STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[winner (n)]

Thanks buzz ....that gives a low around 106

Seems reasonable ...even on fundamentals.

[Basil]

I see NZX shows STU divie yield as 11.567%

But it's hard to see how they will be able to pay out more than 8 cents this financial year

Fully imputed gives gross yield of 9%

Not too bad but I marketscreener shows declining dividends over next few years

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/STEEL-TUBE-HOLDINGS-LIM-6491420/financials/
Ouch, eps dropping from 18 cps in FY22 to 15 cps then 12 cps for FY24 and FY25.
Only 2 analysts are covering it though.  Maybe they're both wrong?

[Poet]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/STEEL-TUBE-HOLDINGS-LIM-6491420/financials/
Ouch, eps dropping from 18 cps in FY22 to 15 cps then 12 cps for FY24 and FY25.
Only 2 analysts are covering it though.  Maybe they're both wrong?

So if they are right, we could get down to a P/E of 10 at the worst point of the cycle - hardly a disaster.
And they are showing a 25 cps net cashflow for each of the next three years

[Basil]

Was thinking the same Poet, FY24 and FY25 probably the bottom of the cycle so probably somewhere about fair value now.
Genuine question about governance though.  Mostly still the same board that in their "infinite wisdom" turned down Fletchers bid @ $1.90?

[winner (n)]

The 2 analyst who make up the  forecasts at marketscreener seem to be odds with the company rhetoric about the future

Mark's pretty slides haven't convinced the analysts as much as some punters

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[Hectorplains]

So if they are right, we could get down to a P/E of 10 at the worst point of the cycle - hardly a disaster.
And they are showing a 25 cps net cashflow for each of the next three years

Is net cash flow now the preferred performance metric for STU?

[LoungeLizard]

Is net cash flow now the preferred performance metric for STU?

Could be. There's still a governance credibility gap with STU and punters are right to be wary. NP and dividend payouts don't always show the whole picture. Cash doesn't lie.   

[winner (n)]

Could be. There's still a governance credibility gap with STU and punters are right to be wary. NP and dividend payouts don't always show the whole picture. Cash doesn't lie.   

Last couple of cash flow statements have shown STU haven't sold enough steel rods to pay the divie and they've had to have morning tea with the bank manager to borrow some cash to keep the punters happy

[Poet]

Last couple of cash flow statements have shown STU haven't sold enough steel rods to pay the divie and they've had to have morning tea with the bank manager to borrow some cash to keep the punters happy

Latest hy cashflow from operations 41m
Dividend 7m
Dividend covered six times by cashflow
Debt reduced by 11m

[winner (n)]

LAST 12 MONTHS CASHFLOWS

From Operations plus lease costs $2.6
Capex $5.8m (doesn't include the $8.9m to buy a business)
Free Cash Flow - outflow of $3.2

Dividends paid $21.6m

Borrowed $38.0m more

Hope things look better in H2

[Teitei]

LAST 12 MONTHS CASHFLOWS

From Operations plus lease costs $2.6
Capex $5.8m (doesn't include the $8.9m to buy a business)
Free Cash Flow - outflow of $3.2

Dividends paid $21.6m

Borrowed $38.0m more

Hope things look better in H2

Bad effort W69 on a negative posting.

Using H2 F22 & H1 F23 as 12 months financials?

That's pathetic!

I like all the negative postings as they are achieving the desirable outcome but using creative accounting is too obvious!

[Shareguy]

I take little notice of analysts forward earnings figures for STU, as I don't think they understand the company well. I have gone back through Craig's Research and find big differences on actual results and their forecast.

Take FY22 Craig's had forecasts of 13.2 EPS and dividend of 9.2c.

Actual was 18.3 EPS and 13c dividend.

Yes they are forecasting big drops going forward.  I don't think so and have invested accordingly.

[winner (n)]

Wonder if H122+H222 is bad practice ...gives a annual/12 month period eh .......as does  an annual/12 month period H222+H123 but more up to date

And both above annual period eliminate this thing called seasonality

The world doesn't stop at financial period end ......the world carries on

I dont see such a practice as pathetic or creative .....just a way to see what's happened over the last 12 months / annual period.

Over many years I've found it an invaluable way of assessing things and I'll continue to do so

[Teitei]

Wonder if H122+H222 is bad practice ...gives a annual/12 month period eh .......as does  an annual/12 month period H222+H123 but more up to date

And both above annual period eliminate this thing called seasonality

The world doesn't stop at financial period end ......the world carries on

I dont see such a practice as pathetic or creative .....just a way to see what's happened over the last 12 months / annual period.

Over many years I've found it an invaluable way of assessing things and I'll continue to do so

By all means continue to do so as long as it paints a bad picture.

Any chance of doing a H2 F21 + H1 F22 to compare with H2 F22 + H1 F23?  Must paint a pretty bleak picture.

[winner (n)]

Here's a pretty cool STU chart from the database

Annual revenues - MAT being sum of last two report periods

Mark possibly has on the wall with a big mark pointing out when he started as CEO

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