The NZ Economy

[Basil]

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/usiran-war-ceasefire-live-updates-donald-trump-israel-11775609271954.html
Oil currently down $15 a barrel and Dow Jones futures up ~ 1,000 points.
Markets seem hopeful this ceasefire will lead to peace.

[Shareguy]

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/usiran-war-ceasefire-live-updates-donald-trump-israel-11775609271954.html
Oil currently down $15 a barrel and Dow Jones futures up ~ 1,000 points.
Markets seem hopeful this ceasefire will lead to peace.

Certainly hope so, but have my doubts. Israel saying excludes Lebanon won't go down well I would have thought. Can't see the US agreeing to the current 10 point plan. 

[Basil]

Iranians wanting to toll the straight of Hormuz at $3.5m per ship.

[HAWKDOG]

Trumps family is making too much coin messing with the price of oil to stop the war. 

A Trump insider opened a $51,000,000 oil short position — hours before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. This guy is now 16 for 16. $170 million in profit. A perfect streak.

[SCOTTY]

The Dow Jones up 1325 points over night. Should be an interesting day 😳

[Shareguy]

Went to my local bakery to feed my Coffee addiction. In the shop were boxes of pie mix and sacks of flour from floor to ceiling. I said to the owner through a gap "what is going on". She told me she had been informed that there is big price increases coming due to the conflict so they ordered up large. $7 for a pie already and nearly $7 for a Coffee. Need to give up, but I won't...

Reminded me of the horrible Covid times.

[Basil]

I know a place where I swear they make the best potato top pies in the world for $5.80 and their vegie quince's are to die for and are only $5 but tops for value and taste is Pam's brand 100 tea bags at New World for $3.29, that's only 3 cents for a cup of refreshing tea.

Saw diesel at the local Z station asking for $3.99.9 per liter yesterday...the economy is going to get strangled if it stays there for long.  Suppose its better than Hong Kong.  Was just watching CNBC and Honk Kong is one of the very dearest places in the world to buy diesel.  Its the equivalent of US$4.50 per liter, that's $NZ7.75 per liter !

[Shareguy]

I know a place where I swear they make the best potato top pies in the world for $5.80 and their vegie quince's are to die for and are only $5 but tops for value and taste is Pam's brand 100 tea bags at New World for $3.29, that's only 3 cents for a cup of refreshing tea.

Saw diesel at the local Z station asking for $3.99.9 per liter yesterday...the economy is going to get strangled if it stays there for long.  Suppose its better than Hong Kong.  Was just watching CNBC and Honk Kong is one of the very dearest places in the world to buy diesel.  Its the equivalent of US$4.50 per liter, that's $NZ7.75 per liter !

I'm a sucker for a good pie. Love them. I heard the CEO of Z talking about over $4 dollars a litre for diesel is coming. It's certainly going to have major consequences for inflation. As yet we haven't seen many disclosures come through either.  Pacific Islands are really struggling with the prices at the moment. Agree we are a lot better off than many.

[Recaster]

The pie, the pinnacle of the culinary ladder - for kiwis.

[Basil]

US markets seem to be taking the strain of geopolitical hostilities in their stride.  Now down only ~ 1% since the war began.  Dow is now positive year to date.  Quite remarkable really.  Hopefully cool heads and common sense prevail with peace negotiations. 

[HAWKDOG]

From what I have read/listened to - no oil tankers have made it through the strait - as of yesterday anyway.

Hard to beat a good pie, reasonable cost as well - the last time i went to subway it was $19 for a veggie sub and a drink.
To be honest we have gone from take out once a week to take out every 4-6 weeks.

I guess this stat indicates we are not the only family reducing take out:

Between November 2023 and early 2026, Wellington experienced a significant contraction in its business sector, with a net loss of 1,578 companies.

[winner (n)]

Hand a chat with an economist the other day and I bought up the subject of the Taylor Rule

With inflation currently say 3.5% and heading 5% plus next year we agreed that the OCR should be about 3.0% soon and 4.5% or even maybe 5.0% next year

How will we cope?

Lucky new RB guv is just as bad as previous ones and this won't happen ...but economy will remain stuffed for years

[Dolcile]

It is a strange world; s&p 500 up over 1.2% today.

[Basil]

Nasdaq up more than 6% in the last week. US market indicies have all completed a full V shaped recovery since the war began and the VIX is under 19 yet the war isn't over yet, go figure ?

[Recaster]

So much money in the system now because of corrupt central banks over the last few decades.

The usual valuation rules don't apply.