare coverage
of Triage Plus, when the Analytical Validation (published
8 July 2025 online in Diagnostics7) and Clinical Validation
(DRIVE study, in peer review) are published. We note that
the Medicare Program Integrity Manual allows Novitas
to combine reconsideration requests together when
opening an LCD and overlapping submissions may affect
the previously estimated timelines.

[Greekwatchdog]

Market likes the update on opening

[LoungeLizard]

Market likes the update on opening

Yes, it looks promising that even without coverage the numbers haven't reduced dramatically. And it does sound that Triage has a very good chance of gaining reapproval on resubmission. Coupled with the significant increase in the CMS reimbursement price to $1018 per test, I remain optimistic that shareholders will be handsomely rewarded for their (considerable) patience!

[Pierre]

Market likes the update on opening

This is good news for the upcoming SPP too. If the SP holds around the current level, the $5 million is likely to be well oversubscribed - and they will probably take all the cash they are offered.

[Left Field]

Just shows how little I know....... I wasn't that impressed by the update..... but the market likes it, so I'm happy.

[Greekwatchdog]

Just shows how little I know....... I wasn't that impressed by the update..... but the market likes it, so I'm happy.

I think its more to do with the commentary surrounding Novitas.

Personally I thinks its a given they regain coverage by year end, then we are dealing with Amercians...Hmm.

[LoungeLizard]

Novitas does seem to be strongly indicating that coverage will be reinstated in due course, however long that may be. Two very positive meetings where they  seem to have finally acquainted themselves with all the evidence and AUA guidelines plus this very encouraging statement:

"...and Novitas gave a non-binding verbal indication that our evidence was compelling for the purposes of re-opening the LCD."

There's still a volume of water to pass under the bridge but I wonder if we are at the point when the stars really start to align for PEB. Time will tell, but I see this update as being very encouraging. Market seems to like it, up 10% at one point.

[raW tent Buffer]

Quick question - I sold all my PEB shares today (pretty much break even). I used the proceeds to apply for the SPP, basically for an extra 15k shares on top of what I sold.

Are there any actual risks with this other than me being scaled down so I don't get all the shares I ask for? It seems weird to me why people are buying shares at 10.7c?

I did it with the view that they need all the cash they can get so are unlikely to turn down oversubscription so it's effectively more shares for nothing. Or am I missing something here?

[LoungeLizard]

Quick question - I sold all my PEB shares today (pretty much break even). I used the proceeds to apply for the SPP, basically for an extra 15k shares on top of what I sold.

Are there any actual risks with this other than me being scaled down so I don't get all the shares I ask for? It seems weird to me why people are buying shares at 10.7c?

I did it with the view that they need all the cash they can get so are unlikely to turn down oversubscription so it's effectively more shares for nothing. Or am I missing something here?

Nothing wrong with that as far as I can tell, although for just an extra 15k shares I am wondering whether it is worth the effort? But you're right, I can't see them turning down oversubscription, so you should be pretty safe.

I guess people who didn't own shares at the 11 July might be buying in now at 10.7c, based on the latest announcement regarding discussions with Novitas? Although the volumes indicate that maybe the Insto's are further topping up as well.

There does seem to be a good deal of support on market and for the SPP. I think it really is a case of when, rather than if, Novitas resume coverage, in which case anyone buying in now on or off market stands to make a pretty penny.

[raW tent Buffer]

Nothing wrong with that as far as I can tell, although for just an extra 15k shares I am wondering whether it is worth the effort? But you're right, I can't see them turning down oversubscription, so you should be pretty safe.

I guess people who didn't own shares at the 11 July might be buying in now at 10.7c, based on the latest announcement regarding discussions with Novitas? Although the volumes indicate that maybe the Insto's are further topping up as well.

There does seem to be a good deal of support on market and for the SPP. I think it really is a case of when, rather than if, Novitas resume coverage, in which case anyone buying in now on or off market stands to make a pretty penny.

Cheers for that. It was very easy to do and yeah not much but just seemed silly not to. Interested to see where the SP goes after the placement.

[Greekwatchdog]

I have submitted my application to add 50% assuming its accepted in full. They key for me is the inclusion of AUA guidelines as this was the main catalyst to drive commercial success including all the evidence that they are putting together via STRATA and what has already been published.

It will be an interesting ASM next week (6th Aug) By then the CR offer will have closed so perhaps we get more info on how the 2nd meeting with Novitas went and maybe more updated on new commercial contracts (John Hopkins is major one for me as its been looked at since late 2019)

As always DYOR.

[LoungeLizard]

I have submitted my application to add 50% assuming its accepted in full. They key for me is the inclusion of AUA guidelines as this was the main catalyst to drive commercial success including all the evidence that they are putting together via STRATA and what has already been published.

It will be an interesting ASM next week (6th Aug) By then the CR offer will have closed so perhaps we get more info on how the 2nd meeting with Novitas went and maybe more updated on new commercial contracts (John Hopkins is major one for me as its been looked at since late 2019)

As always DYOR.

I've applied for another 10% - I already hold far more than is sensible!

Agreed - the potential of a major swing upwards outweighs the chances of SP falling further.
"It's worth the stretch," - as De Niro said in Heat when contemplating a bank robbery. Mind you, that didn't work out well...

[Greekwatchdog]

I've applied for another 10% - I already hold far more than is sensible!

Agreed - the potential of a major swing upwards outweighs the chances of SP falling further.
"It's worth the stretch," - as De Niro said in Heat when contemplating a bank robbery. Mind you, that didn't work out well...

LOL yeah, but PEB don't have to worry about Pacino this time as they have already gone thru that and have em by the short and curlys!