The NZ Economy

[HAWKDOG]

lol this won't end well.  I will agree to disagree and move on.

[BlackPeter]

Nasdaq up more than 6% in the last week. US market indicies have all completed a full V shaped recovery since the war began and the VIX is under 19 yet the war isn't over yet, go figure ?

Just wondered, how stockmarket behaved during the roaring 20ies (well, this was the 1920íes):

Interesting AI summary about the 1920íes:

Key Trends and Dynamics of the 1920s Market
Unprecedented Growth: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose from around 63 in August 1921 to a peak of roughly 381 in September 1929 - only to drop afterwards to nearly 41 (July 1932).
Retail Participation and Speculation: For the first time, large numbers of ordinary Americans invested in the stock market, often driven by the desire for quick wealth.
Buying on Margin (Leverage): The boom was heavily fueled by credit. Investors could purchase stocks by paying as little as 10% of the value in cash and borrowing the remaining 90%.
"New Era" Mentality: Investors widely believed that technological advances had created a "new era" of endless prosperity, leading them to disregard traditional valuation metrics.
Industrial Drivers: Companies in new sectors like automobiles (GM) and radio (RCA) saw massive growth in stock price and, in many cases, revenue.

Some of these things sound quite similar today.

retail participation:
 - Many new investors and many new index funds providing money without really assessing the companies.

the new era mentality:
 - plenty of worth less but highly rated crypto securities
 - many economies so highly leveraged that any decent rise in interest will bankrupt them

industrial drivers:
 - AI being the new technology which will fix everything

Not sure I expect the next really black Friday this or next week (though, never trust Donald), but otherwise - we probably shouldn't be too surprised if it happens over the next couple of years. Markets clearly have no clue about the future ... and if they rise, this just means there is more space for them to drop back ...