Santana Minerals Limited

[Apollo]

Gold continues to rise making Santana a great investment opportunity.

This article is another perspective we don't see on the investment thread. Momentum is with the miners for now, but the coming election could have a significant effect on SMI not everyone is pro mining and the greenies have been surprisingly quiet so far, from what I read.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360927629/ian-taylor-dear-chris-bishop-not-kind-future-we-should-fast-track

[HAWKDOG]

 

Anyone watching/investing Manuka minerals?   I haven't as I don't agree with mining the ocean floor, but its had quite the debut on the nzx.

[BlackPeter]

Gold continues to rise making Santana a great investment opportunity.

...

Goldprice is basically a measure of global uncertainty. At the moment its high, and goldprice is high. As soon as the bullets really start flying and the fighting teams arrange with whom and against whom to fight, economic risks will drop again and gold price will follow. Just have a look at goldprice before and during WW2.

So - I guess if you invest now with gold already at its highest level into goldmining you are basically saying that you believe gold price will rise for years to come. And sure, its possible, but is it really an investment opportunity or just another high risk gamble?

As soon as Trump, Putin, Xi and some of their followers bite the dust and the US$ effectively lost its currency leadership, things will settle again and notebanks will find better things to store reserves ....

[Apollo]

Goldprice is basically a measure of global uncertainty. At the moment its high, and goldprice is high. As soon as the bullets really start flying and the fighting teams arrange with whom and against whom to fight, economic risks will drop again and gold price will follow. Just have a look at goldprice before and during WW2.

So - I guess if you invest now with gold already at its highest level into goldmining you are basically saying that you believe gold price will rise for years to come. And sure, its possible, but is it really an investment opportunity or just another high risk gamble?

As soon as Trump, Putin, Xi and some of their followers bite the dust and the US$ effectively lost its currency leadership, things will settle again and notebanks will find better things to store reserves ....

SMI is a speculation on the price of gold and I have no idea what the future holds but as gold rises in price companies that produce gold (or will in the future) become better investments as they sell their production at higher prices.

Wouldn't everything tend to be at or near its highest price in dollars terms in an inflationary world?

Didn't gold become a Teir 1 reserve asset in May 2025. If I understand what this means correctly banks can now hold gold as a reserve at 100% of its value rather than 50% making it a more attractive reserve asset to hold for banks.
https://www.usfunds.com/resource/basel-iii-makes-it-official-gold-is-money-again/

Will the USD retain reserve currency status or will the BRICS "unit" become relevant if it does it requires their central banks to have 40% gold backing their currencies which would be a return to a gold standard.

How many billions of dollars is the Federal Reserve printing monthly currently? Will this affect the price of gold and everything else in dollar terms. Is US and Japanese govt debt sustainable and if so does it need inflation to help manage the debt?

Will interest rates rise significantly making holding gold less attractive?

Gold prices can be very volatile so this could all change tomorrow so apologies for suggesting SMI is a great investment opportunity. Surprising the greenies have not already put the kibosh on this project.

If you wanted to point out a more disturbing gold chart I think 1979-1980 the price of gold fell by 50% over a long time and did not regain those 1979 highs until around about when they gave up on fiat currencies and printed during the GFC 2008-2009. Who has over 20 years to wait for a price recovery?

[Basil]

Silver is where the serious money has been made in the last 12 months, it's tripled.

[Raven]

SMI is a speculation on the price of gold and I have no idea what the future holds but as gold rises in price companies that produce gold (or will in the future) become better investments as they sell their production at higher prices.

I'd like to add a caveat to that statement. Any mining stock is speculation on both the commodity price and also the performance and efficiency of the mine itself. Even more so with a miner like SMI who have not yet even begun construction of the mine.

[HAWKDOG]

Goldprice is basically a measure of global uncertainty. At the moment its high, and goldprice is high. As soon as the bullets really start flying and the fighting teams arrange with whom and against whom to fight, economic risks will drop again and gold price will follow. Just have a look at goldprice before and during WW2.

So - I guess if you invest now with gold already at its highest level into goldmining you are basically saying that you believe gold price will rise for years to come. And sure, its possible, but is it really an investment opportunity or just another high risk gamble?

As soon as Trump, Putin, Xi and some of their followers bite the dust and the US$ effectively lost its currency leadership, things will settle again and notebanks will find better things to store reserves ....

IMO - Gold is also where people who think Fiat money is done put there money. the more Fiat money printed the more it devalues - need more fiat money to buy things.  People are buying assets to hedge.

We are in a commodity boom - first gold, then silver - copper  moving, nickel is starting to move, lithium is back up, uranium -  oil like to move soon as well.

Silver has gone up nicely partly due to "you can buy more of it than gold"  and usage for solar panels has increased from 5% to 30% in the last 5 years.

[HAWKDOG]

I'd like to add a caveat to that statement. Any mining stock is speculation on both the commodity price and also the performance and efficiency of the mine itself. Even more so with a miner like SMI who have not yet even begun construction of the mine.

Ignore if you are aware of this but its valuable to be aware of the Lassonde curve when investing in mining companies.

The Lassonde Curve, named after mining investor Pierre Lassonde, is a graph showing a mining project's value journey from discovery (high risk, high excitement) through development (trough of disillusionment/funding), to profitable production (high value), and eventual decline, helping investors understand risks and timing at each stage of a mine's lifecycle. It highlights how early exploration sparks huge interest, but most projects fail, leading to investor apathy, while successful ones eventually reach production value.

Stages of the Lassonde Curve

Concept/Exploration (Discovery Peak): High risk, high reward; speculative excitement, early drilling, land acquisition.

Development/Feasibility (Trough): Value dips as costs rise, projects face technical/permitting hurdles, investors lose interest.

Production (Production Peak): Successful projects generate revenue, confirming resource value and leading to significant value creation.

Decline: Resources deplete, operations wind down, value decreases.


Why it's important

Risk Management:
Helps investors assess risk/reward at different stages.
Investment Timing: Guides entry/exit points for junior mining stocks.
Strategic Tool: Shows how companies navigate from speculative exploration to generating real returns.

[Otago K]

Following is some transcript Ex ODT article today's print edition, Not sounding great regards SMI expectations that what had initially been submitted should shorten the Standard 90 days review not justify extending to 140 days.

"AN Australian mining company's bid to fast-track its Central Otago gold mine has faltered at the first hurdle after government agencies raised significant environmental concerns and lambasted it for poor planning. The agencies said Santana Minerals' bid for a decision to be made in 30 days was unrealistic, the Otago Regional Council (ORC) calling for a 140-day decision-making period."


Sorry too busy in real life to search out justification / basis to what follows, please do your own research,

post 195..
... Momentum is with the miners for now, but the coming election could have a significant effect on SMI not everyone is pro mining and the greenies have been surprisingly quiet so far, from what I read..... 

Post 198

post 198
........ Surprising the greenies have not already put the kibosh on this project......

Actually I'm fairly certain Green Party MPs currently in the house via a televised press conference on parliament grounds Nov / Dec 2025 have made a statement of intent to overturn certain FTA approved applications that include all the mining ones post next election

...... and also the performance and efficiency of the mine itself. Even more so with a miner like SMI who have not yet even begun construction of the mine.....

While you will not know what it is you don't know, some indications are that the pre-strip project will actually be high probability to be relatively simple and quick with the technical data they have already. Anecdotally an ex Otago mine school graduate comments at a BBQ I was attending.  Also if some delays should occur when the smelter plant is ready to go live there is a stack of alluvial tailing from past old timers that had included some richness in their finds to consider for re-processing.

[Left Field]

More info' on recent opposition by various Otago institutions being faced by SML

https://cruxnz.substack.com/p/bendigo-mine-fast-track-application

[OnwardsNupwards]

the ORC memo is good at listing at what it sees are the big issues.  https://www.fasttrack.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/19115/Memorandum-for-Otago-Regional-Council-BOGP-Convener-Conference-FTAA-2507-1089_signed-16-Jan-2026.pdf  see paras 13-38. and esp. from 21.  ORC says there is "a relatively large number of principal issues in contention".

the big issues from its perspective fall under the headings of: "Engineering and natural hazards", "Water modelling (quality and quantity) and groundwater effects", "Water quality and aquatic ecology", and to a lesser extent "Wetlands" & "Terrestrial ecology" seem like lesser issues.  Helpfully, ORC says it "...expects that potential air quality effects are likely to be manageable with diligent application of mitigation measures and suitably robust consent conditions".  Landscape and bond also seem not too contentious.

I'm not sure conservation issues are that critical since the proposed mine is on privately owned land. 

but overall, my impression is that despite submitting 9000 pages there is a lot of work for SMI still to do.  the approval process looks hard and may not be fast.

GLTAH

[Otago K]

From the Sanatana website latest Blue Oceans Analysts Equity Research valuation is in, I note the date they have based an increased likelihood of FTA approval being positively determined at around June 2026.
https://www.santanaminerals.com/equity-research

That June date actually being ahead of perhaps what SMI have now conceded would likely be late October 2026, https://www.nzx.com/announcements/467015    also I'm mindful the general election is set for about a week or two later, and what chance the Greens have a ability to rescind some mining approvals under FTA regime as they have indicated in late 2026 television media they will sought to do once elected to power. For me the gold is there, but the previous negatives to be resolved first are still just as indeterminable as to timeframe and further conditions imposed so it's still with some risk beyond what I feel some foresee.

[Basil]

I agree. For the mine to go ahead they not only need approval under the FTA process but also a National lead coalition to win the election.
Even if these two independent events are 60% probability each of occurring, the combined chance of both occurring is only 36%.
If they're each two thirds chance of happening that's still only a 44% chance of both happening.
In my opinion there's only a very small chance a lunatic left coalition would allow the FTA ruling to stand if it's positive.
Then there's the chance of appeals, a judicial review or even possible treaty claims
Putting all this together I reckon the chance of the mine ever getting into production is 50/50 at best. Too much risk for my liking .

[Left Field]

Sam Niell's recent video  take on the SMI mining proposal

https://bendigo.nz/?fbclid=IwY2xjawQBvIVleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETJ1S1R2bHoydTBBVXh0N0Y5c3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHoWQ52IbFvgRIQqj9iifkxStGQmZ7hiTwypdssJ6YEou-_4Z8-T3I7YjWomJ_aem_ADUo9W9k1T4lOL1RB1AOyw

[BlackPeter]

Sam Niell's recent video  take on the SMI mining proposal

https://bendigo.nz/?fbclid=IwY2xjawQBvIVleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETJ1S1R2bHoydTBBVXh0N0Y5c3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHoWQ52IbFvgRIQqj9iifkxStGQmZ7hiTwypdssJ6YEou-_4Z8-T3I7YjWomJ_aem_ADUo9W9k1T4lOL1RB1AOyw

Interesting. Mining dams need to stay forever - and their actual breakagerate is higher than the breakrate of e.g. water dams.

Ah yes, and if they do break? Well, all the stuff in the tailing dam which isn't good for the environment will go somewhere. No matter whether this is in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years or say in 10,000 years.

Sounds like an amazing investment into NZ's future, doesn't it?