STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[lorraina]

Their presentation reads well.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/406675/388494.pdf

[Clearasmud]

Not a lot of turnover today suggests to me that the market is ok with the result.

There is no way anyone can sugar coat this result.  It's bloody awful.
Significant decline in eps and the dividend.  This pup is a recidivist offender when it comes to serious disappointments.

If they matc

There is no way anyone can sugar coat this result.  It's bloody awful.
Significant decline in eps and the dividend.  This pup is a recidivist offender when it comes to serious disappointments.

If they match last year's dividend effort its still 11% gross at today's price, $1.32
Still our hopes of 14c this year are dashed.

[lorraina]

I will be more than happy with any yield near or over 9% gross.
Maintaining 11% would be outstanding.
Pleased the divie is now imputed.

[Basil]

If they can pay a 4 cent final divvy fully imputed  that puts them on a gross yield of 8.4%.
Who knows if they can maintain that in the years ahead?

[Clearasmud]

If they can pay a 4 cent final divvy fully imputed  that puts them on a gross yield of 8.4%.
Who knows if they can maintain that in the years ahead?

The previous 2 years the final dividend was higher than the interim. Let's hope.

[Shareguy]

Fbar say

Steel and Tube (STU) reported a tidy 1H23 result which was in line with our expectations. Challenging macro conditions saw volumes decline over the first half but this was more than offset by pricing gains.

FY23 divi 10c
EPS 15
PE 8.9 at $1.32
Gross yield 10.5 percent

[Hectorplains]

Their presentation reads well.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/STU/406675/388494.pdf

2H23 Market Outlook
Challenging macro trends expected to continue; following prolonged 'super cycle',
steel demand is now expected to moderate
Trading conditions:
• Challenging macro trends expected to continue – inflation and higher interest rates,
tight labour market and the ongoing impact from Covid
• Following prolonged 'super cycle', steel demand is now expected to moderate;
easing activity already occurring in residential construction
• Steel pricing stabilising above pre-Covid levels during 1H although in December and
January international prices have firmed in NZ dollars

Reads like the best is over... like a hold at best. 

[Fiordland Moose]

2H23 Market Outlook
Challenging macro trends expected to continue; following prolonged 'super cycle',
steel demand is now expected to moderate
Trading conditions:
• Challenging macro trends expected to continue – inflation and higher interest rates,
tight labour market and the ongoing impact from Covid
• Following prolonged 'super cycle', steel demand is now expected to moderate;
easing activity already occurring in residential construction
• Steel pricing stabilising above pre-Covid levels during 1H although in December and
January international prices have firmed in NZ dollars

Reads like the best is over... like a hold at best. 

aye I thought the reference to supercycle perhaps unintentionally signaled more of a correction rather than a moderation, the later of which they were aiming for.  outlook statements pretty important in this environment.

[lorraina]

Steel & Tube is focused on its 'strengthen and grow' strategies – continuing to strengthen the core of the business and growing in high value products, services and sectors to drive gross margin dollar improvement. Business growth will continue through organic expansion and smaller programmatic acquisitions. Further strategic initiatives are expected to be reflected in results from FY24 onwards.

CEO of Steel & Tube, Mark Malpass, commented: "Following the recent 'super cycle', we are well positioned to respond to moderating demand. We have a strong balance sheet and cashflows, and are actively managing costs and margins per tonne. Customer and employee satisfaction remains at high levels and we are a preferred supplier for projects large and small across a diverse range of industries. Our recent growth investments are performing well and we are continuing to assess new opportunities that complement our existing business and provide growth pathways."

[Shareguy]

Caught up with friend in "the no" who said. Real focus on costs at moment with another round of reduncies just announced.

[Hectorplains]

Caught up with friend in "the no" who said. Real focus on costs at moment with another round of reduncies just announced.

If your negative friend, Mr No, is correct that really should have been disclosed by Malpass.  I've never known redundancies to create an atmosphere where, "employee satisfaction remains at high levels."

[winner (n)]

I drew some lines with my electronic crayons on the STU chart as below

Google says it is a Symmetrical Triangle and the price has 'broken down' through the triangle .... that's bad

Explanation I read was a bit hard to follow but it seems to say that traders would be looking a new low of 75 cents (price went up from about 100 to 150 or 50 cents and could fall by 50 cents when it broke down at say 125)

But heck what do I know about real TA .... probably need to leave that to the experts eh

Chart doesn't look pretty though

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[winner (n)]

I see NZX shows STU divie yield as 11.567%

But it's hard to see how they will be able to pay out more than 8 cents this financial year

Fully imputed gives gross yield of 9%

Not too bad but I marketscreener shows declining dividends over next few years

[winner (n)]

Jeez I have to stop googling symmetrical triangles and stock charting

One out draws a parallel line to the down trend and implies the share price could head down to meet that new line which could act as support.

Think I'll give up googling such stuff now

Maybe KW can enlighten me about triangles / wedges on stock charts

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[Buzz]

@Winner, try the TA bible by Bullkowski https://thepatternsite.com/st.html

Symmetrical triangle:
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 58%/36%
Measure Rule: https://thepatternsite.com/measure.html 
Triangles, Symmetrical, down breakout    B - ((H - L) * 36%)
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