Broker and Fund Manager picks for 2026

[Basil]

Its that time of year again when we need to think about our best prospects for next year.
paywalled.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/personal-finance/investment/top-broker-stock-picks-for-2026-the-nzx-companies-analysts-back-to-recover/premium/BRA7JYSKIZH5DMLFLN6RGA2QQM/

Brokers and fund managers picks for 2026 are in that article, if you're interested.  Should you be following their advice is a very good question ?
How did they go in 2025 you might be wondering....oh dear, on average it was a disaster.  An average of the 5 brokers and professional fund managers would have given a return all inclusive including dividends, (but before brokerage or funds management costs) of minus 3.3%.

That compares with the benchmark I use of the S&P500 which is up just over 16%.
Even comparing these experts picks with the anemic NZX50 which was up just over 3% means that after brokerage or fund manager fees the average investor would be more than 7% better off just going with a NZX50 ETF or just on 21% better off going with an S&P500 ETF.

How did the "experts" picks compare with the medium performance of share trader's picks in the competition for 2025 on the other forum ?  (Keep in mind the experts had the luxury of picking overseas stocks whereas those in the sharetrader competitor did not).  The mid-point contestants position 96 and 97, returned 14.7 and 14.8% respectively, outperforming all the experts except Salt and outperforming the average investment professional by a whopping 18%, approx 19% outperformance if you factor in brokerage of funds management fees.  WOW, that's breathtaking.

My goodness, that's a very sad indictment on the abilities of the average "professional" investment advisor in N.Z. in 2025 isn't it !
Perhaps even more interestingly, the average share trader stock picker at 14.7% limited to the NZX outperformed the NZX50 by about 11% !
I think anyone who achieved more than the S&P500 index of about 16% for the year can give themselves a good pat on the back and feel very content with their stock picking performance for 2025.

[snapiti]

Its that time of year again when we need to think about our best prospects for next year.
paywalled.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/personal-finance/investment/top-broker-stock-picks-for-2026-the-nzx-companies-analysts-back-to-recover/premium/BRA7JYSKIZH5DMLFLN6RGA2QQM/

Brokers and fund managers picks for 2026 are in that article, if you're interested.  Should you be following their advice is a very good question ?
How did they go in 2025 you might be wondering....oh dear, on average it was a disaster.  An average of the 5 brokers and professional fund managers would have given a return all inclusive including dividends, (but before brokerage or funds management costs) of minus 3.3%.

That compares with the benchmark I use of the S&P500 which is up just over 16%.
Even comparing these experts picks with the anemic NZX50 which was up just over 3% means that after brokerage or fund manager fees the average investor would be more than 7% better off just going with a NZX50 ETF or just on 21% better off going with an S&P500 ETF.

How did the "experts" picks compare with the medium performance of share trader's picks in the competition for 2025 on the other forum ?  (Keep in mind the experts had the luxury of picking overseas stocks whereas those in the sharetrader competitor did not).  The mid-point contestants position 96 and 97, returned 14.7 and 14.8% respectively, outperforming all the experts except Salt and outperforming the average investment professional by a whopping 18%, approx 19% outperformance if you factor in brokerage of funds management fees.  WOW, that's breathtaking.

My goodness, that's a very sad indictment on the abilities of the average "professional" investment advisor in N.Z. in 2025 isn't it !
Perhaps even more interestingly, the average share trader stock picker at 14.7% limited to the NZX outperformed the NZX50 by about 11% !
I think anyone who achieved more than the S&P500 index of about 16% for the year can give themselves a good pat on the back and feel very content with their stock picking performance for 2025.

well said Basil, good for all investors to recognize the under performance of most fund managers, not just this year as history shows us it is a common theme.
Have to say though Milford investments funds have provided returns well ahead of the average fund manager, this is also a repetitive theme, a big thanks to there team
Now anyone who follows Basil will know he likes to shuffle his portfolio round, a very smart dog he is   

[Basil]

You're far too kind mate, I'm just a greedy Beagle following his nose for a feed and now well and truly overfed especially after Christmas lunch yesterday lol.  Shuffling things around doesn't always work, (usually does).  My sharetrader competition picks with no changes allowed, up 41.5% slightly outperformed my real portfolio this year.  The repeated posts by an active anti mining activist on the other site about Santana eventually spooked me and I sold too early.

[Dolcile]

It has been a great year with the vast majority of my portfolio is sitting in a fund that tracks the sp500. 

I've also done very well out of Turners, HLG and Tower on the NZX. 

Also, I got a bit cute and threw a few hundred K at Salt and PIE Funds.  The Salt fund has done really well.  The PIE fund got off to a ripping start but has now given back much of those gains.  I've put an order in to sell the PIE fund and I'm now need to decide where to deploy that cash.

I just wish there were more good options on the NZX. 

[Dolcile]

Basil like you I sold Santana way too early. I couldn't see how the project stacked up against the market cap and the lack of news re the fast track application got to me. 

[Basil]

Is it a coincidence that Salt was the top performer of the professionals in 2025 and 2024 ? I'm inclined to think maybe not.

Thanks Dolcile for sharing links to their monthly reports on their long / short fund. I've been quite impressed with the common sense approach they take. Not ever taking short positions myself, what they're doing might be a useful appendage to my approach at some point in the future.

PIE had a great year up to October. Their performance in the years before that 12 month spurt was only average.

Fisher funds ongoing under performance concerns me. I think they only pay lip service to their stated STEPP process and are paying too much for growth companies and / or keeping companies long after the narrative has fundamentally changed. They seem happy to keep holding in a downturn and do not appear to incorporate  technical analysis in their approach at all.. Specifically, buying more in a confirmed downtrend is usually a flawed strategy but one they seem to use a lot. I only have a handful of Barramundi warrants left and am not holding my breath they will be worth exercising in August.

[Basil]

"I just wish there were more good options on the NZX" Dolcile.
I would argue there are a reasonable number of good companies but almost all of them are already fully priced.

[Arbroath]

The last 2 years have been my 2 best years in a decade with Tower, listed property, and precious metals the biggest contributors...

The broker picks are usually pretty poor as they rarely focus on a stock like Tower which was outside the NZX50 until it's already doubled and then been included...

My best idea for the next 12 months is Sky City but the key to me is never commit more than 10% of your capital in case you are wrong...

[lorraina]

Forsyth Barr

Ebos Group, Port of Tauranga, Oceania Healthcare, Mainfreight, Mastercard

Hamilton Hindin Greene

Ryman Healthcare, Vital Healthcare Property Trust, Freightways, Heartland Group, Alphabet Inc

Amova Asset Management

(formerly Nikko Asset Management) Summerset Group Holdings, Infratil, Spark, Kiwi Property, Bio-Techne

Salt Funds Management

Heartland Group, NZME, Fletcher Building, Ebos Group, CSL

Craigs Investment Partners

Summerset Group Holdings, Freightways, Ebos Group, Mercury NZ, Schneider Electric


PS.
Think 2026 will be a cracker year for me as I have not picked any of the brokers's picks..lol

[HAWKDOG]

I have had a few nzx winners this year.  One fund I like going forward is

ASR - I'm up 48% ytd - should continue up with this commodity surge.

One im watching for 2026 is ERD.  Bottom feeder.

[LoungeLizard]

Brokers and Fund Managers are not good at analysing risk or looking at the big picture and obviously have a vested interest in promoting equities. A bit like banks and property companies endlessly talking up the property market.

Warren Buffet has been a net seller of equities for the last couple of years for good reason - over-valued companies and an over-pumped market. Same applies here, imo. Not the time to trying to squeeze out the last % point of return whilst ignoring risk. Advice for 2026? Tread cautiously. Or go on holiday.       

[BlackPeter]

PS.
Think 2026 will be a cracker year for me as I have not picked any of the brokers's picks..lol

Well yes, their forecasts are as random as everybody elses ... though, random means not always bad ... its random.

From a personal view - I think retirement villages (and they mention SUM, RYM and OCA) will keep firming up, and will HGH. Transport like Mainfreight and FRE typicall do well at the start of a new boom (here is hopeful).

Not sure about the other proposals - some might be lifted with the tide, but nothing special I can see.

Holding (from the above) some retirement stocks (all three, but not equal) and HGH.

[BlackPeter]

Brokers and Fund Managers are not good at analysing risk or looking at the big picture and obviously have a vested interest in promoting equities. A bit like banks and property companies endlessly talking up the property market.

Warren Buffet has been a net seller of equities for the last couple of years for good reason - over-valued companies and an over-pumped market. Same applies here, imo. Not the time to trying to squeeze out the last % point of return whilst ignoring risk. Advice for 2026? Tread cautiously. Or go on holiday.       

Going on holiday is always a good idea. Question is just - where to store the cash?

Actually - this is one of the things the brokers don't seem to worry about. When do we expect the AI bubble to deflate?

[Pierre]

I'm not planning on doing much trading at all in 2026.
I'll be holding all of my larger positions, especially HLG, TRA and TWR for dividend income, and trusting that HGH and the few SPK I still hold show some upside.
Others in my portfolio include FRW, MCY, SUM & SCL and they should do ok too.
I'm looking forward to big things from PEB late in the year. It's my play money investment and will either fly high and give me a lovely bonus or crash and struggle and I'll write it off.
My Aussie holdings are all over the place especially XRO. Currently AUD112, down from a high in the 180s. They only owe me around $5 each so I can wait for their recovery.
An interesting year ahead for New Zealand, and Australia. Good luck to all.

[Shareguy]

I think investors need to understand that the main brokers are generally risk averse with portfolios chosen for stable, lower risk exposure with capital preservation key. They are also based on long term investing not for traders or investors with a higher risk appetite.

Anyway hopefully 2026 will be a good one.