Santana Minerals Limited

[Basil]

Fair enough BP, (I was just winding you up a bit late on a Friday afternoon lol). I note your position is mainly an objection to the fast-track process.  You seem to have real doubts the same checks and balances will apply as through a normal consenting process.
Santana seem to be saying that they will still have to go through what amounts to a full consenting process, just that it will be through a focused panel of experts over a defined timeline.  I guess one of your concerns is who those so-called experts are going to be, which is certainly not an unreasonable concern to have because I have learned the word expert can be defined many ways.

To be fair, it's not just Waihi that has performed without major incident.  No other material environmental problems stemming from Gold mines in N.Z. come to mind and I have been investing on the NZX since 1980.

Let's just follow this and see what hoops Santana have to jump through. It will be interesting.  Keep in mind this is just a pure spec play for me and a tiny proportion of my portfolio.  For the record, I'm also a NIMBY and glad this development is not happening near my back yard but it is what it is, and I guess if consented, those on nearby properties are just unlucky they have to carry a degree of contingent risk with no compensation for it.

[teabag]

1:3 split approved, and new SP recognised on NZX - but link/MUFG  haven't updated holding numbers

[Basil]

I'm sure they'll sort it out over the weekend.  I reckon $1 is on the cards.

[Clearasmud]

I'm sure they'll sort it out over the weekend.  I reckon $1 is on the cards.

I sold some of these, doubled my money and bought LRV ,another Goldie, a stock mentioned on the other forum
It was 13c ,shot up to 35c ,I bought some,now it's 69c!
Easiest money ever.
I've just purchased a new stock,another junior goldie with some of the profits.
A gold wag is predicting 9k gold lol.

[Basil]

Gold and silver as commodities up very strongly this year, circa 40%.  I wouldn't rule out the prospect of it continuing much higher as the US currency, long thought of as the world's reserve currency continues to lose credibility from its ever-escalating debt problem, of which neither of the parties seem particularly interested in addressing. 

[Basil]

Quarterly report.  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/440778/attachment/430540/440778-430540.pdf

[Otago K]

Personally have a bit of investment from early days of NZ listing.
They have some Aussie Analysts reviews on their website, latest ones clarify a few points to earlier posts. Will not get too involved to the merits or otherwise of Fast Track Bill but it will account for a 40+ month reduction in date of gold being poured. Don't see the management taking short cuts on any responsibilities.
Speculative yes but sits at ever increasing upsides to last assessments, also ASX requirements negate any assessment beyond first ten years of production. JP Morgan Funds are large early supporters, suspect much of the initial supply was drip fed from the likes of them, plus Management are personally invested at this stage.
Suspect there are plenty of old timer beliefs that there is a lot more in the Rise and Shine than they even knew in their eyes it had.

from the Santana website latest Analyst reporting, earlier Ocean Equities also some merit.  https://www.santanaminerals.com/s/SMIASX-On-the-Fast-Track-100724-r8l7.pdf

hope coherent enough my initial posting on registration, I hope to get a trip to a community weekly event to personally clarify few small matters shortly.

[Basil]

Welcome to the forum Otago K.  Great post, thankyou.

[Otago K]

Latest Santana Minerals website detailed Shaw and Partners analyst reporting. 15 November 2024 around Pre Feasibility Reporting 
https://www.santanaminerals.com/s/CR_DP_SMI_20241115_726628c967664478a57ad26b4e5534b9-4al9.pdf

The PFS adequately addresses all my initial queries to the company, still intend to get to an upcoming community weekly drop-in presentation in the coming weeks though. Further my read on the PFS is it would justify an increased confidence and earlier than initially projected timeline to production to what the market previously knew of.

There is some volatility across both the ASX and NZX listing, think the present pull back is both a matter of supply increased (ASX 18 million and NZX a million offered) coinciding with day 1 and 2 of PFS release. Also potentially some reversal of earlier hype based on spot price increases for gold and day trader activity.

In my current position I am not likely to be a further buyer on market, and am unlikely to sell until I feel the SP is going to allow some reduction in my weighted average per share funds invested.

Couple of risk factors I can not totally dispel are a Greens influenced future regulatory regime, also that Russia massively alters the global supply principally from Siberian mining in the future. Also don't see the present Gold spot prices should be too heavily relied upon in assessing a future miner share valuation which some might have in their mindset at the moment.

[Basil]

Great post Otago K.
My thoughts on the future direction of the gold price are that we have the US running record fiscal deficit's and eventually this must undermine confidence in their currency.  Gold is real and tangible and has been a reliable store of value for thousands of years, most unlike Tulips, goats, venison, cryptocurrency or whatever else is the latest fad that's seen boom and eventual bust over the years.

Mine economics look sound to me and net present value at more than three times current market cap at today's closing price is based only on proven reserves.  Plenty more in the inferred category and currently undiscovered will be found and mined as the life of mine progresses just like has been the case at the Waihi mine.  I think this is an exciting development, one I am very much looking forward to supporting.  I presume they will need a fresh capital raising at some point to fund the initial plant capex and I am happy to support that in addition to my existing modest holding.

[Otago K]

Mine economics look sound to me and net present value at more than three times current market cap at today's closing price is based only on proven reserves.  Plenty more in the inferred category and currently undiscovered will be found and mined as the life of mine progresses just like has been the case at the Waihi mine.  I think this is an exciting development, one I am very much looking forward to supporting.  I presume they will need a fresh capital raising at some point to fund the initial plant capex and I am happy to support that in addition to my existing modest holding.

Yes I could echo your thoughts here, at current spot gold price levels they are now envisaging it would be economic to smelt ore with half the levels of gold they had been projecting 6 months back would be required. On my reading a bit between the lines I wouldn't envisage a very high likelihood of any capital raising for the plant capex, perhaps the sum will be more likely debt funded for 10 months until pay back. May then be in a position to get a maiden dividend late in calendar year 2027.

[BlackPeter]

Yes I could echo your thoughts here, at current spot gold price levels they are now envisaging it would be economic to smelt ore with half the levels of gold they had been projecting 6 months back would be required. On my reading a bit between the lines I wouldn't envisage a very high likelihood of any capital raising for the plant capex, perhaps the sum will be more likely debt funded for 10 months until pay back. May then be in a position to get a maiden dividend late in calendar year 2027.

Anybody able to predict the gold price in 2027? If you look at past charts - it is not a one way street heading upwards ...

[Basil]

Neither is cryptocurrency. Would you rather own Gold with its long proven store of value that dates back thousands of years, something you can feel and touch and that's real or some electronic new currency that's currently the market darling just like Tulips were all the rage hundreds of years ago but are now ostensibly worthless?  No brainer question as far as I am concerned.

[BlackPeter]

Neither is cryptocurrency. Would you rather own Gold with its long proven store of value that dates back thousands of years, something you can feel and touch and that's real or some electronic new currency that's currently the market darling just like Tulips were all the rage hundreds of years ago but are now ostensibly worthless?  No brainer question as far as I am concerned.

Of course its not cryptocurrency - who said (or implied) that?

However - if you look at the gold price over the last 100 years (i.e. including a number of the last really big global crises) - It went up and down. Unless you assume that this changes in future, I am wondering how the people felt who bought the gold at previous peaks and watched several periods with drops of up to 80%.

Just our of interest ... Gold price dropped throughout WW II.

Just imagine you are in 1980, buy gold for US$2500 an ounce and watch it dropping down to US$500 in 2000. Not funny, particularly given that it doesn't even compensate for inflation.

 
You cannot view this attachment.

But absolutely - history does not repeat itself and from now on gold only will go upwards. Will it?

Amendment:
here is the live chart (scroll a bit down) - this makes it easier to see important dates in history and how gold price reacted to them:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

[Basil]

Of course its not cryptocurrency - who said (or implied) that?

Gold v Crypto was a good debate on the world's leading business network, CNBC this morning.
For mine, the important thing is to keep these sorts of speculative bets to a sensible size.
Santana shares and my physical holding of precious metal, namely silver, combined is less than 1.5% of my portfolio allocation.  That's just a hobby sized allocation for me.  You're quite right, both crypto and gold have traded with huge swings in the past so the future is anyone's guess but maybe worth a small punt eh mate