PEB-Pacific Edge

[LoungeLizard]

I agree about PSA tests - they are no brainer to have done once a year - and they are free. But if you have private medical care or in this case medicare/ medicaid then CXBladder would be free as well.

I guess my point is that CXBladder wasn't designed to replace a cystoscopy. They work in tandem - Cxbladder screens out a segment of the population who have signs of hematuria but is not serious - eg a urinary infection treatable with antibiotics. If there was no screening then everybody has to have a cystoscopy whether it was needed or warranted or not. That's bad for the patient and clogs up the medical system.

Medical Biomarking, I believe is still the way forward for many diseases. It really is hard to tell now whether PEB have a good product or not. I don't trust the US medical system - it's inefficient and there's an unhealthy relationship between providers and health authorities and hospitals themselves. This could be political all we know - the medical establishment protecting its own. It will be fascinating to see how it plays out. There could be a twist in the tale yet and maybe Winner is right - at 5c it might be worth a flutter???

[Basil]

Thanks LoungeLizard, I respect your point of view.
For what its worth, if I remember correctly and I am not sure I do, I think it was about $400 for the CX Bladder test about a decade ago.  Whether it's worth that or just having the cystoscopy for about $1,500, (again a decade or so ago money so will be more now), is something the various DHB's appear to have differing opinions on.  All I can say is I am glad I had quick access to the procedure giving a definitive answer to my condition at the time and even more glad it hasn't presented as a problem again.

The market seems to think PEB may possibly have a future but it's definitely not for me.    I hope it works out for shareholders.


P.S. For what it's worth I note the company had $53m in operating expenses last year.  If they are going to start issuing legal challenges, I would think that will make a separate major dent in available funds such that including legal costs they probably have somewhere around about 1 year, perhaps a little longer to make the case to shareholders why they should remain in business.  If they can convince the market they have a viable road to travel going forward, this will almost certainly require yet another capital raise.    Biotech companies are in my opinion, extremely risky.

[LoungeLizard]

Thanks LoungeLizard, I respect your point of view.
For what its worth, if I remember correctly and I am not sure I do, I think it was about $400 for the CX Bladder test about a decade ago.  Whether it's worth that or just having the cystoscopy for about $1,500, (again a decade or so ago money so will be more now), is something the various DHB's appear to have differing opinions on.  All I can say is I am glad I had quick access to the procedure giving a definitive answer to my condition at the time and even more glad it hasn't presented as a problem again.

Real glad it all worked out for you Basil. Cystoscopy will always be the gold standard - just a question whether there's a profitable space for CXBladder, or other bio marking outfits, to occupy in the near future. I think there is but maybe not in the timeframe that most investors would like

The market seems to think PEB may possibly have a future but it's definitely not for me.    I hope it works out for shareholders.

[Shareguy]

In terms of trading yesterday the shares fell from 49.5cps the prior day to an intra-day low of 5cps, they rallied as high as 16cps before closing at 10.9cps with 25m shares trading hands .... That's just 3% of the c810m shares on issue. The carnage left PEB with a market cap of $88m at the end of the day ... broadly in line with the net cash on its Balance Sheet of $78m (albeit cash-burn is estimated at c$30m for 2H23).

Today we have bugger all traded (6.2m)which says to me that the big players are thinking there might be some life in this company yet.

Have 10 cents a share in cash.

[Basil]

No doubt all the executives earning the big bucks won't want to give up without a fight.  Goes without saying most will have families to support so they're not going to roll over and play dead like an old Labrador, even if the company has its own form of bladder cancer in terms of the viability of their operation.

I expect a real dog and pony show over the next year as they scramble to try and build a case for survival and then another case as to why they deserve even more shareholder support in yet another capital raise. How I see it is that if people are gullible enough to keep tipping money down this black hole...

[Shareguy]

You cannot view this attachment.

Current holders as of last Friday

[Shareguy]

Here is David Darlings last disclosure that I can find.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/391172/369462.pdf

[Teitei]

Here is David Darlings last disclosure that I can find.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/391172/369462.pdf

Here is David Darlings last disclosure that I can find.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/391172/369462.pdf

Be very surprising if DD still hold any PEB shares. 

He would still be holding some of the options but they would be worthless at current prices.

We should not begrudge him taking 'tens of hundreds of thousands of dollars' from selling the shares. He has single-handedly raised many millions of dollars to keep PEB going. 

[winner (n)]

Be very surprising if DD still hold any PEB shares. 

He would still be holding some of the options but they would be worthless at current prices.

We should not begrudge him taking 'tens of hundreds of thousands of dollars' from selling the shares. He has single-handedly raised many millions of dollars to keep PEB going. 

David got PEB to where it is today ...took a while.

Remember that venture he was leading before he joined PEB ..........Arborgen still struggling to make a buckneven though Dave left 20 years ago

Maybe an indication of where the future of PEB is heading

[Red Baron]

Be very surprising if DD still hold any PEB shares. 

He would still be holding some of the options but they would be worthless at current prices.

We should not begrudge him taking 'tens of hundreds of thousands of dollars' from selling the shares. He has single-handedly raised many millions of dollars to keep PEB going. 

Rearrange the letters to understand the true meaning.

'David Darling'  = 'Ad driving lad'

Seems appropriate for one charged vith raising vunds vrom the public?

RB

[Crackity]

Rearrange the letters to understand the true meaning.

'David Darling'  = 'Ad driving lad'

Seems appropriate for one charged vith raising vunds vrom the public?

RB

D Darling also rearranges to raddling


to twist together : interweave
raddled; raddling. transitive verb. : to twist together : interweave.


He was a true master of those NZX announcements 

[snapiti]

I am not sure what it is about PEB but everytime I think about it I want to go and do number two's

[Shareguy]

Craig's latest

It is worth noting that we think PEB has a strong management team and a good product and, notwithstanding Novitas' view, our view on the clinical efficacy of Cxbladder has not changed.


Medicare coverage rescinded
This week PEB announced that Medicare insurance coverage, which accounts for 77% of revenue would cease entirely from 17 July 2023. The key reason for cessation is a lack of clinical studies demonstrating that Cxbladder improves patient outcomes. In our initiation last June we highlighted deficiencies in PEB's previously published clinical studies, though we have been pleased by recent progress, with higher quality data expected over the next few years. This week's announcement is a heavy blow and we think it has set commercialisation back 4+ years (though fortunately there is no impact to revenues from Kaiser Permanente). It is worth noting that we think PEB has a strong management team and a good product and, notwithstanding Novitas' view, our view on the clinical efficacy of Cxbladder has not changed. We see this as validated by: (i) top-tier accuracy metrics and (ii) insurance coverage and rollout from Kaiser, which we note was based on comprehensive health economics studies demonstrating the economic value of Cxbladder.
Medicare coverage could be re-instated by FY26
In tandem with cash conservation measures, PEB is examining multiple strategies to fill the hole left by Medicare (see p.3). So far we think the best approach is to re-apply for Medicare coverage using data from the Strata study, due to be published in 2025, which we expect will be sufficient for Cxbladder to be included in the key NCCN guidelines (one of the two conditions for Cxbladder to recover Medicare coverage), with potential for Medicare coverage to be re-instated from late FY26. However it may take longer for PEB to provide evidence to satisfy Novitas' other concerns (p.4). On p.6-7 we model a base and bear scenario based on reinstatement in FY26 and FY28 respectively. While PEB has $78m of cash, even in our base case scenario we estimate PEB will need an additional $44m of equity by FY27.
All hope is not lost...retain Neutral
We value PEB at a blended TP of $0.17 (-69%), based on a blended average of a base case ($0.21), bear case ($0.17) and estimate of the trade sale value of the Kaiser contract ($0.14). We see some valuation support provided by at $0.10 net cash per share, although this will likely be used to fund operations over coming years. This week's dramatic fall could present an opportunity for those investors with a very high risk tolerance.

Disc. Absolute punt and maybe the 3rd mistake, but added to my position yesterday.

[BlackPeter]

..

Disc. Absolute punt and maybe the 3rd mistake, but added to my position yesterday.

Who knows.

However - just considering that they have a long and consistent streak in successfully fleecing shareholders without giving anything back at any point in time ... I recon that the beagles motto "the past is the best indicator for the future" might be worthwhile to consider in this specific context.

But sure - ripples come and ripples go - and some (but not many) people make money as well in the casino without owning the bank.

I think however that the odds as well as the girls (and the guys, just to stay PC) and the bar look better in the casino, i.e. if I have the urge to gamble I would go there.

But anyway - all the best.

[Basil]

The thing with gambling at the Casino is, you know they take a certain margin, on a roulette wheel with one zero its 1/37 = 2.7%
How I see this, is with some companies' management, staff and directors, combined, they are taking a 100% margin and you simply cannot win.
I'm calling it, there is no way this company will EVER be profitable and that makes it univestable in my book.
Of course, the brokers will tell you otherwise...with their legal disclaimers around risk prominently presented in their reports and capital raise documents...but they would say that wouldn't they to continue their rich gravy train of regular large feeds from underwriting and placement fees. 
There's no point waiting for the maggots to appear out of this corporate carcass when its clear its already dead. 
Of course the brokers will try and keep it on life support with yet another capital raise...(there have been so many over the years I have lost count), for quite obvious reasons lol
Forbar already saying they need another capital raise putting their hand up yet again..,